Latest Gold & Silver Price News
In his weekly market review, Frank Holmes of the USFunds.com summarizes this week’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the gold market for gold investors. We are noticing quite some extremes in the gold market. Investors should stay on top of the gold market evolutions.
Volume increased [effort], the highest volume for the week. Price made a slightly higher probe above the last 10 TDs, but note where it closed: mid-range the bar. On increased volume, the mid-range close tells us sellers were aggressive and overcame the effort of buyers sufficient to push price down from the high of the day. In a down trend, the onus is on buyers to effect change. Buyers are not meeting that burden. It is tough to change a trend. Respect it, at all times, until a change has been confirmed.
The mining industry is thinking that it should just die quietly and obediently! I think its value is likely to fall to zero, and its executives will have nothing to say for themselves or their companies all the way to zero. The industry is worthless, and it’s worthless not so much because of the attack on the monetary metals by central banks. It’s worthless because its own shareholders and executives are content to die quietly.
While the price of gold is significantly oversold from a technical perspective, and a rebound to correct the recent over-extension to the downside should be due, the possibility of a relief rally will be largely dependent upon shifting speculation with regard to upcoming Fed statements and decisions.
I’ve been bearish on gold for so long that my successively lower targets have become almost perfunctory. Lately, I’ve focused on a ‘Hidden Pivot’ target at $817, the attainment of which would presumably wash out the last of the die-hard bulls, clearing the way for a resumption of the long-term bull market. Now, however, I am obliged to consider an alternative possibility — i.e., an explosive move without the washout. Although I lack the imagination to envision such world-shaking news as might cause this to happen, I credit a relatively recent Rick’s Picks subscriber, Michael Gibbons, with jarring me awake.
The bearish target at 1059.70 (see chart) seems clear and compelling to me — so much so as to beg the question of why the futures have been thrashing around for the last two weeks just above it. Is this a bullish consolidation? A bearish distribution? Regardless, it is happening in an odd place relative to some clear Hidden Pivot support and resistance levels
No one speculative trader would be allowed to buy or sell 10%, 20% or 40% of any commodity market in a short period of time and neither should a small group of traders, trading in lockstep, be allowed to do the same. Remember we’re talking about a very small number of managed money traders, close to 30 or 50 traders in most markets. Why should 30 or 50 purely speculative CME traders be allowed to set the price for the millions and even billions of world participants who must then take the prices dictated to them?
Could it be that these convincing forecasts are a contrarian indicator? Let’s face it, the “consensus trade” is that gold will and must go lower. When everyone is convinced about an asset moving in one direction, usually the opposite happens.
While, I think the current negative sentiment towards gold is unjustified, and set to continue, as far as I am concerned, the investment case for gold remains intact. The long-term investment case for gold is not based on short-term price movements. I believe every investor should own some physical gold and have it stored out of the banking system. And, if you have not yet included gold in your portfolio this is probably a great time to buy. It may go down lower, but you will almost never find the bottom.
The inflation camp shares the conviction with deflationists that there is too much debt in the system. But they differ on the outcome. Harry Dent and those in his deflation camp figure that central banks and governments will ultimately be powerless to stop default. They think the purchasing power of the dollar will rise against everything else, including gold. We expect default to occur primarily through inflation, with debts stealthily repudiated through repayment in less valuable dollars.
Even with the latest manipulative selling of COMEX Gold futures, price is still maintaining support within the price channel and horizontal support zone. The latest selloff has taken Gold to the median line of the Andrews pitchfork and almost to the 100% Fibonacci extension level. We should see some support in this area even if it is short-lived.
Friday’s rebound looked ever-so-slightly promising, since it followed a moderate selloff that did not quite achieve its ‘D’ target, 1064.00. Now, if bulls can push this erstwhile cinder block above the two peaks shown, it would generate an impulse leg with enough vigor, perhaps, to power a rally into week’s end. The burden of proof will remain on bulls nonetheless, and it should be noted that the last such impulse leg, in mid-June, sputtered out almost immediately, giving way to a $125 decline.