Gold And Silver Directionless, Palladium And Aluminium Bullish

The following is an excerpt from Yamada’s latest monthly update for premium subscribers, released today. We highly recommend subscribing to the monthly in-depth analysis of Louise Yamada on www.lyadvisors.com.

Gold – Directionless

Gold (GOLDS-1,287.81, see Figure 29) has weakened slightly since last month, slipping below both 50- and 200-day MAs, still confined in a year-plus symmetrical triangle. That formation rests midway between the wider trading range of 1,400 (1,420) and 1,300 as price has consolidated over a year.

There remains a series of lower highs all the way from the peak in price and continues within the past year’s trading. Now one might await a move through either resistance at 1,345 from July, or support at 1,242 from May to suggest which direction may provide a trade. The weekly momentum model is just turning negative (see lower arrow) suggesting there could be further weakness. The wider trading parameters above denote more structural intentions.

We reiterate that the support at 1,200 is also now the intersect with the very important level of the 2005 long-term uptrend, representing the bull market for Gold. A breach of this support / uptrend would bode ill for Gold and could suggest a further slip toward 1,150-1,000.

gold_price_weekly_1_september_2014

 

NOTE: The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) depicted herein last month has not been able to lift through resistance and has rolled over again despite the media excitement about gold stocks basing. Some have had good rallies and some of those may be rolling over again. Achieving 28-30 would be needed to lift through the consolidation and further through the 2011 downtrend.

Silver – Struggling Near Support

Silver Spot price (SILV-19.47) has been weaker than Gold in that price is already testing the critical year-plus support at 18.23, again with lower peaks (evidence of selling the rallies), having slipped through support at 20. The weekly momentum has again turned negative suggesting there may be a breach of the above support with further downside risk.

Silver would need to achieve 22 to reverse the more negative profile in place.

Aluminum – Base in Place?

In hearing that Ford is going to move entirely to Aluminum for the F150, we took a quick look at the metal (LA1- 2,081.50, see Figure 30), and there is decidedly an impressive base completing currently. The 2011 downtrend has been penetrated and the year-long base appears complete over the past month-plus. The next price resistance is 2,200 and thereafter, close to 2,400; support 2,000. The weekly and the monthly momentum models have recently turned positive.

aluminium_price_weekly_1_september_2014

 

 

Copper – No Follow Through

The Copper Continuous Futures Contract (HG1-313.50), depicted herein last month, is unchanged in price over the month with minimally positive weekly momentum. There has been little impulse to move higher to address the resistance at 340 or the 2012 downtrend which will intersect 340 over the next quarter (see Figure 31 left, circle). Support remains at 300.

copper_platinum_price_weekly_1_september_2014

 

Platinum – Flip-Flop

Platinum spot price (PLAT-1,423.50, see Figure 31, right) failed miserably to continue the advance through resistance, and reversed to plunge through the 2014 uptrend and return toward 1,400 support. The weekly momentum reverted negative for the first time this year (see arrow). A break of 1,400 could suggest risk again toward the lower trading range boundary from 2013 near 1,300. Now price would need to reclaim the uptrend through 1,478 and then through 1,500 again for another attempt to penetrate the 2011 downtrend (see circle).

 

Palladium – Still Strong

Palladium spot price (PALL-905.50) moved slightly higher through 900 within the uptrend depicted herein last month. The advance continues to be confirmed by the positive weekly and monthly momentum models and the supports remain the same at 850 and 800. Price could continue to advance, notwithstanding interim pullbacks, toward 925, 950 and ultimately toward the old 2001 high near 1,125.

 

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