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Gold Price Reverses Near Key Rectracement Level

| April 15, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold Price Reverses Near Key Rectracement Level

The first chart shows Spot Gold getting a bounce off the 1140 level in mid March and hitting resistance in the 1220 area twice now. I think the long-term trend for gold is down because of the 52-week low in November. Even though the surge to 1300 looked impressive, gold gave it all back with a decline back to the November lows and the current bounce only managed to retrace 50% of the prior decline. At this point, the immediate trend is up, but this is a counter-trend move. A break below support in the 1180 area would signal a resumption of the bigger downtrend and project a move to new lows.

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Gold And Silver Price: A Quiet Week But Watch Draghi’s Speech

| April 13, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold And Silver Price: A Quiet Week But Watch Draghi’s Speech

For the week commencing April 13th, there are quite some economic data and central bank announcements scheduled, as seen in the table below. Tuesday is a busy day with economic data out of the US and China, but they are not very likely to move metals and markets (unless some of the data would be shocking). On Wednesday, the European Central Bank will announce their interest rate decision during a press conference. It seems impossible that the ECB will hike interest rates; the most likely scenario is a status quo, there is a small probability that they will lower interest rates. However, President Draghi could have some drivers in his speech which could create short term volatility in markets and metals. On Friday, the latest CPI figures will be released both in the US and Europe. There is a small chance that the CPI will be significantly higher or lower than the previous months.

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Nothing Of Substance Going On In Precious Metals. Fiat Dollar Controlling?

| April 12, 2015 | Category: Price
Nothing Of Substance Going On In Precious Metals. Fiat Dollar Controlling?

For as long as the fast fading, but still very lethal, US military dominance exists, a renewed bull market in precious metals cannot. It is really that simple. The US, as emperor may not be wearing any clothes, but it still wields the mightiest sword. Sadly, the worst may be yet to come as the US refuses to bow out gracefully to the will of the rest of the world seeking only harmony and growth.

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The Gold-ilocks Zone for Bears

| April 9, 2015 | Category: Price
The Gold-ilocks Zone for Bears

After gapping higher over the weekend, the yellow metal briefly edged above 1220 before reversing and trending lower over the past three days. From a technical perspective, the pair is in a short-term bearish channel, and with today’s break below previous support at 1195, more weakness is favored from here. The path of least resistance remains to the downside, and gold bears may start to eye the three-week low around 1180 next.

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Gold, Silver, Yen & S&P Correlation

| April 9, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold, Silver, Yen & S&P Correlation

Over the last 8 years of gold prices rallying and crashing, the statistical correlation has been about 0.74. Since the all-time high in gold prices in August 2011, the yen-gold correlation has been an astonishing 0.96. Similarly, yen and the S&P 500 show an inverse correlation. It is the same story with silver. The correlation between smoothed silver and smoothed yen over 8 years has been about 0.80 and about 0.97 since August 2011. It has almost been a “one-way” trade since then. It is amazing that the yen, gold, silver, and the inverse S&P have been so tightly correlated (over 0.95) for almost four years …

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Gold Trading Higher Worldwide YoY Except In US Dollar

Gold Trading Higher Worldwide YoY Except In US Dollar

While it is correct that dollar gold is not looking very constructive on the long term chart, it should be said that gold in ALL other currencies looks significantly different. Obviously the monstrous rally in the US dollar since last summer is the reason for the situation we just explained. But gold trading higher worldwide except in countries which use the USD is a constructive sign for gold bulls.

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Gold Price: Is This A Bounce Or More?

Gold Price: Is This A Bounce Or More?

The first chart shows Spot Gold ($GOLD) in a long-term downtrend with lower lows and lower highs since May 2013. Even though gold held the November low around 1140 and bounced the last few weeks, this bounce is still just a counter-trend move within a bigger downtrend. A double bottom is also possible, but such a pattern would not be confirmed until a break above the January high around 1300. Such a move would also break the upper trend line of the falling channel.

