This simple model, which uses only four cycles and an exponential increase, indicates that a low in the silver price was expected approximately February – July 2013, and that the next high is expected approximately March – October 2014 in the $50 – $60 range. Further, the model suggests that a silver price of $90 – $110 is possible in the September 2015 – March 2016 time period. Do not depend solely on a model such as this; it is one of many tools.
While the markets have been very volatile lately, hence difficult to predict, it is reasonable to expect a bounce in the price of gold and silver. We hasten to say that nobody can predict the future, so our expectation could turn out to be wrong. To be more precise, the probability of higher prices is higher than the probability of lower prices, at least in the short run. Here is why.
If you choose to stay in the banking system, expect to take losses on anything held in a bank. Read that sentence as many times as it takes to have it sink in. What have the bankers been hell-bent on destroying and discrediting? Gold and silver.
Unfortunately, there is not, that I can see, a simple pattern that predicts the next low in the price of silver. Markets seldom make it that easy. However, there are patterns that provide valuable information to help illuminate the “big picture” perspective of where the current price of silver lies in the up-down-up-down cycle of prices.
For all the short-comings of the paper prices reported by the COMEX and what resulting charts, are saying, they will be used until something better comes along. Regardless of what the charts show, one should continue to buy physical gold and silver, personally hold it, on a regular basis. Fiat currencies will continue to be debased by governments.
Will the price of gold and silver continue to go lower. We think they will. Does that mean you should wait before buying more? That has now become a personal decision that needs to be viewed in the context of what has been expressed above, and there are so many other instances that can be cited.
Any rational person should question whether long term silver investors are 100% wrong, especially in light of the recent notable decline in the price of silver. Nevertheless, if they ultimately conclude that silver investors are probably not wrong, then prudence would dictatethat at least some allocation of their investment portfolio to properly held precious metals would be appropriate.
The metals look at least due for a bounce. The levels are so extreme that they need to recover. If a price rally would soon occur, it is very important to monitor what the evolution would be of the speculative length and the open interest for metals.
Silver this week also finally shows that sentiment has also finally fallen to bull market lows. We know that when sentiment reaches these levels of extremes (see Green lines on below chart), that it has always marked a significant low. As Silver has retraced back to its 2 year support area (low $26 area), sentiment has dropped even further this time compared to past lows.
Last year my long term projection was for the markets to continue higher along with the dollar. The dollar has continued higher while the Dow and now the S&P have made new all time highs. This trend could continue throughout the year and we could see the dollar continue to gain strength.
Debt, money supply, and the prices for most commodities have exponentially increased over the past 42 years. Prices for crude oil and silver have substantially increased but inconsistently. I feel confident that the national debt and prices for crude oil, cigarettes, silver, and most other consumer items will drastically increase in the next few years.
What this tells you is that your money is no longer safe in any financial institution, in any country. The banking cartel smells new blood, easy prey: direct confiscation of deposits. What everyone now knows, or should, is that all money deposited into a bank becomes an unsecured loan. This is the earliest warning you will ever receive. You no longer control or own your money, once you deposit it into the hands of financial hyenas.
The latest Commitment of Traders Report is out. It shows a very interesting evolution in gold: total open interest has decreased significantly. At the same time, the commercials have decreased their short positions slightly (rather insignificant) but increased their long positions.
The weekly positions by the large traders have a bullish setup. Short term the price of gold and silver could still see some weakness, but the setup looks like it could rally at any moment. Mainly silver has an extraordinary setup.
This is no longer about which asset is performing better? This is all about which asset will preserve wealth the best. Gold has a 5,000 year history. Even the thieving central bankers are buying gold!
Gold And Silver – Greater Certainty Is Found In Charts
We can assert the trend is down because of lower lows and lower highs. What can be seen, at this point, is a very small range, so far, following a small range in May that closed poorly. What we know for certain is that the downtrend has not yet changed, so lower prices can be expected. We may hold an opinion that gold will ultimately be considerably higher in value, but there is no confirmation that price has begun to rally.
JPMorgan Now Long Gold. A Game Changer?
JP Morgan was able to maneuver itself to the long side of the gold market while speculators (which by nature are long during the bull market) have been pushed to the short side. Does it mean that the gold price will move up right away? No, although it could. Timing a price move is not what COT is about. But with the largest holder of gold futures contract on the long side of the market things could seem less bearish as the picture that has been painted lately.
Time Cycle Model for Silver Price
This simple model, which uses only four cycles and an exponential increase, indicates that a low in the silver price was expected approximately February – July 2013, and that the next high is expected approximately March – October 2014 in the $50 – $60 range. Further, the model suggests that a silver price of $90 – $110 is possible in the September 2015 – March 2016 time period. Do not depend solely on a model such as this; it is one of many tools.
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