In this article, John Mauldin looks in a critical way to the positive economic forecasts of mainstream economists. He points to the very low statistical probability that we will not have a recession in the US for the rest of the decade. Presumably, we all agree with that. Yet not one budget projection assumes a slowdown, let alone a recession, which would absolutely devastate any budget as far as deficits are concerned. His research shows how bad economists really are at forecasting.
There is an excess of monetary heroin, Quantitative Easing, in Europe, the UK, Japan, the USA and elsewhere. (When will they ever learn?) The S&P 500 is hitting new highs and gold and silver are sitting roughly at two year lows. Strange and stranger every day…….
Peter Schiff comments on the latest disappointing US GDP figures and the real inflation rate. Since 2002 the price of a Big Mac is up with 6% while the CPI has increased less than 2%. Besides he discusses the increase of 3.2% in consumer spending, the decrease of earnings and the savings rate (which stands at its lowest points since Q4 2007).
This piece seeks to make the economic case for savers to allocate wealth to physical gold (in proper form) and for investors to allocate capital to precious metal miners. Our argument orients readers with our economic and market predispositions, seeks to explain current macroeconomic events within that context and outlines gold’s fundamental valuation framework.
In the past couple of weeks there has been an accumulation of worrying economic indicators, to say the least. This short article provides an overview. Is it a coincidence that gold and silver crashed, just like in the summer of 2008?
Gold prices seem to have stabilized for now, after a tumultuous two weeks, when the price of the yellow metal was driven down by speculators on Comex who reacted to the slightest bit of economic news. But the bull market is far from over, here is why.
Recent economic data have disappointed. At the same time our leaders pretend that the prospects of the economy are good to great. A confusing situation with mixed signals – what and who to believe?
In order to bring unemployment down to the 6.5% level, the economy will need to add nearly 5 million jobs. For those who fear an end to this great gold bull market, please put this into perspective. Understand that the powers to be will not or cannot tell the public what is really occurring. By increasing the amount of fiat money supply, you reduce the burden of debt as you devalue its worth and raise the “nominal” price of all assets.
The recent decision of the Japanese to inflate their economic growth is not an isolated decision. Japan is a closed market but they are not operating in a vacuum. The “unintended consequences” of their decision could reach to a global scale. In particular, the currency devaluation which is the result of the inflationary policy, is not exactly the type of outcome that the other economic powerhouses wished for. This brings the global currency war front stage globally.
In a recent interview with Gold Silver Worlds, John Rubino (co-author of “The Collapse of the dollar” and owner of DollarCollapse.com) explained how bad the economic fundamentals really are. The economic situation looks under control currently, but John Rubino is convinced we are now in the eye of the storm. He concludes that the longer this unbalanced situation goes on the faster the eventual collapse will play out. John Rubino published his book in 2004 together with James Turk from GoldMoney. The main theme of the book was that governments in the US lost control over their spending and borrowing, which would ultimately result in some sort of catastrophic crisis. [...]
In his weekly update, Michael Pento analyzed some important macro economic data globally. He came to the well known conclusion that economic conditions worldwide are deteriorating. In this article, you will read the latest macro economic data with Michael Pento’s interpretation.
The new Thunder Report is out. The author reviews the macro economic prospects for 2013-15, based on the long wave or Kondratieff Cycle. In the past, following the Kondratieff Cycle gave a 91% probability on success. It is now signalling that a new crisis is looming on the horizon. Excessive debt is the key driver. The Kondratieff Cycle is in its last of four big cycles that started in 1788. The end of this large cycle will be characterized by debt reduction through INFLATION and by DEFLATION in the prices of almost everything in terms of gold. That’s why the title of the current edition of The Thunder Report is [...]
We often read or hear quotes like “paper money eventually fail” and “paper money always returns to its intrinsic value which is zero.” In this article, we provide evidence why these statements are true, backed by research in which 599 different forms of paper money have been analyzed. We explain in an easy to understand way what money fundamentally is, how monetary policies of governments are affecting everyone of us and how gold is first and foremost an alternative form of money (for each and every one of us, not only for an elite). Courtesy of Vince Cate for the incredibly valuable research and David Morgan who referred us to [...]
Marc Faber is one of the very successful investors on earth. He recently explained his view on the monetary policies of the developed regions in the world. Obviously he is no fan of the Keynesian way of thinking which is applied by the central banks in the developed regions. The Keynesian policy considers easy money as a way out of economic recession and deflation. They argue that money creation smoothens out the business cycle. In his presentation, Marc Faber demonstrates that these kind of interventions achieve exactly the opposite: they make the business cycles much more violent, create extreme fluctuations in economic activity and result in far more financial volatility. In [...]
Earlier this year, Peter Schiff published his book “The Real Crash”, which explains how an economy grows and how it crashes, in simple language. Yesterday’s Black Friday appeared to be an ideal event to explain again the basic principles he presents in his book. The author commented on the picture of Black Friday that the media has created: people stepping out of warehouses with their shopping carts full of goods. He points to the key problem that the all those goods are produced in other countries (in this case, seen from the perspective of the US). Peter Schiff explained in his book and he repeats again that “it’s not the buying” [...]
Gold & Silver Price Down As Fed Could End Bond Purchases In 2014
Fair or not, like it or not, the US Fed is currently the most powerful financial organization on this planet. Today, during a press conference after a two-day meeting of the Fed (FOMC), the chairman of the Fed took almost all markets down. Precious metals, equities and bonds went sharply lower. There was something going up though: the dollar and the 10 year interest rate.
Gold And Silver – Greater Certainty Is Found In Charts
We can assert the trend is down because of lower lows and lower highs. What can be seen, at this point, is a very small range, so far, following a small range in May that closed poorly. What we know for certain is that the downtrend has not yet changed, so lower prices can be expected. We may hold an opinion that gold will ultimately be considerably higher in value, but there is no confirmation that price has begun to rally.
JPMorgan Now Long Gold. A Game Changer?
JP Morgan was able to maneuver itself to the long side of the gold market while speculators (which by nature are long during the bull market) have been pushed to the short side. Does it mean that the gold price will move up right away? No, although it could. Timing a price move is not what COT is about. But with the largest holder of gold futures contract on the long side of the market things could seem less bearish as the picture that has been painted lately.
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