We have refrained from putting a time frame on when silver and gold will finally
break free from the manipulative forces, but 2015 could be a defining year. It
remains to be seen, but events are unfolding at such an increased level and so
unpredictably that this could be the year. We did not say this in 2013 nor in 2014,
and it may take going into 2016, but be prepared, or you will not be spared.
Tag: monetary policy
The results of the Greek elections and the ECB’s monetary bazooka are all symptoms of the same underlying problem. Debt is not only destroying the value of a currency, but is also destroying values of a population. Governments have not been “managing” the effects when they acquired the loans, but one way or another they feel the need to “manage” the destructive effects when it becomes payback time. And what is the answer? Simple, creating even more debts and devaluing currencies even further. When one country does this in some sort of hypothecial vaccuum, it could theoretically work. But it does not work at all when all regions worldwide are implementing the same policies, simultaneously. The middle and lower class of society are the ultimate victims.
Jakobsen argues that in the current economic environment that what a metals trader needs to focus on is deflation. When deflation bottoms out, which is something likely to happen during Q1 of 2015, it will be the biggest buy signal for metals. Jakobsen’s base scenario is that Q1 and Q2 will become the worst part of the business cycle with the lowest inflation expectation, the lowest growth, the lowest ability to do anything and increasing volatility at the same time. But he believes that as this low energy, as these low interest rates and as the terms of trade for Europe improve, we will see a better second half than we’ll see a first half.
If one thing became clear, it is that the establishment and government have been very scared. The “anti-gold” camp has been firmly reproaching the “pro-gold” camp that they do not understand the economy because it is too complex. In two days, the world will learn whether the “anti-gold” propaganda has worked or whether the Swiss citizens had been able to figure out there were sufficient benefits for their own future to vote “yes.”
While it is impossible to function without a bank account, it is imperative for individuals to do whatever it takes to preserve their wealth. If there is a financial collapse coming, your bank and your government are not going to do a darn thing to save you. And, instead they will destroy your wealth and leave you destitute. This is why it is important to hold both physical gold and silver.
As long the US government resort to high levels of debt, the Fed isn’t likely to decrease the supply of money. Greenspan might have an inkling of something he’s not telling. Here’s what the former Fed Chairman had to say about the direction of gold and interest rates: “Gold – measurably higher. Interest rates – measurably higher.”
This microdocumentary video examines in detail 4 major booms in the last 100 years and explains how monetary policy and interest rate manipulation has led to the inevitable bust.
A stagnant job market and poorly disguised inflation is the “new normal” for Americans. Forget about sending the kids to college – it’s going to be a struggle for many families just to make ends meet. Those who don’t own gold and silver will see their dollar savings and quality of life diminish at a faster and faster rate.
Gold prices are still low compared to debt as shown by the gold to population adjusted national debt ratio from the past 44 years. National debt is increasing rapidly, population is increasing slowly, and the gold to population adjusted national debt ratio seems likely to increase substantially from here. Hence gold prices will rally much higher, thanks to massive increases in debt, more currency in circulation, “money printing,” investor demand, higher energy prices, various worries and wars, and Asian demand.
In his weekly market review, Frank Holmes of the USFunds.com nicely summarizes for gold investors this week’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the gold market. Gold closed the week at $1,280.08, down $24.75 per ounce (-1.90%). Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, fell 3.08%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index rose 1.08% for the week.
The end is nearer and nearer, just not in sight, but for those who can exercise even a minimal amount of foresight, taking self-direction has never been more important. The charts give no indication of panic by those in control of the PM market through the use of derivatives. The fact that China is endeavoring to become the next gold trade center, in control of a legitimate pricing mechanism has done nothing to alter the chart read. Gold has almost disappeared from the headlines this past week, and the fact that it cannot make a move out of its protracted trading ranges explains why. There is nothing apparent over which one can be enthused for the prospects of higher prices, but one must always be prepared for events when they do happen.
Contrary to popular belief, rising rates are no threat to gold. This metal soared in the 1970s during the last secular rising-rate environment as stocks and bonds got hit. Gold powered higher again in the 2000s with both short and long rates far higher than today’s levels. And gold surged during the only major modern rate-hike cycle seen a decade ago, when the Fed more than quintupled short rates.
Investors should consider gold and gold exposure as an alternative asset class and as part of an overall portfolio. I would recommend that investors average their investment over time instead of buying all at once. The gold price is volatile and it’s very difficult to get the low points. Averaging over time when the price dips can help financially and mentally even out the ups and downs. Consider gold as a very long-term investment, not just a two- or three-year investment.
Eventually we’ll have a collapse or deflationary bust in asset markets. That’s inevitable. Printing money can postpone such a collapse but eventually the bust will occur. Every inflation, whether consumer price inflation or asset inflation, eventually comes to an end. I hold physical gold for the reason that one day I may not be able to remit money from one country to another. I don’t know when this final systemic collapse that I am foreseeing will occur but all I can say is that in monetary, inflationary times, when inflation is measured properly, in real terms: stocks usually don’t do particularly well but gold does.