Tag: silver futures

Silver – a Long-Term Perspective

Silver – a Long-Term Perspective

We all know silver is volatile. When gold rallies, silver usually rallies faster and farther, particularly after the rally has been well established. Volatility is not a reason to avoid silver. Instead, now is a time to continue stacking. Yes, silver almost certainly will correct many times, but examine the big picture. Over the past 50 years prices for stocks, silver, gold, crude oil, health care, and presidential elections have increased exponentially, mainly due to massive increases in debt (see graph below) and devaluations of currencies. Expect exponential price increases to continue. Over 50 years the Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged about 700 times larger than the price of […]

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Silver Hedgers Hold Largest Short Positions Since 2010

| October 28, 2015 | Category: Trading
Silver Hedgers Hold Largest Short Positions Since 2010

The latest Commitments of Traders report showed an eagerness to sell the metals, in particular gold and silver. Both are at levels that coincided with peaks in the metals over the past three years. In silver, hedges now have their largest short position since 2010. As noted last week, this is a huge test for metals and silver in particular. If it can continue to rally in the face of heavy pressure from hedgers, it will be an excellent sign that the bear market is likely over.

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Silver Investment Demand Is Draining The Vaults Of COMEX

| August 4, 2015 | Category: Investing
Silver Investment Demand Is Draining The Vaults Of COMEX

In Silver COMEX, one or more major players “jumped the queue” and took delivery of about 6.5 million more ounces of silver out of COMEX warehouses than anticipated at the beginning of the month. This drawdown activity was masked completely by what happened to prices. Precious metals bulls are frustrated by the complete detachment between spot prices and physical demand. They’re wondering how that is even possible.

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Ted Butler: Price Takers and Price Makers

| July 30, 2015 | Category: Price
Ted Butler: Price Takers and Price Makers

No one speculative trader would be allowed to buy or sell 10%, 20% or 40% of any commodity market in a short period of time and neither should a small group of traders, trading in lockstep, be allowed to do the same. Remember we’re talking about a very small number of managed money traders, close to 30 or 50 traders in most markets. Why should 30 or 50 purely speculative CME traders be allowed to set the price for the millions and even billions of world participants who must then take the prices dictated to them?

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Will Silver’s Quintuple Bottom Hold ?

Will Silver’s Quintuple Bottom Hold ?

Given the large open interest in COMEX silver, a “false breakout” would invalidate that view. The pivot price is $16.50. Any sustained move above or below that price will determine the next cycle. It is almost impossible to predict in which direction it will go. What we do know, however, is that it will be explosive.

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BPR April: Precious Metals Suppression In COMEX Market Continues

| April 13, 2015 | Category: Investing
BPR April: Precious Metals Suppression In COMEX Market Continues

As I said last month at this time—along with a couple of Wall Street investment houses, these are “da boyz’—the sellers of last resort—and you can call them what you like. Until they decide, or are instructed to stand back, the prices of all four precious metals are going nowhere—supply and demand fundamentals be damned! As Jim Rickards so correctly put it, the price management scheme is now so obvious, they should be embarrassed about it. But they obviously aren’t.

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COT Report Points To A Meaningful Gold And Silver Rally

| March 23, 2015 | Category: Trading
COT Report Points To A Meaningful Gold And Silver Rally

The latest Commitment of Traders Report for futures positions held at the close of trading on Tuesday March 17th 2015 is very encouraging. We can easily conclude, based on the data, that the current setup in futures positions point to a meaningful rally, at least in the short run, in both gold and silver. In other words, the selling in the ongoing cycle seems to be behind us, and a new short to mid term cycle should have started last week. To back up our thesis, we are looking at the rate of change of commercials short positions in the COT report. We have used this time and again, so far each time with success.

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Commitment of Traders Report: JP Morgan Still Short Silver Around 18,500 Contracts

| March 2, 2015 | Category: Trading
Commitment of Traders Report: JP Morgan Still Short Silver Around 18,500 Contracts

This is an excerpt from Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Daily Newsletter, with an overview of the most actual COMEX futures market positions.

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Events Impacting Gold And Silver In The Week Of February 23d

| February 22, 2015 | Category: Price
Events Impacting Gold And Silver In The Week Of February 23d

For the week commencing February 23d, there are quite some economic data coming out. No central bank announcement is planned. Our expectation is that the GDP data in the U.S. on Friday can cause some volatility in COMEX gold and silver, hence influence the gold and silver price. The German and U.K. GDP, German and U.S. inflation index CPI, etc should not result in signficant gold or silver price changes, unless those data would be very shocking.

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Ted Butler: A Remarkable Proposition

Ted Butler: A Remarkable Proposition

A remarkable new paper by a Cornell law professor and CFTC staff counsel suggests that many aspects of high frequency computer trading (HFT) may be, in fact, illegal under various provisions of basic commodity law. Heretofore, it was generally assumed that HFT was legal, but disabused and impacted markets in disruptive manner on occasion. Many, like myself, never looked on HFT favorably, but few have tried to make the legal case against it. Scopino looked at HFT not through the universal perspective of something that’s here to stay and that we must get used to; to looking at it through an interpretation that it might violate existing law. His conclusion appears to be that much of HFT is not properly aligned with existing commodity law.

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Precious Metals Monthly Bank Participation Report: February 2015

| February 8, 2015 | Category: Trading
Precious Metals Monthly Bank Participation Report: February 2015

As you can tell, with the exception of palladium, the banks of the world—especially the “3 or less” U.S. banks, have been going massively short against all comers since these latest rallies in gold, silver and platinum began at the start of 2015. Along with a couple of Wall Street investment houses, these are “da boyz’—the sellers of last resort.

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Gold And Silver Intraday Charts Evidence Of Manipulation

| February 5, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold And Silver Intraday Charts Evidence Of Manipulation

The fact that two assets with totally different fundamentals can move in the same rhythm is very odd indeed, at least if one looks at it from a real world perspective. And that is the clue of manipulation: gold and silver prices are largely disconnected from the real world, they are simply the result of speculative trading.

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Precious Metals Monthly Bank Participation Report: December 2014

Precious Metals Monthly Bank Participation Report: December 2014

Although JPMorgan, HSBC USA and Citigroup are the key U.S. bullion banks that are active in the COMEX futures market in the precious metals, it’s becoming more and more obvious that Scotiabank’s monster short positions in both gold and silver—but particularly silver—may put the bank in jeopardy at some point. That is, of course, unless they’ve got themselves covered in other markets like JPMorgan appears to have done in silver.

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Silver: Anomaly In Open Interest

| December 1, 2014 | Category: Trading
Silver: Anomaly In Open Interest

Open interest is roughly 175,000 contracts, which is about 875,000,000 ounces of paper silver. At market price that is about $13 Billion, or only about 15% of what the Fed created each month during QE3. It would take very little digital currency, relatively speaking, to buy all the open interest, or to crush prices via naked sales of paper contracts. Stacks of physical silver are much safer and far more “real.”

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