For the week commencing February 23d, there are quite some economic data coming out. No central bank announcement is planned. Our expectation is that the GDP data in the U.S. on Friday can cause some volatility in COMEX gold and silver, hence influence the gold and silver price. The German and U.K. GDP, German and U.S. inflation index CPI, etc should not result in signficant gold or silver price changes, unless those data would be very shocking.
Tag: money printing
There is a widespread misconception that only rate cuts or more QE would be bullish for gold and silver. To the contrary, if rising inflation pressures force the Fed to raise rates, that would potentially be quite bullish for gold and silver as well. Instead of fearing rate hikes, metals investors should actually look forward to the next rate-raising cycle. That’s when the biggest gains in gold and silver could come. At some point, yes, real interest rates may turn positive and precious metals prices may get overextended to the upside. But neither situation exists under current market conditions.
It is clear that “money printing” as such does not correlate in a one-to-one way with precious metals, although it is, so far, higly correlating with stocks. During all the QE phases, stocks have been performing well, while gold has only benefited from QE1 and QE2 as those periods where associated by the market with inflation. On the other hand, QE3 provided THE ultimate “risk on” trade; because the invisible hand of the almighty central bank was there stimulate endless risk. That is when gold was literally ababonded, at least among Western investors. The interesting part is that gold is today behaving as a “risk off” trade, sort of a “safe haven” trade.
A stagnant job market and poorly disguised inflation is the “new normal” for Americans. Forget about sending the kids to college – it’s going to be a struggle for many families just to make ends meet. Those who don’t own gold and silver will see their dollar savings and quality of life diminish at a faster and faster rate.
In my opinion the US gold is largely gone and probably the gold supposedly stored at the NY Fed for other countries is also mostly gone. Sadly, it matters to very few people, and the world will continue to print many more paper and digital dollars, euros, pounds, and yen. Long live the value of paper, or so we should hope, since the inevitable reckoning and proper valuation of all paper assets, when it occurs, will be ugly, distressing, and dangerous.
Gold did NOT blow-off into a bubble high in 2011, all the drivers for higher gold prices are still valid, international demand is strong, supply will be reduced when the western central banks run out of gold or terminate “leasing” into the market, and US, EU and Japanese government expenses, “money printing” and bond monetization are out of control and accelerating.
On the myth that it is not important how much is printed, Jim Rickards says that the Fed’s safety net of printing has holes in it. If the money printing could go on indefinitely then you would be right and I would agree with you but it cannot go on indefinitely. The Fed could legally print more than the $4 trillion they’ve already created — $8 trillion, $12 trillion, $16 trillion. Some people say that they can do that — legally they can but they will destroy confidence at some point.
We need to see more in the way of all round strength in this sector before we can implement an aggressive acquisitions strategy and so we have the lion’s share of our portfolio in cash. However, allocating a small amount of your investment funds to the acquisition of a few good quality gold and silver stocks in order to have a one foot in the precious metals camp might not be a bad idea, but go very gently as these are dangerous times for gold bugs.
In the latest Investor’s Digest of Canada, Johny Embry, strategist at Sprott Asset Management, praises one of the latest precious metals book. Obviously, the book he refers to is “The Gold Cartel; Government Intervention in Gold, the Mega-Bubble in Paper and What this Means for your Future” written by Dimitri Speck.
Until last year destroyed gold’s multi-year bull reign, the expansion of the U.S. balance sheet and the price of gold over the past decade moved in near lockstep. From 1999 through 2012, the correlation coefficient of the rising price of gold to the Fed’s climbing assets was 0.95. Even with the tapering of the bond purchases that began in late 2013, the Fed’s balance sheet remains on an upward trajectory and much higher than the price of gold. This suggests we should see much higher prices.
Fire and Ice have little impact upon gold and silver. Gold and silver were money long before the unholy union of fractional reserve banking and government unleashed Fire and Ice upon our world through inflating paper currencies and deflating debt. It is time to protect our financial future with gold and silver – Fire and Ice resistant assets.
Ponzi-financing is the final stage in the bankers’ 300-year old ponzi scheme. An extreme deflationary collapse is about to take away all what credit created and the take-away will not be easy for those attached to the world that is passing away. The global economic collapse along with increasingly severe earth changes, e.g. record heat, record cold, earthquakes, drought, floods, etc., are the trigger events for a paradigm shift of cosmic proportions. The rebalancing of universal polarities is underway. A better world is coming.