Author Archive: Zeal Research

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Big Inflation Coming

| November 10, 2012 | Articles: Insights
Big Inflation Coming

Well, Americans voted and the winner is inflation. Half our voting populace inexplicably decided to award a second term to Obama. Four more years of mind-boggling record deficits and record national debt growth! Obama’s Administration spent roughly 50% more than the government took in, which can essentially only be financed in two ways. Borrowing from foreigners and running the printing presses. The latter of course is pure inflation. And the Fed bent over backwards with its quantitative-easing campaigns to buy massive amounts of the Treasury debt Obama ran up on our children’s credit cards. It created trillions of new fiat dollars out of thin air to purchase Treasuries to finance […]

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Silver ETF Impact

Silver ETF Impact

Silver is no doubt tiny on the grand commodities scale. But its attractiveness, spearheaded by a 1000%+ bull-to-date gain to its latest high, has spawned a wide range of products for investors to partake in. And one of the most unique and powerful is the SLV iShares Silver Trust ETF. This ETF’s objective is quite simple, to mirror the price of silver (minus a small management fee of course). But while simple in its objective, two unique traits have allowed SLV to take the silver market by storm. First is SLV offers a bridge for stock-market capital to track the price movements of a high-flying commodity, which historically had only […]

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Stock Bull Topping

Stock Bull Topping

With the US stock markets near major multi-year highs, traders are naturally very optimistic. Predictions abound for a continuing advance to new all-time highs. But behind this happy facade, the secular picture is actually quite bearish. The powerful stock bull of recent years appears to be topping in recent months. This means the odds are ballooning that a new bear market is being born or soon will be. Few, if any, things are more important for stock investors to understand than the bull-bear cycles. They can only be ignored at great peril. Investors who refuse to study them inevitably end up buying stocks at the wrong times in these cycles. […]

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Cheap Gold Stocks part 4

Cheap Gold Stocks part 4

After surging sharply in August and early September, gold stocks have been consolidating sideways ever since. Naturally this loss of momentum has sapped the nascent trader enthusiasm for this sector. But stalling out temporarily certainly doesn’t negate gold stocks’ dazzling fundamentals. They remain deeply undervalued relative to gold, the metal that drives their profits and hence ultimately their stock prices. While sentiment (greed and fear) dominates short-term stock-price swings, over the long run stock prices are nearly exclusively determined by fundamentals. Investors buy stocks to own fractional stakes in the underlying companies’ profit streams. The bigger those profits grow, the higher the stocks are bid of the companies earning them. […]

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Fed QE and Gold, Silver

| October 6, 2012 | Articles: Insights
Fed QE and Gold, Silver

After the Federal Reserve launched QE3 last month, investors and speculators are growing excited about its future impact on gold and silver. Though the Fed’s QE3 campaign started out relatively small, its open-ended nature is utterly unprecedented. Thus an unknown amount of future inflation will be spawned. Naturally gold and silver thrive in such environments, as they proved during QE1 and QE2. Of course QE stands for quantitative easing. Even as a lifelong student of the financial markets, I don’t recall hearing this term before late 2008’s epic stock panic. Central banks are notorious for trying to cloak their actions. So although “quantitative easing” was universally derided historically, it was […]

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Silver Miners ETF

Silver Miners ETF

It’s hard to believe that silver was trading at only $4 just 11 years ago. And amazingly it was only 7 years ago that silver had hit $10 for the first time in nearly two decades. Now at over $30 and rising, silver is flexing its muscles as one of the best-performing assets of the last decade. There’s no arguing that silver’s secular bull has been spectacular. Since its 2001 low, silver had soared a staggering 1094% to its 2011 high. And based on its structural fundamentals, silver’s bull still likely has plenty of room to run in the years to come. Investors who’ve been accumulating this precious metal over […]

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New Silver Upleg

New Silver Upleg

Silver has certainly enjoyed an impressive run of late, catapulting nearly a third higher since mid-summer. Because this surge looks nearly vertical on short-term charts, some traders are getting nervous about this rally’s staying power. While silver may indeed be temporarily overbought, its recent strength actually looks like the vanguard of a major new upleg. Silver’s advance is likely just getting started. Skepticism of silver’s potential continues to run rampant among speculators and investors. But this is par for the course after a major correction. Back in the spring of 2011, silver rocketed parabolic in a gargantuan upleg. But it became wildly overbought, hitting the most extreme greed levels of […]

