Tag: economic analysis
The Fed’s next move will be towards ease because of the weakness in the US economy. However, it would not happen right away, I expect it in the first quarter of 2016, so perhaps in March or April of 2016 I think the Fed will give some kind of easing. What happened in the last 30 days is exactly what we were expecting, but I think it’s come as a shock to them, because their forecasting models are different. And so they’re beginning to wake up to the fact that we’re going to a global depression and growth depression. But now the Fed is waking up to that, they don’t do anything quickly, it’s going to take a few months to digest all of this, they’re going to hope that things bounce back, but I don’t think that they will. Finally, I expect them by maybe the end of the first quarter of 2016 to ease.
Debt overwhelms most people in debt based fiat currency economies. Credit cards, auto loans, student loans, mortgages, and more … Debt overwhelms most governments in debt based fiat currency economies. They are in debt because governments spend more than their revenues, which is a truly simple concept. However, don’t expect fiscal sanity to return anytime soon.
Our debt based monetary system requires ever increasing debt, inflation, and expansion. Think about the implications of $400,000 helmets and $85 Billion per month in QE. The continued devaluation of all fiat currencies is a given, based on debt, government spending and central bank policies. Hence silver and gold prices will rise substantially in upcoming years, partially because people want and need it, and mostly because fiat paper currencies are devaluing every day.
The Treasury Department declared a debt ceiling deadline of November 3rd. Outgoing House Speaker John Boehner will try to push through a debt increase before his scheduled departure on Friday (when he’ll likely hand over the gavel to Paul Ryan). If Congress can’t come to an agreement this week, markets could get rattled on the looming possibility of a U.S. default.
Greece offers us an interesting example. It will allow us to observe the spread of the tentacles of Europe-style statism as well as the measures the population will undoubtedly take to resist it. Since the Greeks are unlikely to meekly submit to statist oppression, this promises to be quite exciting. Who knows, we may eventually even get the opportunity to see what happens if a total cash ban is introduced. Given that Greece is brimming with British gold sovereigns, we can already guess how such a decree would be undermined by enterprising Greeks.
Saxo Capital Markets main scenario for balance of 2015 and into 2016 is this: Fed will not hike in 2015. We’ll see a weaker USD. Gold (& silver) will be the best performing asset class into the end of Q1-2016. SCM sees gold in 1400/1450 by end of Q1-2016.
It occurs to us that we are all in the midst of the New World Order going about business as usual, creating Problems, and the bigger the better, then watching reactions of the masses, even governments. The worse possible the problems, the more horrifying the Reactions the better. For waiting in the wings is their planned Solution, all leading toward global takeover under a one world rule, like the UN.
For centuries, people living in Western Civilization have been accumulating capital. They have not simply subsisted, and left the world the same as when they entered it. They have been creating more than they consume, passing on new wealth to their children. The Fed’s falling interest rate has slammed this process into reverse. It has put the entire economy into liquidation mode. It has forced people to consume their capital.
The inflation camp shares the conviction with deflationists that there is too much debt in the system. But they differ on the outcome. Harry Dent and those in his deflation camp figure that central banks and governments will ultimately be powerless to stop default. They think the purchasing power of the dollar will rise against everything else, including gold. We expect default to occur primarily through inflation, with debts stealthily repudiated through repayment in less valuable dollars.
So how would any of this debt ever be settled were it called in tomorrow? The U.S. currently holds “only” 8,133.5 tonnes of gold in its reserves, a significant decline from the all-time high of over 20,000 tonnes in the 1950s. This amount calculates to about $340 billion—nothing to sneeze at, but a far cry from the current U.S. debt level. It’s unlikely that gold will ever reach $33,900 per ounce but the fact that supply has not kept up with debt levels suggests that prices might very well rise.
In the unlikely event that the Fed raises rates in September, gold looks poised to continue higher over the long-term as investors will likely seek out its wealth preservation qualities as the U.S. Dollar continues to lose value in real terms. The global economy is not strong, and in fact could not tolerate higher interest rates. The ongoing currency war will also serve to keep currency values down as economies fight to keep moving forward.
By Shadow of Truth from The Daily Coin: There is a trend, we can see a clear opposition is growing, we have more people moving toward our point of view than the Statists’ views. At the end of the day, how much worse does it need to become until the people finally realize that they are completely enslaved.
The Incrementum Advisory Board gathers once per quarter to discuss the economic and financial outlook. Respected people like Jim Rickards and Heinz Blasnik are part of the panel. We encourage serious market students to thoroughly read the document as it contains wealth of insights. We picked out 25 insights related to the state of the monetary system, economy and markets.