Tag: gold outlook
Gold’s rate of change has been more dramatic than U.S. debt, as suggested by the second chart. As the price of gold is in the process to make a lower low currently, it’s rate of change is close to coincide with the one of U.S. debt. The chart suggests that the gold price correction after 2011 was to be expected, given that the yellow metal had risen too much, too fast. Our opinion is that the correction in precious metals is not over, but that the downside is limited.
Our most interesting observation of this week is that gold has traded flat for a couple of days but that gold and silver miners were rising significantly on those days. We know that miners have a track record of leading the metals both higher and lower. That being said, this week’s price action in the gold mining space could be of exceptional significance. The three key gold and silver mining indices are all flashing the same bullish signals. The chart below features several indicators which are mainly sending bullish signals.
Gold prices can be amazingly volatile, especially when fear increases and a majority of people lose confidence in debt based fiat currencies, central banks, and politicians. If the analogue continues for several more years, we might see gold prices increase by a factor of five to ten into the $5,000 to $10,000 range in five to seven years (double the 3.5 year rally in the 1970s). We should not expect this analogue to predict gold prices, but we should NOT discount the possibility of a similar pattern unfolding.
After its stellar performance this week, gold might do something it hasn’t done since 2012—that is, end the year in positive territory. Responding to a weaker U.S. dollar, continued contraction in global growth and wide speculation that interest rates will stay near-zero for the remainder of the year, the yellow metal broke above its 200-day moving average and is close to erasing its 2015 losses.
What gold and silver investors want to know above all is when the bull market will resume. In a very real sense, it already has resumed. Futures market prices aside, evidence abounds that a raging bull market in physical precious metals is now underway.
It is getting very exciting in the gold market! We have shown several bullish gold indicators in the last couple of weeks. Here is the thing: the number of bullish indicators keeps on growing. At these low price levels, the number of bullish indicators keeps on growing, and that points to a trend change.
Bloomberg reports today an extremely interesting insight from the options market. Based on data compiled for SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) by Bloomberg, the put-to-call ratio, or the number of bearish options trading compared with bullish ones, is at the lowest since 2012. “The open interest on puts fell to the lowest since mid-July on Sept. 21, signaling bears may be losing their stranglehold on the market.” These data show that gold bears are finally showing signs of fatigue, if options trading is any indication.
Gold rallied strongly yesterday on a safe haven bid amid stock market turmoil. As the stock market was sinking lower, moving closer to its August lows, gold and silver in USD moved more than 2% higher. More interestingly, gold miners rallied more than 5% on the day. The million dollar question is where we go from here. Let’s look at two charts to get an idea of gold’s and the miners’ outlook.
Gold prices could (I doubt it) fall further in the short term, since High Frequency Trading dominates trading action, and central banks need to hide the fact that their policies and currencies are failing, which usually means they suppress gold prices. Gold was formerly the “canary in the coal mine” indicating the failure of monetary and fiscal policies. But active suppression of gold prices has replaced the “canary” with a plastic look-alike that disguises the warning signal which tells us that something is very wrong with our monetary policies.
Gold prices began this week on a slightly negative note as prices drifted back towards their lowest levels since mid-August after US payrolls data failed to provide clarity on the timing of a US Federal Reserve rate hike, and as the dollar steadied against other majors. Despite concerns about the Fed tightening, gold recorded its best month this year, gaining around, gaining about 3.4% for August for its first advance since May.
There is an obvious 7 year cycle in economics. Stock markets are overdue for a major correction. During periods of financial turmoil people have always turned to gold for safety.
I’ve been bearish on gold for so long that my successively lower targets have become almost perfunctory. Lately, I’ve focused on a ‘Hidden Pivot’ target at $817, the attainment of which would presumably wash out the last of the die-hard bulls, clearing the way for a resumption of the long-term bull market. Now, however, I am obliged to consider an alternative possibility — i.e., an explosive move without the washout. Although I lack the imagination to envision such world-shaking news as might cause this to happen, I credit a relatively recent Rick’s Picks subscriber, Michael Gibbons, with jarring me awake.
Could it be that these convincing forecasts are a contrarian indicator? Let’s face it, the “consensus trade” is that gold will and must go lower. When everyone is convinced about an asset moving in one direction, usually the opposite happens.