Tag: gold cycles

Gold Could Lose Safe-Haven Bid as Equities Rebound

Gold Could Lose Safe-Haven Bid as Equities Rebound

Gold and Silver have held up well during the recent selloff in equities. From December 28 through Wednesday the broad NYSE lost 10.4% while the S&P 500 lost 9.6%. Precious Metals gained strength during that period. Gold advanced 3.0% while Silver gained 1.7%. Gold relative to the NYSE broke its downtrend and touched an 11-month high. Gold relative to global equities (excluding the US market) reached a 2-year high. Precious metals have clearly benefitted from the equity selloff but therefore figure to lose strength as the equity market begins a relief rally. Equities have become very oversold and are forming a bullish reversal. The weekly candle chart of the S&P […]

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Gold Facts and Gold Speculations

| August 18, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold Facts and Gold Speculations

Yes, economic and financial conditions probably will deteriorate, central banks will print, and gold prices will rise. The next 8 year gold cycle low is due in 2017 – it might be a short and sharp drop leading into several more years of rally toward the 8 year cycle high around 2019. However cycles may become less important as a consequence of overwhelming economic and financial stress. We shall see much higher gold prices, regardless of cycle influences.

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Gold Cycles: Is It Different This Time?

| February 5, 2015 | Category: Technicals
Gold Cycles: Is It Different This Time?

At some point, it will be “different this time”, and we will see a change in Gold’s character that is reflected in a new bull trend. At that point, recent Investor Cycle history will no longer be relevant. Similar to a satellite in orbit that needs an event to alter its course, Gold will need some catalyst to escape the pull of the bear market. Until then, we can only be guided by history. The last 7 Investor Cycles show that once speculative positions have reached current levels (as seen in the COT report), the Investor Cycle has peaked.

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Gold Miners Holding Up Well Could Spell Strength Of Current Gold Cycle

| June 2, 2014 | Category: Price
Gold Miners Holding Up Well Could Spell Strength Of Current Gold Cycle

I’m encouraged by what I see with the Miners. For the first time since the markets topped, investors are not pricing in a failure of the Gold Cycle. Generally, the Miners will overshoot the Gold Cycle both on the high side in a bull market, and on the downside in a bear market. They are leveraged to the price of Gold and carry a higher beta, so can be much more volatile around key Cycle pivots.

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August Could Bring Further Losses For Gold

| July 14, 2013 | Category: Price
August Could Bring Further Losses For Gold

The bearish performance to date likely indicates that once the Cycle ages that it could quickly turn down sold aggressively. This might well coincide with the dollar coming out of its own DCL late next week. Up until then though, gold still has a chance to prove me wrong. I believe even in the bearish case that gold should have enough steam to get it to $1,300. But now is its only chance to shine. If the gains cannot come quickly from this setup, then I’m afraid gold is setting up for yet another big fall.

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Gold Cycles: This Could Be A Low!

| July 11, 2013 | Category: Price
Gold Cycles: This Could Be A Low!

Why will gold prices continue to increase? Our current monetary system depends upon an exponentially increasing debt and money supply. It seems likely that the US government will continue to run massive budget deficits and thereby increase total debt. In addition the central banks of Japan, the EU, and the US will continue to monetize debt and increase the money supply in order to promote asset inflation and to overwhelm the deflationary forces in their respective economies.

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Gold & Silver Cycle Charts Look Constructive

Gold & Silver Cycle Charts Look Constructive

Although no price appreciation since writing the weekend report, the Gold Cycle nevertheless is constructive. We’ve seen a 14 day streak that has quietly and patiently added 4.3% since the last Cycle Low. The fact that gold has generally ascended for 14 days has almost ensured that our Cycle phasing as a first Daily Cycle is correct. This is important; the first step is to understand which Cycle we are in.

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