For the week commencing March 30th, quite some economic data are scheduled to be announced, as seen in the table below. There is no central bank announcement on the agenda. Tuesday is a busy day, with the European CPI and U.S. consumer confidence data being released, among many other data. We believe the nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate in the U.S. on Friday have the potential to create some volatility in markets and metals, but at the same time, as it will be Good Friday, we expect a neutral reaction. The “joker” in the coming week(s) is the evolution of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Obviously, there is a potential for increased demand of a “safe haven” asset if things would go wrong in the Middle East.
Tag: monetary policy
Note the massive correction in prices, and the deeply oversold condition of the Relative Strength Indicator and the TDI. Prices have been ready to turn up for several months. Prices may not rally this week but they will soon. Stacking silver is good insurance. What could go wrong with our political and financial systems that might assist silver prices? Economic wars and hot military wars increase debt and commodity prices. Gold and silver will see another rally, probably one that surprises almost everyone.
Debt will increase substantially from here, until a massive reset occurs. Gold and silver, in spite of financial cartel resistance, will assert their real value and be priced much higher, depending on the quantity of debt created, loss of confidence in government and central bankers, and the amount of chaos that occurs during the coming storm. Exponentially increasing systems do not last forever. Gold and silver do.
What I find extremely annoying is the fact that while these banks commit just about every financial crime imaginable, the regulatory bodies refuse to prosecute any banker and continue to harass hard working individuals instead. And, many of these individuals have merely taken precautionary measures to protect their wealth against corrupt governments as well as bad monetary policies.
Jim Rickards discusses the observation that the financial mainstream media is increasingly questioning the credibility of central bank monetary policies. “I don’t actually think that the fundamental state of the world has changed. What has changed, it has become more visible. Analysts, investors and mainstream media are starting to wake up to things like currency wars, the save haven nature of gold, etc. I think the reason for that is that until you reach the zero rate bound, you can pretend it it’s a normal rate cutting exercise. Once you hit zero that pretense is gone and the currency war becomes more explicit.”
The results of the Greek elections and the ECB’s monetary bazooka are all symptoms of the same underlying problem. Debt is not only destroying the value of a currency, but is also destroying values of a population. Governments have not been “managing” the effects when they acquired the loans, but one way or another they feel the need to “manage” the destructive effects when it becomes payback time. And what is the answer? Simple, creating even more debts and devaluing currencies even further. When one country does this in some sort of hypothecial vaccuum, it could theoretically work. But it does not work at all when all regions worldwide are implementing the same policies, simultaneously. The middle and lower class of society are the ultimate victims.
Jakobsen argues that in the current economic environment that what a metals trader needs to focus on is deflation. When deflation bottoms out, which is something likely to happen during Q1 of 2015, it will be the biggest buy signal for metals. Jakobsen’s base scenario is that Q1 and Q2 will become the worst part of the business cycle with the lowest inflation expectation, the lowest growth, the lowest ability to do anything and increasing volatility at the same time. But he believes that as this low energy, as these low interest rates and as the terms of trade for Europe improve, we will see a better second half than we’ll see a first half.
If one thing became clear, it is that the establishment and government have been very scared. The “anti-gold” camp has been firmly reproaching the “pro-gold” camp that they do not understand the economy because it is too complex. In two days, the world will learn whether the “anti-gold” propaganda has worked or whether the Swiss citizens had been able to figure out there were sufficient benefits for their own future to vote “yes.”
While it is impossible to function without a bank account, it is imperative for individuals to do whatever it takes to preserve their wealth. If there is a financial collapse coming, your bank and your government are not going to do a darn thing to save you. And, instead they will destroy your wealth and leave you destitute. This is why it is important to hold both physical gold and silver.
As long the US government resort to high levels of debt, the Fed isn’t likely to decrease the supply of money. Greenspan might have an inkling of something he’s not telling. Here’s what the former Fed Chairman had to say about the direction of gold and interest rates: “Gold – measurably higher. Interest rates – measurably higher.”
This microdocumentary video examines in detail 4 major booms in the last 100 years and explains how monetary policy and interest rate manipulation has led to the inevitable bust.
A stagnant job market and poorly disguised inflation is the “new normal” for Americans. Forget about sending the kids to college – it’s going to be a struggle for many families just to make ends meet. Those who don’t own gold and silver will see their dollar savings and quality of life diminish at a faster and faster rate.
Gold prices are still low compared to debt as shown by the gold to population adjusted national debt ratio from the past 44 years. National debt is increasing rapidly, population is increasing slowly, and the gold to population adjusted national debt ratio seems likely to increase substantially from here. Hence gold prices will rally much higher, thanks to massive increases in debt, more currency in circulation, “money printing,” investor demand, higher energy prices, various worries and wars, and Asian demand.
In his weekly market review, Frank Holmes of the USFunds.com nicely summarizes for gold investors this week’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the gold market. Gold closed the week at $1,280.08, down $24.75 per ounce (-1.90%). Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, fell 3.08%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index rose 1.08% for the week.