Tag: gold markets

How Would Markets React If Trump Is Actually Forced Out of Office?

How Would Markets React If Trump Is Actually Forced Out of Office?

Donald Trump’s policy agenda – and his very presidency – are in jeopardy… …at least if you believe the chatter on cable television. Yes, for weeks now, the big media outlets have been stirring up talk of impeachment. One narrative after another – Russia, Comey, Kushner, etc. – yet no conclusive evidence of any “high crimes and misdemeanors.” Still, Democrats in Congress smell blood in the water… and they have readied articles of impeachment for introduction as soon as an opportunity presents. But investors don’t seem particularly concerned about the implications of political turmoil intensifying in Washington. The stock market keeps edging higher with minimal volatility. The only hint of […]

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Forget about Fake News… Let’s Talk about Fake Markets

Forget about Fake News… Let’s Talk about Fake Markets

The U.S. and other nations with “free market” economies got credit for defeating the communists in Russia. That is ironic, because it is now more clear than ever that western leadership actually shares the Soviet inclination for central planning, and they have been increasingly intervening in our markets since the collapse of the USSR. Our officials make economic policy as if healthy markets must be planned and coerced, much like the politburo. Some of this policy is created and run in the open; the government bailouts, Quantitative Easing, and zero interest rate policy, for example. Other programs are more secretive. Investors know the “Plunge Protection Team” exists to be the […]

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Are Gold Traders Too Complacent?

Are Gold Traders Too Complacent?

While geopolitical events continue to create market anxiety, gold prices are unlikely to surge higher according to the options market.  In fact, gold options volatility, reflected by the CBOE’s gold implied volatility index GVZ, is nearing a 7-year low, which was last hit, in mid-March.  Current levels reflect market complacency. While it appears that gold prices are sliding sideways waiting for the next impetus to drive them higher or lower, the decline in implied volatility ahead of the French and British elections in May and June respectively reflect that gold option traders believe the status quo is the likely outcome. Just as a refresher, implied volatility is the markets estimate […]

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