Metals Complex: Every Which Way but Up

Gold – Unresolved, But Weak

Gold Spot price (GOLDS-1,190.55) hasn’t budged much and is still holding between a series of lower highs, below the 2005 uptrend, and support at the 1,138 low from 2014 (see Figure 29, left). A lift through the downtrend at 1,271, or a break of support at 1,138 should determine the next move. The structural bear market remains in place technically for Gold.

Both momentum models, weekly and monthly, are negative but flat; the descending triangle traced out since late 2013 suggests resolution to the downside. The next risk, with a break of support, retains the target of 1,000 which represents support from the 2008-2009 consolidation (see oval). A measured move from the back of the triangle projected down from current levels arrives at 1,026 and corroborates the next target / support.


Aluminum – Poised to Reverse the Base

Aluminum (LA 1-1,708.25, see Figure 29, right) has given back all the gains breaching the 2015 low of 1,738, and appears poised to break to new lows below 1,645. Protection warranted.

Silver – Neutral

Silver Spot price (SILV-16.75) remains directionless between support at 15 and resistance at 18.

Copper – Retreating from Major Resistance

The Copper Continuous Futures Contract (HG1- 272.80) rallied perfectly into both major resistance (see Figure 30, left) at 300 and the declining MAs. Copper now appears in retreat, with the monthly momentum remaining negative throughout the contratrend rally.

The recent low at 250 may be tested again. Were 250 to be breached, 200 would emerge as the next target. Price may also move sideways for a time between resistance at 300 and new support at 250.


Platinum – Poised to Break Down

Platinum spot price (PLAT-1,113.05, see Figure 30, right) spent the month flat below resistance at 1,170 and above the March low at 1,100 but now appears to be weakening to test the low. With the monthly momentum negative and still falling, the chance of a break of support is likely and would suggest a target of 1,000, back toward 2009 levels.

Palladium – Still Neutral

Palladium spot price (PALL-777.25), depicted herein last month is unchanged, still below the 2008 uptrend and neutral between the 835 resistance and 745 support with little indication for the next move. The monthly momentum is negative but flattening. A breach of either price level would define the next direction.

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