Although gold and silver had one of their worst days of the year. Overall the technical damage is limited. However, the fact that silver and the miners declined much sharper than gold is not a good sign. The short term picture for the precious metals complex is mixed with a positive bias.
Tag: silver outlook
In this interview with Sean Rakhimov, the current market action is being discussed. Rakhimov believes that once the $26/ounce price point in silver will mark reversal of the ongoing downward trend. Once that silver price breached, silver investors should set their sights on the next resistance level—$32/ounce. And if that threshold is breached, silver will test $50/ounce and more. Furthemore, silver miners should be well positioned to ride this trend perhaps several multiples higher.
There is an extremely interesting development brewing in the silver market. Chances are high this will turn out bullish, although one should not exclude a bearish outcome. On the near term, two important indicators are flashing a potential key reversal, at least for the short and mid term. First, sentiment is at an important pivot point. Second, the long term chart seems to be accomplishing a multi year chart pattern. Let’s review both in this article.
While both the technical and the fundamental outlooks for silver have improved, it’s important to note that the pair remains within a longer-term downtrend. Indeed, if prices do head higher next week, we could see resistance emerge around the 2-month high at 20.00, which also marks the bearish trend line off the August 2013 high. As long as that resistance near 20 holds, the silver’s longer-term bias will remain to the downside.
Since 2008 the RSI of the ratio has made 7 important lows below 30 that were also matched with a decent bottom in the silver price. There was also a quickly reversed bottom in the RSI in May of 2013 but silver prices were still falling and showed no sign of a bottom until early July. The RSI of the ratio made another low under 30 on May 30, 2014 and turned higher on June 6, 2013. Silver prices look like they have also turned up. This is the 8th such low since 2008.
Markets are quite ironic at times, but the pressure continues to build. Here is an interest fact. When it comes to the price itself, there has been no change over the 12 month and 6 month time frames. Consider the fact that Silver traded at around $19 in June 2013 and it also traded around $19 in December 2013.
The bubble in silver and gold is coming – it did not occur in 2011. Expect stormy weather and higher silver and gold prices ahead. When? Ask the High-Frequency-Traders, JP Morgan, the Treasury department, or just wait for demand to overwhelm physical supply in the relatively near future.
The combination of long term chart support (if it can hold of course) in both copper and silver, extreme silver short positions by technical funds, and relaxing of extreme copper short positions, could be a healthy mix for silver going forward. It is worth to following this up closely, but for now we consider this a positive for both metals.
After three years of declining silver prices, Jeff Clark believes the bear market is coming to an end. In particular, he is looking at several data points which he explains in this article. From an historical perspective, it seems that we have had 7 bear markets over the past four decades. Four of them lasted longer and three were shorter. Four declined less than today; two were about the same; and only one was significantly deeper.
There appears to be far more downside risk in the S&P than in silver. Silver has had three bad years while the S&P has had five good years. It is time for both markets to reverse. Examine the following graph of Silver versus the Silver to S&P ratio. It tells me the ratio has returned to levels seen in 2008 and that the ratio follows the price of silver.
Whichever option you choose, following the gold and silver price per ounce is an easy way to monitor your investment. With both precious metals looking to make a recovery this year, 2014 could be a great time to add silver to your portfolio.
In the big picture of things, Morgan does not consider the $25 resistance level as THE most important fact. If silver goes to $100 an ounce, which is line with Morgan’s expectations, it will not make a difference whether you bought at $20 or $30. From that point of view, the grey metal is now in a bear cycle during a secular bull market. After gold and silver have gone up for 12 years in a row, it went lower the 13th year. There is nothing unusual about that, as all markets go up and down.
I’m not convinced that the June low was the final low for this prolonged bear period that currently exists within this precious metals bull market. A final capitulation could be on the cards and arrive sometime this summer, maybe May/June time. The USD refuses to trade below the ‘79’ level even though it has tested this level no less than six times over the last two years.