Silver prices have increased but in a disorderly manner. Over 40 years of silver prices can be represented by four zones of megaphone shaped price patterns. My round number target is $100 or more in 2016 – 2019. Although I hope that the powers-that-be will not choose to create hyperinflation in the US, if hyperinflation does occur, the $100 target will be easily bypassed and much higher prices will be “in play.”
Tag: jim rickards
The second Advisory Board meeting of Incrementum Liechtenstein has taken place, in which all relevant and important topics for gold investors have been discussed.The economic situation and China in particular, a monetary policy update, the geopolitical situation, a stock market review, and precious metals and miners market update.
In this interview, Jim Rickards, author of the book “The Death Of Money”, explains several key concepts of his book. His book is written in a very accessible way and offers pragmatic insights and tips related to the coming collapse of the monetary system. One way of those insights is a model portfolio which Rickards describes in great detail in his book. In one of the following paragraphs, he shares a preview.
The Incrementum Inflation Signal started showing rising inflationary momentum after a period of 19 month of disinflation. Is Inflation making a comeback just as the consensus worries about deflation risk? That was the subject of Incrementum’s first Advisory Board in which much respected names have a seat.
What matters is the instability of the system. What you need to study is the instability of the system. If you get that right, you will be able to see the collapse coming. The trigger is really irrelevant. A trigger could be the failure of a firm, the failure of an exchange, some kind of panic, a natural disaster, suicide of a prominent person. It really doesn’t matter what it is; what matters is your system is instable and it is going to collapse.
In this short but fascinating interview on Bloomberg TV, Jim Rickards summarizes today’s controversial gold market situation in just a couple of minutes. He says the gold market is technically very bullish, but basically one needs to understand all aspects of the market (not only the declining price). In particular, the key of gold’s bullish situation is related to the physical market which is right now being redefined by China.
This article presents a first insight in the sequel to Currency Wars, the best selling book written by Jim Rickards. The new book is titled “The Death of Money, The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System.” The book confirms the predictions made in “Currency Wars” and goes deeper in the matter by explaing how the international monetary system might collapse and how the new monetary system could look like.
This is an excellent interview with Jim Rickards. He explains that we are in a depression currently. The answers to that problem from the US government and central bank will likely force them to impose monetary discipline through the return to a gold standard. The longer the dollar based monetary system is suppressed, the more likely that market forces will induce a dollar collapse. This piece provides deep insights in a complex matter, brought in an easy to understand way.
In a major US dollar devaluation crisis, which would occur if the US would fail to raise the debt ceiling on Thursday October 17th, there should be a significant impact on the gold price. Jim Rickards wrote about this in his bookin which he envisages a series of ‘black swan’ events that trigger a loss of confidence in the US dollar precipitating a rush to get out of the greenback. In such a scenario, the market would question the Fed’s staying power. A dollar collapse would ensue and gold could double in price overnight.
As all central banks are printing money, their value all go down simultaneously. In such an environment, gold is a good solution. This is the rationale to hold some money in the form of [physical] gold. Cash is not necessary the best investment.
Is it too late to change direction and avoid a collapse? Mr. Rickards believes it is not; we can still avoid it. The key point, however, is that policy makers are not showing signs of understanding the seriousness of the situation and their policy outcomes. They neither show signs of reversing course and solving the underlying structural issues.
With the whole world tied to the printing press, inflation is just a matter of time, says Jim Rickards. A greater danger is a widespread collapse in confidence in paper money. That will be the single catalyst driving gold to unprecedented levels. The gold price that is needed to reflect the extended monetary base is approximately $7,000.
We have two things going on at once right now. You have deflation which is perfectly natural and what you would expect in a depression. Against that, we have inflation from the Fed money printing. In rough numbers we might have 4% deflation and 5% inflation at the same time which net out to about 1% inflation in the CPI. That is not a stable series; that is actually two forces pushing against each other.
On the question where gold will trade for the rest of this year, Rickards is convinced that gold will go sideways this year and that it will go up next year. He also believes inflation is coming with a lag. On the question what deflation means for gold, Rickards answers that gold traditionally performs well amid deflation, as well as inflation.