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Silver Bull Seasonals 2

Silver Bull Seasonals 2

Silver is mined year-round at a fairly constant rate across the globe. Thus it is somewhat counterintuitive that this metal would exhibit marked seasonal tendencies tied to the calendar. But it sure does. Unlike the agricultural commodities, silver’s seasonality is driven by fluctuations in demand rather than supply. And silver is just entering its strongest time of the year, which is very bullish for it and its miners’ stocks. The primary driver of silver price action is gold. The vast majority of the time with few exceptions, silver’s fortunes are closely slaved to gold’s. Investors and speculators are only likely to plow capital into silver and drive up its price […]

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Gold-Stock Breakout

Gold-Stock Breakout

After weathering a long consolidation followed by a major correction, gold stocks remain deeply out of favor today. But this bearish sentiment is slowly yielding as gold powers higher in its usual autumn rally. Gold stocks are starting to show signs of life again. And after their strong advance since late July, they are now on the verge of a major upside breakout. Odds are this event will herald a major new upleg. Despite the gold-stock sector commanding some of the biggest gains of the past decade, gold stocks have become a four-letter word. The flagship gold-stock index, the HUI, essentially stalled out way back in late 2010. Then it […]

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Gold-Stock ETF Rising

Gold-Stock ETF Rising

As gold enters into a season of fundamental strength and what should be a powerful new upleg, there ought to be rekindled interest in gold stocks. In fact, if gold indeed rallies the gold-stock sector will likely see a much-more-powerful upleg than the metal considering how oversold it’s been. And one of the first places investors will go when they are drawn to this sector is the venerable GDX Gold Miners ETF. GDX was the first gold-stock ETF when it was born in 2006. And with net assets of nearly $8.0b, today it is the largest of its kind. GDX’s strong correlation history with gold has made it a popular […]

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Contrary Gold Futures

Contrary Gold Futures

With gold awakening from its usual summer slumber, traders are getting more excited about its prospects. Presumably this shifting sentiment will even grow to encompass futures traders, who’ve been incredibly bearish on the yellow metal for months now. While traders hold futures guys in high esteem, they are just as susceptible to groupthink as everyone else. They are actually a powerful contrary indicator for gold. Just a month ago, it seemed like you couldn’t even give gold away. Bearishness abounded, and commentary and analysis were overwhelmingly pessimistic and calling for major new lows soon. Go back and skim the stuff published on gold in mid-July, and you’ll quickly see what […]

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Gold in Stock Bears

Gold in Stock Bears

With the odds for a new stock bear growing, prudent contrarian investors are looking for bear-resistant destinations for their hard-earned capital. Plain old cash tops the list, as it will not only preserve wealth but increase its relative stock buying power as the markets grind lower. But why merely sideline capital if it can still be grown even during a stock bear? Gold has proven its ability to thrive in such markets. Last week I wrote an essay on the rising chances a new stock bear is looming. This primarily has to do with the bull-bear cycles. The stock markets endlessly march forward in a series of alternating bulls followed […]

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Stock Bear Looming?

Stock Bear Looming?

With the US stock markets challenging a major multi-year high, investors are feeling pretty complacent these days. But unseen below the placid surface, a serious risk is arising from the depths. With each passing day, the odds grow that a new stock bear is imminent. As these merciless beasts typically maul the markets until stock prices are cut in half, they are dangerous threats that cannot be taken lightly. The stock markets perpetually march forwards in great bull-bear cycles. All bull markets eventually mature and top when greed and complacency grow excessive and everyone willing to buy has already bought. Then bear markets are born, which don’t run their course […]

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Gold Mining Healthy?

In 2011 gold-mine production came in at an all-time record high.  And in 2012 experts anticipate production to be even higher, edging above the previous year’s 87m-ounce tally.  From the looks of it, the major source of gold’s supply is in fine fettle.  But is the gold-mining industry truly healthy? In attempting to answer this question it is important to understand how we got to the production levels we’re at today, and then take a look at some of the structural fundamentals that may impact this industry going forward.  And in terms of how we got here, it was nothing short of remarkable. Interestingly mine production had actually been on […]

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