Based on cyclical analysis, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and portfolio analysis, Petrov says the bottom for gold could be in already, but most likely will be behind us within one to seven months. That’s early to mid-2014, now rapidly approaching.
In this interview with Dimitri Speck, the gold price suppression scheme of the last 2 decades is discussed. In terms of gold’s outlook, the most likely scenario is one comparable to the current Japan: suppress deflation, stimulate slight inflation while avoiding strong inflation. In this scenario, the velocity of money will increase, savers will step out of the banking system, inflation will occur in asset and consumer prices. Gold is the best hedge in such a scenario.
Ryan Jordan, Ph.D. is the author of “Silver – The Peoples Metal” which I highly recommend. He sees silver fundamentals from the perspective of a historian and as an astute observer of present conditions. He studies the drivers of the silver market, supply, demand, mining, inflation, investment sentiment, central bank bond monetization policies, and politics.
Mr. Bernanke will get to visit his ideal world of 2% price inflation, but it will only be a whistle stop. The price inflation that lies ahead will be at least as bad as what happened in the 1970s episode, when the annual inflation rate approached 15%. The money that’s already been printed so far may be enough to produce such a 1970s-size problem.
Gold was stopped cold in its tracks at the psychological round number resistance level of $1300. It had initially reacted to Ben Bernanke’s comments, by moving smartly higher. During the Q&A session which followed, gold was slammed lower by a wave of very strong selling. Think about it this way – the QE will continue as long as the economy needs it. Okay – what is new about that? We have seen this QE going on for some time now and to the minds of most market participants, there is still no real inflation threat looming on the horizon. What is there to make them waver the least in their convictions that inflation is benign? Answer – there isn’t anything… YET.
While the largest gold ETF in the Western hemisphere is unloading physical gold the land of the rising sun is doing the opposite. The biggest ETF in Japan has accumulated 10% of its physical holding this year. Bloomberg writes that “Japanese consumers are poised to become net buyers of gold for the first time in eight years as the yen’s decline and looming inflation drive them to seek refuge in bullion.
Gold and silver will not only continue to serve in their timeless role as a store of wealth while fiat currencies flail and ultimately fail—right now, market conditions are ripe for a once-in-a-lifetime profit opportunity to take shape. The current gloom in the mining-stock sector has stock prices at astounding lows… but those who know which companies are best positioned to ride out this temporary collapse and have the fortitude to invest in them now can make a fortune. This isn’t exaggeration—this scenario has played out before in the US.
Full market capitulation is underway. Headlines about gold are almost universally negative today, and all about selling. This feeds on itself, and the process may not be over. In this kind of environment, prices will overshoot to the downside. In other words, the bottom may not be in. What if we get more short-term pain?
We have two things going on at once right now. You have deflation which is perfectly natural and what you would expect in a depression. Against that, we have inflation from the Fed money printing. In rough numbers we might have 4% deflation and 5% inflation at the same time which net out to about 1% inflation in the CPI. That is not a stable series; that is actually two forces pushing against each other.
On the question where gold will trade for the rest of this year, Rickards is convinced that gold will go sideways this year and that it will go up next year. He also believes inflation is coming with a lag. On the question what deflation means for gold, Rickards answers that gold traditionally performs well amid deflation, as well as inflation.
Inflation – a few percent seems unimportant, but over a decade, it becomes very important. Look at the calculation in this article. According to several surveys, real people think their personal inflation rate is around 8% per year with a significant percent of the responders claiming 9 – 11% or more per year. Are you going to believe what the government is telling you?
Peter Schiff comments on the latest disappointing US GDP figures and the real inflation rate. Since 2002 the price of a Big Mac is up with 6% while the CPI has increased less than 2%. Besides he discusses the increase of 3.2% in consumer spending, the decrease of earnings and the savings rate (which stands at its lowest points since Q4 2007).
In what we consider a magnificent speech, Kyle Bass explains why he believes the Japanese government debt bubble is explosive in nature. He expects this bubble to burst soon, although he reiterates that it is impossible to know when exactly this will happen.
Major news hit the wires on Saturday March 16th. Cyprus, although a very small island in Southern Europe, is the next country to announce a bailout of their banks. European officials and the government in Cyprus worked out a deal in which depositors become part of the bailout: every depositor of a bank in Cyprus will be charged a “one-time fee” of either 6.75% (for deposit less than 100,000 euros) or 9.9% (for deposits exceeding 100,000 euros). Source: Reuters. More facts related to this crucial event: The rescue package by the EU and IMF is worth 10 billion euros ($13 billion). The government stated that this bailout deal was a […]
At a certain point in 2011, the Chinese let their currency go up. Amazingly, right after they did it, their inflation, trade surplus and economy “cooled off”. So the exchange rate was pegged at a new level. That’s when the Fed announced QE3, and the same process started all over.