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US Debt vs Silver Price Disconnect Has To Be Resolved

| April 6, 2015 | Category: Price
US Debt vs Silver Price Disconnect Has To Be Resolved

Keep It Simple – Stack! Governments borrow and spend, debt increases, and commodity prices inevitably follow. Silver and gold have been money for thousands of years, and still are. Paper substitutes have all failed, either slowly or rapidly, and they will continue to fail, unless governments and central banks responsibly manage the value of currencies (NOT likely).

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Gold And Silver Price: Expect Volatility On Wednesday April 9th

Gold And Silver Price: Expect Volatility On Wednesday April 9th

For the week commencing April 6th, there are almost no economic data scheduled to be announced, as seen in the table below. On Wednesday, however, there are some central bank announcements on the agenda. The Japanese central bank is planned to give a press conference, and the FOMC minutes of the meeting on February 25th and 26h will be published. That is a recipe for potential volatility in almost all markets. We expect Wednesday to be potenially very volatile.

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Gold’s Bull Markets In Europe and Japan Remain Unnoticed

| April 1, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold’s Bull Markets In Europe and Japan Remain Unnoticed

Admittedly, this is one of the worst corrections in the last decades (since gold started trading freely), and there is almost no sign of life in gold and silver since the price crash in April and June of 2013. But under the hood we can observe another picture. Case in point: the price of gold in several other major currencies is showing very bullish setups.

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Gold Price Taking A Well Deserved Rest

| March 30, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold Price Taking A Well Deserved Rest

The recent rally is respectable because Gold pushed through several significant resistance areas in the process. The is break through $1181 to $1188, then the round-number at $1200 along with the 50 day exponential moving average which is also at $1200. After the recent 70 run Gold deserves a break to consolidate its gains and gather energy for the next push higher.

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Events Impacting Gold And Silver In The Week Of March 30th

| March 29, 2015 | Category: Price
Events Impacting Gold And Silver In The Week Of March 30th

For the week commencing March 30th, quite some economic data are scheduled to be announced, as seen in the table below. There is no central bank announcement on the agenda. Tuesday is a busy day, with the European CPI and U.S. consumer confidence data being released, among many other data. We believe the nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate in the U.S. on Friday have the potential to create some volatility in markets and metals, but at the same time, as it will be Good Friday, we expect a neutral reaction. The “joker” in the coming week(s) is the evolution of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Obviously, there is a potential for increased demand of a “safe haven” asset if things would go wrong in the Middle East.

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What Moved Gold And Silver Prices? Uranus Square Pluto And Bab el-Mandeb. What?!

| March 28, 2015 | Category: Price
What Moved Gold And Silver Prices? Uranus Square Pluto And Bab el-Mandeb. What?!

So many “experts” have so much to say in correlating the current prices for gold and silver with factors like how much gold China and Russia have been accumulating, the shortages of and demand for physical PMs, hypothecating, rehypothocating [aka stealing] of gold by Western Central Banks, the record sales for gold and silver coins, world-wide, etc, etc, etc. Yet, with all of the pinpoint accuracy in reporting, backed by statistics, graphs, charts with arrows drawn in to show the next direction [always wrong] for PMs, there has been little demonstrable cause and effect relations between events and prices. We have two.

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Events Impacting Gold And Silver In The Week Of March 23d

| March 23, 2015 | Category: Price
Events Impacting Gold And Silver In The Week Of March 23d

For the week commencing March 23d, some economic data are scheduled to be announced but there is no central bank decision planned, as seen in the table below. Mr. Draghi and Mr. Yellen will have each one a speech during the week, but they are not announcing a decision from the central bank. CPI in the U.S. and new home sales are scheduled on Tuesday; unless the CPI will be very surprising, these are not the type of economic data that are moving precious metals prices. However, the U.S. GDP data on Friday have the potential to create some volatility in markets and metals.

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