Tag: hui index

Broad Market Nearing Resistance while Gold Stocks Basing After Bottom

Broad Market Nearing Resistance while Gold Stocks Basing After Bottom

While the gold stocks have enjoyed a decent recovery, they have certainly lagged the broad market which has almost broken out to new highs. Should you be worried that a major shift is in place? Hardly. The fact is the broad market is in the latter stages of its a cyclical bull while gold stocks just completed a major bottom. Don’t call us doom and gloomers because we do not foresee a real bear market. The last phase of a secular bear market tends to be mild in nature but coincides with a strong move in resources, higher inflation and higher interest rates. In looking at the charts, we expect […]

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Gold Shares continue to lose ground against gold itself

Gold Shares continue to lose ground against gold itself

The gold mining shares, as evidenced by the HUI, continue to lose ground against the price of gold bullion itself. They are approaching the three year low in this ratio that was made 3 weeks ago. One would think that they would find some buying support soon for valuation reasons. The hedge funds continue to ply that ratio spread trade which they will do until they can no longer make any profits off of it. Maybe we are seeing a bit of a delayed reaction to news that the Obama budget contains a hefty 5% royalty tax on their revenues. That budget has zero chance of passing in its current form […]

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The S&P 500 has upleg room to run

The S&P 500 has upleg room to run

The US stock markets have been on fire lately, still marching higher even after the S&P 500 powered to its best January in 15 years.  Doubted from its very birth, this latest stock-market upleg continues to inexorably climb the proverbial Wall of Worry.  But while bears keep on arguing for its imminent demise, today’s upleg actually still has plenty of room to run higher.  Despite the naysayers, it isn’t too late to buy in yet. To understand where the winds of probability are likely blowing the stock markets next, we first have to gain crucial perspective on where they have been. And good charts are worth far more than a […]

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How Bull Markets Evolve into Bubbles – How about the Gold Bull Market

How Bull Markets Evolve into Bubbles – How about the Gold Bull Market

There is a science to market movements and various trends because human nature is consistent over time. Bear markets follow a pattern as do bull markets. In recent weeks we’ve noted the similarities between the past four equity bull markets. They start off strong for six or seven years before slowing down over the next five years. Then they break to new highs and eventually accelerate into a bubble. As we show in this update, change in valuation explains how bull markets evolve into bubbles. The following chart shows the Nikkei (black) and its price to earnings ratio (blue). The chart comes from DailyWealth but the annotations are mine. In our opinion, […]

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Gold Juniors Poised to Rebound

Economics and politics. Accretion and repletion. Mergers and acquisitions. Joe Mazumdar, senior mining analyst with Haywood Securities, sees all of these as catalysts for a rebound in the junior gold space in 2012. In this exclusive Gold Report interview, he reveals the names of companies he expects to take off. COMPANIES MENTIONED: BARRICK GOLD CORP. – CARPATHIAN GOLD INC. – GABRIEL RESOURCES LTD. – MIDAS GOLD CORP. – MIDWAY GOLD CORP. – NEWMONT MINING CORP. – ORVANA MINERALS CORP. – PRODIGY GOLD INC. – REVOLUTION RESOURCES CORP. – ROMARCO MINERALS INC. The Gold Report: What is the consensus among Haywood analysts on what 2012 will bring for mine commodities, particularly precious metals? Joe Mazumdar: Last year, risk aversion was a […]

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Local Top in Mining Stocks Might Be Just Around the Corner

Local Top in Mining Stocks Might Be Just Around the Corner

This December gold prices swooned by more than 10 per cent in their biggest monthly fall since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. For some insecure gold investors it was like a bad dream. They were happy to wake up to a bright, crisp January whose performance was more than enough to warm the heart of any gold investor. It was the metal’s strongest starting month in 32 years giving a resounding answer to those who wondered if the 11-year rally in gold had ended (and they always seem to come out of the woodwork every time gold experiences a correction.) Gold rose 11 percent in January, taking off like an […]

