Tag: technical analysis

Fiction, Fairy Tales, and Fiat

Fiction, Fairy Tales, and Fiat

Do young Americans today know anything about economics? No, they don’t, according to a study during the 2016 presidential primary season, which says lots of other Americans don’t either. The survey found 58% of millennials favor government-run socialism (statistically 6 out of 10), while a nearly identical number (64%) don’t want government interference in free markets. The incompatible findings make no sense, unless… Americans aged 18-24 simply don’t understand the real meanings of either concept. Sadly, the study says that’s true of one-third of all Americans. Not a clue. The evidence is the large following behind avowed socialist Bernie Sanders during his presidential campaign. This lack of understanding is concerning, […]

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Gold, Silver, Copper Testing Six-Year Lows

| November 12, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold, Silver, Copper Testing Six-Year Lows

With the dollar having recently risen to a new seven-month high, commodity prices are in retreat. The brown line in Chart 1 shows the CRB Index (of nineteen commodity markets) falling to the lowest level since August (through yesterday). That commodity selling started in mid-October just as the U.S. Dollar Index started rising. A rising dollar almost always results in lower commodity prices (and stocks tied to them). The commodity selloff has been quite broad and includes industrial and previous metals, energy prices, and agriculturals. Several of those markets are testing six-year lows.

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Gold And Silver At Make Or Break Level, As Dollar Breaks Out Big Time!

| November 9, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold And Silver At Make Or Break Level, As Dollar Breaks Out Big Time!

The metals sold off last week. Gold is testing righ now its August lows. This is a critical price level, gold bulls would like to see this price level hold, otherwise a washout (capitulation-alike) decline could be in the cards. As for silver, it is holding up slightly better. According to the Andrews Pitchfork methodology from PitchforkPlayground.com, gold has been whacked hard as the US Dollar rallies. Support is occurring at the lower median line extension of the modified-Schiff pitchfork and the July/August lows. The outlook of the precious metals is clearly not supported by the secular breakout of the U.S. dollar. As the multi-decade chart shows, the dollar has broken out of its declining secular trendline, earlier this year, and is about to confirm its breakout by moving higher from these price levels.

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Gold Within Striking Distance Of 5-Year After NFP

| November 7, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold Within Striking Distance Of 5-Year After NFP

Based on the secondary indicators, a case can be made for at least a short-term bounce in the coming week. While the MACD is predictably trending lower below both its signal line and the “0” level, showing strongly bearish momentum, the RSI indicator has finally reached oversold territory (below 30). The last time the RSI indicator was this low, gold formed a medium-term bottom just below the 1100 level and rallied for the next three months. Bulls will be hoping that history repeats itself next week.

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Technicals: Gold Working Its Way Higher

Technicals: Gold Working Its Way Higher

Gold is working its way higher with a nice pullback to what should be support along the median line of this modified-Schiff pitchfork. This chart is meant to emphasize the failed triple-bottom zone where, IMO, a significant amount of resistance can be expected. After a multi-year downtrend many people were expecting the $1180’ish level to be the bottom. When it failed in late-2014 sentiment became very dark which of course set the stage for a quick rally up to $1300. Breaking above this triple-bottom zone and establishing it as support again will be a major milestone.

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Gold’s Bullish Flag Breakout Targets $1200

| October 22, 2015 | Category: Technicals
Gold’s Bullish Flag Breakout Targets $1200

Despite a modicum of weakness today, gold’s technical outlook remains optimistic in the near-term. After peaking near 1190 last week, gold has nudged its way back down to 1165 as of writing. The shallow, controlled pullback after the big rally of the previous days has created a clear bullish flag pattern. It’s worth noting that, despite its name, this pattern is only seen as a bullish sign if we see a breakout above the top of the flag (currently near 1180).

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Gold: Third Time’s The Charm? Amazing Chart.

| October 19, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold: Third Time’s The Charm? Amazing Chart.

Gold has broken above its 200-day average for the first time in 100 days once again. That’s the third time in the past five years. It has had multiple failed breakouts after being below its 200-day average for more than 100 days several times in the past 40 years. The third time it managed to break above its average coincided with sustained rallies during the next 1-3 years.

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How To Know When Gold’s Bull Market Has Resumed?

| October 15, 2015 | Category: Price
How To Know When Gold’s Bull Market Has Resumed?

We are closely watching gold’s 90 week moving average (WMA), which was broken in December 2012, and, by doing so, confirmed the start of gold’s bear market. The 90 WMA comes in at $1226.96 /oz, and it will be a critical test for the precious metals complex. At least 3 weekly closes above its 90 WMA will prove to be a confirmation of gold moving out of its bear market.

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Gold Bottomed After Recovering From Its 50% Retracement?

| October 15, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold Bottomed After Recovering From Its 50% Retracement?

The monthly bars in the chart show that the spot price of gold has retraced exactly 50% of its ten-year bull market between 2001 and 2011. The fifty percent retracment line often acts as a major support level. It’s also noteworthy that the RSI line has been trending sideways near oversold territory. All of which suggests that precious metals may be scraping bottom.

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A Detailed Technical Look At Gold’s Breakout

A Detailed Technical Look At Gold’s Breakout

There has finally been some positive price action on Gold ($GOLD) and to some extent on the gold miners. Let’s take a look. Gold has been building this red wedge for almost three years now. The past two weeks it broke above the trend line and tonight we’ll see a taller candle approaching horizontal resistance around $1180.

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Gold & Silver Prices At Critical Juncture

| October 12, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold & Silver Prices At Critical Juncture

Gold is showing some strength in recent weeks. Here we see that price has pushed above the upper median line of the bearish Andrews pitchfork.This is encouraging but price now has to deal with significant resistance in the $1160-1170 area.

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Silver Prices Winding Up for Potential Breakout

| October 5, 2015 | Category: Price
Silver Prices Winding Up for Potential Breakout

The weekly silver chart now shows an interesting wedge pattern developing. Silver prices briefly touched the bottom of the wedge last week before closing near the top. A solid weekly close above $15.50 would represent a bullish upside breakout, while a decisive break below $14.50 would carry bearish near-term implications.

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Technical Short-Term Bullish Signals on Gold

| September 22, 2015 | Category: Technicals
Technical Short-Term Bullish Signals on Gold

Gold executed the bullish declining wedge with last week’s breakout. Confirmation is arriving in the form of a new PMO BUY signal and a STTM BUY signal that triggered when the 5-EMA crossed above the 20-EMA. We await a positive 20/50-EMA crossover to retire the ITTM SELL signal.

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What Needs to Happen on the Gold Chart To Become Bullish

| September 22, 2015 | Category: Technicals
What Needs to Happen on the Gold Chart To Become Bullish

Monday’s moderate weakness looks innocuous in the context of the bullishness of the 240-minute chart shown. Notice that the presumptive C-D phase of the rally begun from 1081.40 in early August stalled precisely at the 1141.90 midpoint pivot. This confirms the authority and reliability of the pattern itself, while also shortening the odds that a decisive push past p would go at least to p2=1164.00, or to D=1186.10 if any higher.

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