Tag: money printing
T bonds and the S&P look dangerous, while silver has been crushed during the past four years. Which of those three asset classes is likely to perform better between now and Election Day 2016? Which of those assets has no counter-party risk? Two of those assets currently trade at or near all-time highs, while one is, relatively speaking, quite inexpensive! Invest accordingly.
We know that the Federal Reserve cranked up their digital printing presses and created over $16 Trillion in new currency, swaps, loans, bailouts, gifts, etc. in response to the 2008 financial crisis. If you invested in stocks and bonds, the various QE – “money printing” programs were probably successful for you. Examine the following chart and note the impact of QE on the S&P 500 Index.
A few words come to mind: anger, anguish, bankruptcy, betrayal, depression, recession, repression, riots, stagflation, and trauma. In a saner world, we will depend far less on fiat currencies that are devalued easily and inevitably. Instead we will trust gold and silver more and paper much less. My advice: Create your own financial sanity!
Note the massive correction in prices, and the deeply oversold condition of the Relative Strength Indicator and the TDI. Prices have been ready to turn up for several months. Prices may not rally this week but they will soon. Stacking silver is good insurance. What could go wrong with our political and financial systems that might assist silver prices? Economic wars and hot military wars increase debt and commodity prices. Gold and silver will see another rally, probably one that surprises almost everyone.
There is a widespread misconception that only rate cuts or more QE would be bullish for gold and silver. To the contrary, if rising inflation pressures force the Fed to raise rates, that would potentially be quite bullish for gold and silver as well. Instead of fearing rate hikes, metals investors should actually look forward to the next rate-raising cycle. That’s when the biggest gains in gold and silver could come. At some point, yes, real interest rates may turn positive and precious metals prices may get overextended to the upside. But neither situation exists under current market conditions.
It is clear that “money printing” as such does not correlate in a one-to-one way with precious metals, although it is, so far, higly correlating with stocks. During all the QE phases, stocks have been performing well, while gold has only benefited from QE1 and QE2 as those periods where associated by the market with inflation. On the other hand, QE3 provided THE ultimate “risk on” trade; because the invisible hand of the almighty central bank was there stimulate endless risk. That is when gold was literally ababonded, at least among Western investors. The interesting part is that gold is today behaving as a “risk off” trade, sort of a “safe haven” trade.
A stagnant job market and poorly disguised inflation is the “new normal” for Americans. Forget about sending the kids to college – it’s going to be a struggle for many families just to make ends meet. Those who don’t own gold and silver will see their dollar savings and quality of life diminish at a faster and faster rate.
In my opinion the US gold is largely gone and probably the gold supposedly stored at the NY Fed for other countries is also mostly gone. Sadly, it matters to very few people, and the world will continue to print many more paper and digital dollars, euros, pounds, and yen. Long live the value of paper, or so we should hope, since the inevitable reckoning and proper valuation of all paper assets, when it occurs, will be ugly, distressing, and dangerous.
Gold did NOT blow-off into a bubble high in 2011, all the drivers for higher gold prices are still valid, international demand is strong, supply will be reduced when the western central banks run out of gold or terminate “leasing” into the market, and US, EU and Japanese government expenses, “money printing” and bond monetization are out of control and accelerating.
On the myth that it is not important how much is printed, Jim Rickards says that the Fed’s safety net of printing has holes in it. If the money printing could go on indefinitely then you would be right and I would agree with you but it cannot go on indefinitely. The Fed could legally print more than the $4 trillion they’ve already created — $8 trillion, $12 trillion, $16 trillion. Some people say that they can do that — legally they can but they will destroy confidence at some point.
We need to see more in the way of all round strength in this sector before we can implement an aggressive acquisitions strategy and so we have the lion’s share of our portfolio in cash. However, allocating a small amount of your investment funds to the acquisition of a few good quality gold and silver stocks in order to have a one foot in the precious metals camp might not be a bad idea, but go very gently as these are dangerous times for gold bugs.