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Junior Gold Producers 2

Junior Gold Producers 2

It only took eleven years, but in 2011 global gold-mine production has finally returned to pre-bull levels.  In fact, with 2011’s volume expected to come in at around 88m ounces, we’ll see a new all-time production high.  The latest exploration-and-development cycle is finally starting to bear fruit! This fruit has been hard-earned though, as the miners have had to reverse the course of a brutal production decline that bottomed out in 2008.  Incredibly global gold production had fallen nearly 13% in five years from 2003’s high, to a level not seen since the mid-1990s.  And needless to say that painted quite an alarming fundamental picture considering demand was on the […]

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Mining Stocks Yet to Go Up Decisively

Mining Stocks Yet to Go Up Decisively

According to Goldman Sachs, gold provided the best returns of all commodities in the past five years when adjusted for volatility and says the rally will continue as options traders signal no change in the metal’s relatively low risk. The Bloomberg Riskless Return Ranking shows the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Gold Total Return Index produced a 6.5 percent risk- adjusted return in the five years that ended last week, the highest among 24 commodities tracked by S&P, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Silver, the next-best performer, yielded a risk-adjusted gain of 3.1 percent, while a total-return index for all raw materials slipped 0.2 percent. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold will reach […]

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‘January Barometer’ gives green light to stocks

‘January Barometer’ gives green light to stocks

Though precious metal struggled yesterday to overcome important resistance levels on the price charts, overall January was a good month for gold, silver and the companies that dig these metals out of the ground. The HUI Index of leading gold and silver mining companies gained 3.6% over the course of the month – an encouraging, albeit modest, change of fortune when compared with the poor year that these stocks had over the course of 2011. However, the share prices of gold and silver producers continue to lag behind gains in the actual metals. As ZeroHedge reports, gold and silver were clear winners over the course of January in terms of performance when […]

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Gold Stocks To Rally Like During The Great Depression And Early 70’s

Gold Stocks To Rally Like During The Great Depression And Early 70’s

Below, is an extract of my Gold Mining Fractal Analysis Report. “He answered and said unto them, When it is evening, ye say, It will be fair weather: for the sky is red. And in the morning, It will be foul weather to day: for the sky is red and lowering.”- Jesus Christ During the Great Depression, at a certain point, gold stocks started a massive rally. While most things were going down in price, gold stocks made significant gains, becoming one of the best performing sectors during that time. It was no coincidence that gold stocks performed as well as they did. Like all goods, gold stocks will thrive […]

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Some notes about HUI gold stocks index

Some notes about HUI gold stocks index

We are seeing a definite reversal in the price action of the gold miners in comparison to the action in the broader equity markets in today’s session. I am not sure of the reason but whatever it is, the result is that the mining shares are finally seeing a strong bid in comparison to the broader equity markets.As most gold mining shareholders have been all too painfully aware of by now, the mining shares have been lagging the broader market for the last 6 months or so now. Notice the peak last summer and the progression lower, particularly at the end of last year.Trying to decipher at what level the analysts have pencilled in the […]

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HUI gold stocks index higher but showing signs of selling pressure

HUI gold stocks index higher but showing signs of selling pressure

Take a look at the following chart and you will see what I am referring to. The mining shares gapped up today on the opening trying to catch up a bit with the overnight surge in gold and in silver but after that, most of them went nowhere. That is not a bullish sign for continuing their move higher. They did attract some dip buying later in the session but the shares are reflecting a lack of confidence that the rally in the metals is going to continue tomorrow. We will see whether or not they are prescient. Author: Trader Dan, specialized in commodities (gold, silver, ea)

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Dollar’s Influence on Gold

Dollar’s Influence on Gold

In our previous essays, we emphasized that the long- and short-term trends for gold are up. In today’s article, we will feature the current situation in the USD and Euro Indices and in the general stock market. After analyzing each of them, we will move to implications for the precious metals investors. Let’s start with the analysis of the USD Index (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.) Our first chart this week is the very long-term USD Index chart. We see little change in the situation since last week. There has been no confirmed breakout above the late 2010- early 2011 highs and the long-term trend remains down. In the short-term Euro Index chart, there […]

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