Tag: trader dan

Silver Fails at 32.50 Support, Attempting to Hold at $32

Silver Fails at 32.50 Support, Attempting to Hold at $32

You can see on the weekly chart that silver failed (once again) to extend through stubbornly strong overhead resistance near $35. Having done so, it is now setting back as speculative longs are getting flushed out. Additionally, fresh shorting is occurring. The metal looks like it wants to drift lower yet unless it can pop back over $32.50 before the weekly trading ends. If it does not, odds favor a move down towards the 50 week moving average near the $31 level. That would put it back near the middle of the very broad trading range that it has been stuck in for more than  year now and effectively leave it […]

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Hedge Fund Silver Shorts getting Squeezed Out

Hedge Fund Silver Shorts getting Squeezed Out

Take a look at the following charts of the positions of the hedge fund community in the silver market and notice what has happened to them as a result of the break of overhead resistance levels on the technical price charts. Shorts are being forced out as fresh longs invade the market. You should also note that this data does not include today’s HUGE move higher which no doubt caught a large number of fresh top pickers off guard. Author: Dan Norcini  

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Silver Tacks on the “30” Handle

Silver Tacks on the “30” Handle

Short Covering from panicked speculators has led to a sharp rise in silver prices that is also drawing in new buyers who chase momentum. Note that hedge funds while remaining net longs, had also begun playing silver from the short side as the European sovereign debt crisis had most investors looking at the slowing economic growth environment as one in which to short both copper and silver.  Yesterday’s change of wording in the FOMC Statement sent shock waves through the shorts who ran like hell setting the stage for a signficant amount of technically related buying in today’s session which commenced in Asian trade last evening. I am expecting the […]

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Stealth Mode Rally in Silver Maybe not so Stealthy Anymore

Stealth Mode Rally in Silver Maybe not so Stealthy Anymore

I remarked last week that silver had been slyly working its way higher in very quiet fashion but was knocking on the door of overhead resistance. Today it broke that resistance and so far is doing it in convincing fashion. Based purely on technical factors, it should try to make a run at $29 where heavier supply awaits. That stands between it and a handle of “30” which will most certainly catch the attention of the momentum crowd. Take a look at the shorter term moving averages (not labelled). These are the 10 day and 20 day respectively. Notice that late last week BOTH MOVING AVERAGES crossed above the longer […]

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Silver Quietly Sneaking Higher

Silver Quietly Sneaking Higher

Silver has managed to rally right to the top of its consolidation pattern without any fanfare and I should add, the participation of a great deal of managed money flows. In other words, without the benefit of the momentum crowd. Call it a type of stealth rally. I find this very interesting as it is occuring against the backdrop of rising Treasury yields and a rising equity market. Clearly, for whatever the reason, something seems to be occurring on this inflation front that is moving below the radar screen of many investors. Could silver be sniffing out the first whiff of an inflation play? Take a look at the following […]

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HUI Chart – August 16, 2012

HUI Chart – August 16, 2012

The Mining Sector shares have shown some strong performance over the past three weeks having solidly rebounced from down near 390 moving up through several overhead resistance levels. A push through overhead resistance near 440 sets up a run towards a major resistance level centered near 460, which is the point that needs to be bested for a trending move to the upside to develop.

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Gold Retreats from the Top of its Trading Range

Gold Retreats from the Top of its Trading Range

Nothing doing on gold being able to break out from its consolidation pattern. Last week I showed a chart with gold right at the very top of that range and working into a heavy resistance level. Today it failed to better that resistance and was shoved back lower meaning that the odds favor it working lower within that range from here as we wait for the next round of buying support to surface. It should be able to garner buying near $1600 initially on down towards $1585 should that not hold it. Keep in mind that this market must have a spark to take it up and out of this […]

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Gold and Silver Continue Marking Time

Gold and Silver Continue Marking Time

Both Gold and Silver remain in consolidation patterns with tightening ranges as speculative HOT money flows which are exiting are being met by value-based buying and accumulation by stronger hands. The loss of speculative interest in the precious metals over the last few months can be seen by the steady decline in overall open interest (the number of contracts open). Generally speaking, whenever speculators are interested in establishing positions in a particular market, the open interest will rise. When they are not, the open interest will fall. Look at the following open interest chart of gold and tell me which of the two above-mentioned possibilities is occuring? Answer – speculative […]

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Dan Norcini: If This Happens It Will Devastate The Gold Shorts

Today acclaimed commodity trader Dan Norcini told King World News, “Once you had the 50 day moving average in gold violated to the upside, then you had a much larger wave of short covering which began to occur.” Norcini also said, “The momentum crowd, that was waiting for $1,600 to be breached, then took over and the move has continued to feed on itself.” Norcini also discussed a key level which “… is where you will really see the shorts panic.” But first, here is what he had to say about the recent action in gold: “The move in gold we have been seeing was precipitated by an article which […]

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Precious Metals Succumbing to Deflationary Forces Today

Precious Metals Succumbing to Deflationary Forces Today

Both Gold and Silver are under selling pressure today as the sell off in the grains seems to have pushed a large amount of hot money out of the commodity sector. Soybeans are currently locked at limit down as is the front month corn contract. Talk that Smithfield is importing corn from Brazil has sent supply side bulls scurrying for cover and demand side bears are pressing their case. The pool in the July was 112K at one time and is now down to 26K currently. In the November Beans, the pool is at 37K as I write this. Traders had been bidding up commodities in general of late as […]

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