Tag: gold futures

Future Gold Prices

Future Gold Prices

The internet is filled with predictions for the price of gold, from $500 to $50,000 per ounce. It depends on your world view. If you are a central banker or a powerful financial player which often supplies loyal employees to serve as Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, the low gold numbers look good. Or, if you understand the incredible $200+ Trillion of debt the world has accumulated and realize it can’t be repaid, then gold at $10,000 probably looks inevitable. Crashes occur and sovereign debt markets look like paper bubbles with disastrous potential to send gold much higher. A better approach to estimating future gold prices, in my opinion, is […]

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COT Data For Gold At Topworthy Level

| October 31, 2015 | Category: Trading
COT Data For Gold At Topworthy Level

Last week we noted that the level of commercial net short positions was high enough to get ready for a trend change. That’s a cue to be extra attentive to indications of trend change. That trend change was brought about by the FOMC’s Oct. 28 announcement, which hinted at a probable rate hike in December 2015. How did the commercials know that was the way that the ball was going to bounce? They do seem to have that talent a lot of the time, which I suppose is how they got to be the big money.

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Gold Price Higher Today On Short Squeeze

| August 10, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold Price Higher Today On Short Squeeze

If anything, gold rose today as a result of a short squeeze. Looking at the positions of traders at COMEX gold, it appears that commercial traders are holding the lowest net short position in gold in history.

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Ted Butler: Price Takers and Price Makers

| July 30, 2015 | Category: Price
Ted Butler: Price Takers and Price Makers

No one speculative trader would be allowed to buy or sell 10%, 20% or 40% of any commodity market in a short period of time and neither should a small group of traders, trading in lockstep, be allowed to do the same. Remember we’re talking about a very small number of managed money traders, close to 30 or 50 traders in most markets. Why should 30 or 50 purely speculative CME traders be allowed to set the price for the millions and even billions of world participants who must then take the prices dictated to them?

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Is Gold a Stupid Pet Rock or a Bedrock Asset?

| July 20, 2015 | Category: Investing
Is Gold a Stupid Pet Rock or a Bedrock Asset?

This isn’t the first time we’ve seen a major disconnect between futures and bullion. Coin prices spiked relative to spot prices in the months following the 2008 financial crisis and a handful of times since spot prices began correcting in 2011. Time will tell if the current pergence is temporary or something more permanent.

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BPR April: Precious Metals Suppression In COMEX Market Continues

| April 13, 2015 | Category: Investing
BPR April: Precious Metals Suppression In COMEX Market Continues

As I said last month at this time—along with a couple of Wall Street investment houses, these are “da boyz’—the sellers of last resort—and you can call them what you like. Until they decide, or are instructed to stand back, the prices of all four precious metals are going nowhere—supply and demand fundamentals be damned! As Jim Rickards so correctly put it, the price management scheme is now so obvious, they should be embarrassed about it. But they obviously aren’t.

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COT Report Points To A Meaningful Gold And Silver Rally

| March 23, 2015 | Category: Trading
COT Report Points To A Meaningful Gold And Silver Rally

The latest Commitment of Traders Report for futures positions held at the close of trading on Tuesday March 17th 2015 is very encouraging. We can easily conclude, based on the data, that the current setup in futures positions point to a meaningful rally, at least in the short run, in both gold and silver. In other words, the selling in the ongoing cycle seems to be behind us, and a new short to mid term cycle should have started last week. To back up our thesis, we are looking at the rate of change of commercials short positions in the COT report. We have used this time and again, so far each time with success.

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Commitment of Traders Report: JP Morgan Still Short Silver Around 18,500 Contracts

| March 2, 2015 | Category: Trading
Commitment of Traders Report: JP Morgan Still Short Silver Around 18,500 Contracts

This is an excerpt from Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Daily Newsletter, with an overview of the most actual COMEX futures market positions.

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COMEX Gold Analysis – Has Gold Bottomed?

| February 23, 2015 | Category: Trading
COMEX Gold Analysis – Has Gold Bottomed?

Both Ed Steer and Ted Butler consider the COMEX market structure as evidenced by the latest COT report not very good. Ed’s estimate is that we still have about fifty or so dollars to the downside left in gold, and maybe one dollar or bit more in silver. However, he adds to it that if the commercials really want to get aggressive, we are nowhere near a price bottom. That confirms our chart analysis. Gold bulls should be prepared, as there is not enough evidence yet of a final bottom.

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Events Impacting Gold And Silver In The Week Of February 23d

| February 22, 2015 | Category: Price
Events Impacting Gold And Silver In The Week Of February 23d

For the week commencing February 23d, there are quite some economic data coming out. No central bank announcement is planned. Our expectation is that the GDP data in the U.S. on Friday can cause some volatility in COMEX gold and silver, hence influence the gold and silver price. The German and U.K. GDP, German and U.S. inflation index CPI, etc should not result in signficant gold or silver price changes, unless those data would be very shocking.

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Ted Butler: A Remarkable Proposition

Ted Butler: A Remarkable Proposition

A remarkable new paper by a Cornell law professor and CFTC staff counsel suggests that many aspects of high frequency computer trading (HFT) may be, in fact, illegal under various provisions of basic commodity law. Heretofore, it was generally assumed that HFT was legal, but disabused and impacted markets in disruptive manner on occasion. Many, like myself, never looked on HFT favorably, but few have tried to make the legal case against it. Scopino looked at HFT not through the universal perspective of something that’s here to stay and that we must get used to; to looking at it through an interpretation that it might violate existing law. His conclusion appears to be that much of HFT is not properly aligned with existing commodity law.

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We Are Close To A Point Where COMEX Price Manipulation Will Become Ineffective

| February 10, 2015 | Category: Investing
We Are Close To A Point Where COMEX Price Manipulation Will Become Ineffective

Judging by the increasing numbers of commentators and observers now including the developments in futures trading on the COMEX as the prime price influence on gold and silver, I am greatly encouraged. I firmly believe that we are much closer than ever to the point where enough see the COMEX price manipulation to render it ineffective. We are not there yet, but that day will come.

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Events Impacting Gold And Silver In The Week Of February 9th

| February 9, 2015 | Category: Price
Events Impacting Gold And Silver In The Week Of February 9th

For the week commencing February 9th, there is a very limited number of economic data coming out. No central bank announcements are planned. If gold and silver will be moving, it will not be because of economic or monetary data. As the table below indicates, retail sales will be released in the U.S. on Thursday, while Germany will publish their GDP growth on Friday. The precious metals are vulerable lately. That is, in our opinion, not because of economic data, but because of futures positions in the COMEX market. As we have shown a week ago, commercials have accumulated short positions at an astonishing rate. That is the real reason why gold’s rally is “capped.”

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Precious Metals Monthly Bank Participation Report: February 2015

| February 8, 2015 | Category: Trading
Precious Metals Monthly Bank Participation Report: February 2015

As you can tell, with the exception of palladium, the banks of the world—especially the “3 or less” U.S. banks, have been going massively short against all comers since these latest rallies in gold, silver and platinum began at the start of 2015. Along with a couple of Wall Street investment houses, these are “da boyz’—the sellers of last resort.

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