Tag: market analysis

Rising Gold And US Dollar. Will The Impossible Continue?

Rising Gold And US Dollar. Will The Impossible Continue?

In the last two weeks, we are seeing the impossible–a rise in the gold price and the US dollar. This isn’t as impossible as it seems–we’ve seen this before, from late 2009 to about mid-2010. It was a good time to be invested in gold equities. Notice that during the impossible trend in the past, gold and USDX never rose together for more than two consecutive weeks. The move was seemed to be a series of cycles and countercycles, over which both parameters increased. As I’ve argued previously, rising gold and US dollar is the most economically favourable environment for gold equities–particularly those with production. If the number of dollars you receive per unit of gold increases, and at the same time the value of those dollars increases, your revenue increase will reflect both inputs.

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Is The Swiss Gold Referendum Impacting The Price Of Gold

| November 4, 2014 | Category: Price
Is The Swiss Gold Referendum Impacting The Price Of Gold

Is the Swiss referendum having any influence on the price of gold? From our selection of charts, the dynamics seem to be elsewhere. Gold is still sought as a protection and with the US economy on the road to normalization and the S&P flirting with new highs, the cost of holding it is increasing everyday. Now, Bear markets don’t last forever and this one does recall the one on Gold between end 1974 and late 1976. Our Weekly charts on Gold, although still in a descent, are getting closer to their targets in price and time. As for the referendum, the recent drop in the price of Gold may help the SNB convince voters that holding 20% of its reserves in non-saleable Gold isn’t that good an idea after all.

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Gold And Silver Monthly Charts: Elite Supernova Death Dance In Precious Metals?

| November 1, 2014 | Category: Investing
Gold And Silver Monthly Charts: Elite Supernova Death Dance In Precious Metals?

Last Thursday and Friday are signs of panic selling, based on the sharp increase in volume at the lows. That the sharp increase occurred at the lows tells us strong hands are in the market taking whatever sellers have to offer. It is too soon to assess if last week is a sign of bottoming activity, but the level of volume is an important tell. As an aside, the gold/silver ratio is just over 72:1, and this favors buying silver over gold on the premise that the ratio will come in at some point in the future. It says that at some point, silver will out perform gold.

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Gold And Silver Price Crash Of 2014 Coming?

| October 31, 2014 | Category: Price
Gold And Silver Price Crash Of 2014 Coming?

Are we about to experience another crash of the price of gold and silver, as well as miners, comparable to what we have seen in April and June of 2013? We do not exclude it, given the strong trends explained above: rising U.S. Dollar on the back of a sharply declining Yen and rising equities. On the other hand, were equities about to reverse their course because the end of QE would bring uncertainty and volatility, it could well be that the metals (mainly gold) could benefit from new money inflows.

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Respect The Gold And Silver Price Trend But Prepare For A Reversal

| October 25, 2014 | Category: Price
Respect The Gold And Silver Price Trend But Prepare For A Reversal

Given the position for gold, near its lows, the likelihood of support holding above a 50% retracement, the 1219-1220 area, is not in keeping with the character of a down trending market. For sure, buying rallies, expecting yet a higher rally has not worked in gold, to which we can attest from a few trades some time back. Time is on the side of longs who are best served being on the sidelines, for now.

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What Is The Link Between Gold And QE?

What Is The Link Between Gold And QE?

It is clear that “money printing” as such does not correlate in a one-to-one way with precious metals, although it is, so far, higly correlating with stocks. During all the QE phases, stocks have been performing well, while gold has only benefited from QE1 and QE2 as those periods where associated by the market with inflation. On the other hand, QE3 provided THE ultimate “risk on” trade; because the invisible hand of the almighty central bank was there stimulate endless risk. That is when gold was literally ababonded, at least among Western investors. The interesting part is that gold is today behaving as a “risk off” trade, sort of a “safe haven” trade.

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Gold & Silver Show Mixed Signals While Bitcoin Shows Relative Strength

Gold & Silver Show Mixed Signals While Bitcoin Shows Relative Strength

Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has started to reverse, moving to +0.76 from a high last week of +0.88. This makes forecasting future bitcoin price movements more difficult if it is beginning to act less like gold, who’s behavior has become well-understood in relation to the US economic narrative of growth and Federal Reserve tightening. Right now, the bitcoin market remains very stochastic and open to market manipulation. There are no clear demand-side factors that we can rely on for sustained demand of the currency.

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What The Strong Dollar Does With The Price Of Gold

| October 20, 2014 | Category: Price
What The Strong Dollar Does With The Price Of Gold

As heretical as it sounds, there’s a downside to America’s success, and that’s a stronger dollar. For the 12-month period, our currency has seen a 1.1-standard deviation move, which has put pressure on two commodities that we consider our lifeblood at U.S. Global Investors: gold and oil.

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What Has The Gold Price Done Since 9-11

| October 16, 2014 | Category: Price
What Has The Gold Price Done Since 9-11

Note the graph of the ratio of gold to the S&P 500 Index. Both are rising together and gold is now inexpensive (again) compared to the S&P 500 Index, like it was on 9-11. Since 9-11 crude oil prices have gone much higher and crashed lower but on average they have increased with gold prices.

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Gold vs S&P 500: Insights From The 25-Year Chart

| October 7, 2014 | Category: Economy
Gold vs S&P 500: Insights From The 25-Year Chart

The gold vs S&P500 ratio at the gold peak in 1980 was about 8. The ratio was trending downward from 1980 to about 2001. Subsequent to the stock market crash of 2000, 9-11, and the massive increase in spending and debt, the ratio now trends upward.

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Why There Is Still Hope For Gold Bulls

| October 2, 2014 | Category: Price
Why There Is Still Hope For Gold Bulls

Gold is approaching a critical price point, i.e. $1,180. That is the lowest price of the last years. It has been tested twice, so this third retest is a crucial one for the short and medium term. Although the sentiment is extremely negative, there are some indications which could provide some help for the yellow metal.

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Gold Investors Weekly Review – September 26th

| September 27, 2014 | Category: Investing
Gold Investors Weekly Review – September 26th

In his weekly market review, Frank Holmes of the USFunds.com nicely summarizes for gold investors this week’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the gold market. Gold closed the week at $1,218.07 up $2.37 per ounce (0.19%). Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, fell 2.74%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index rose 1.04% for the week.

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Research Shows Positive Correlation Between Economic growth And Gold Demand

| September 25, 2014 | Category: Investing
Research Shows Positive Correlation Between Economic growth And Gold Demand

Current data on the world’s economies is mixed. There is both positive and negative news about developed and emerging markets but many investors – particularly in the US – are optimistic about a return to growth. Conventional wisdom says this will be bad news for gold. We believe the true picture is more complex. Gold benefits from both the growth and contraction phases of the business cycle, and our analysis, based on new third-party research, highlights the positive link between economic growth and consumer demand for gold.

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Insights From The 10 Year Gold, Silver And Dollar Chart

| September 25, 2014 | Category: Technicals
Insights From The 10 Year Gold, Silver And Dollar Chart

Buy fish line patterns, sell rhino horn patterns, and trust that politicians and bankers will continue to borrow and spend money that must be “printed” in ever-increasing quantities. Example: Official national debt increased by $1,013,588,000,000 in the one year from Sept. 23, 2013 to Sept. 22, 2014.
US Dollar: My expectation is that many more dollars must be created and consequently they will lose value against food, energy, and the commodities we need for daily living. Gold: My expectation is that gold can’t be printed into existence and that it will retain or increase its purchasing power over time. Silver: My expectation is that silver will become both more scarce and yet more essential to our economy, and that it will rally substantially from here.

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