Tag: silver outlook
This does not bode well for the short and medium term. We anticipate at least a test of the recent lows; even a lower low is in the cards. However, the good news is that it could become the final (washout) bottom, setting up for a huge buying opportunity!
While the next Commitment of Traders positioning report will be released tomorrow, the current data we have available shows that hedge funds and other speculators are extremely optimistic on precious metals, and in particular Silver. We are at record high managed money net longs (hedge funds), which must be very surprising to gold bugs. The fact that the price has not made a higher high nor cleared the 200 day moving average – and yet every Tom, Dick and Henry piled into this trade – tells us there is still room further downside. Obviously we are wrong with a tight stop above the 200 day moving average, however looking at the dumb money positioning and various bloggers opinions, we believe there is a lot of potential disappointment coming.
The latest Commitments of Traders report showed an eagerness to sell the metals, in particular gold and silver. Both are at levels that coincided with peaks in the metals over the past three years. In silver, hedges now have their largest short position since 2010. As noted last week, this is a huge test for metals and silver in particular. If it can continue to rally in the face of heavy pressure from hedgers, it will be an excellent sign that the bear market is likely over.
Volatility in silver prices has been low. Periods of low volatility have always been followed by periods of high volatility. The most likely increase in silver volatility is a price spike much higher. There are many financial and political instabilities that could drive silver prices far higher. The next 6 – 9 months should be dangerous and volatile for most asset classes. Silver looks like a far better choice than bonds or equities at this time.
Short-term traders may want to wait for more evidence to help tip the scales. A break above converging resistance in the 17.80-90 zone would be a strong bullish signs and would open the door for a move up to 18.50 next. On the other hand, a breakdown back below the 200-day MA at 17.00 could target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the ABCD pattern at 16.20 or lower.
Exponentially increasing systems cannot last forever. Our problem is that the global financial system is based on exponentially increasing debt, energy usage, population, and exploitation of natural resources. This appears to work nicely, especially for the financial and political elite, in the early years of the exponential increases. However, we are approaching the inevitable end of the exponential increases – perhaps not in a few months – but our systems probably will not last another decade. In the meantime, the plan seems to be “Party On!”
Monthly Prices: Silver is “over-sold” based on the charts, the TDI oscillator, and many other oscillators. Expect silver prices to rise. The gold to silver ratio is high which indicates relatively inexpensive silver prices and higher silver prices ahead. Weekly Prices: Same as monthly prices – “over-sold” and ready to rally. Daily Prices: They are also “over-sold” but pretty much controlled by the High Frequency Trading algorithms and the temporary needs of the “powers-that-be.”
Just like gold, our stash of silver will help us maintain our standard of living—but may be even more practical to use for small purchases. And in a high-inflation/decaying-dollar scenario, the silver price is likely to exceed consumer price inflation, giving us further purchasing power protection. The bottom line is that the current silver price should be seen as a long-term buying opportunity. This may or may not be our last chance to buy at these levels for this cycle, but if you like bargains, silver’s neon “Sale!” sign is flashing like a disco ball.
Your opportunity is to own silver today, for less than the cost an actual mining company can even produce it for. This is investment is not an IF question, but a When question…. When silver rises…When the price explodes…When the shorts get squeezed out…
Silver prices have increased but in a disorderly manner. Over 40 years of silver prices can be represented by four zones of megaphone shaped price patterns. My round number target is $100 or more in 2016 – 2019. Although I hope that the powers-that-be will not choose to create hyperinflation in the US, if hyperinflation does occur, the $100 target will be easily bypassed and much higher prices will be “in play.”
In this interview with Sean Rakhimov, the current market action is being discussed. Rakhimov believes that once the $26/ounce price point in silver will mark reversal of the ongoing downward trend. Once that silver price breached, silver investors should set their sights on the next resistance level—$32/ounce. And if that threshold is breached, silver will test $50/ounce and more. Furthemore, silver miners should be well positioned to ride this trend perhaps several multiples higher.
There is an extremely interesting development brewing in the silver market. Chances are high this will turn out bullish, although one should not exclude a bearish outcome. On the near term, two important indicators are flashing a potential key reversal, at least for the short and mid term. First, sentiment is at an important pivot point. Second, the long term chart seems to be accomplishing a multi year chart pattern. Let’s review both in this article.