Tag: economic analysis
The Incrementum Advisory Board gathers once per quarter to discuss the economic and financial outlook. Respected people like Jim Rickards and Heinz Blasnik are part of the panel. We encourage serious market students to thoroughly read the document as it contains wealth of insights. We picked out 25 insights related to the state of the monetary system, economy and markets.
Depending on the magnitude of additional “money printing” that the world’s central banks will unleash upon the global financial community, we could see hyperinflation in several countries within a few years. Why? Central banks will try everything to avoid or reverse a deflationary collapse in paper asset markets because a deflationary collapse is “game over” for their credibility, governments, and politicians. They will print and print more and continue to fuel the inflationary boom, and … the bigger the boom, the larger the distortions, and the deeper the collapse.
A reset in the financial system seems inevitable. We survived other resets, such as the depression of the 1930s, WWII, 1971 separation of the dollar from gold, 1970s inflation, year 2000 stock crashes, and the 2008 financial crash. The world will survive the next reset. Excess debt, fiat currencies, and “printing currency” are the center of global economic problems. Those problems will not be resolved with more debt and “printing currency.” If central banks and politicians choose hyperinflation, all bets are off regarding how high gold and silver will climb, and how crazy our Twilight Zone world will become.
News from the financial world becomes more bizarre every day. We are slipping over the edge into Twilight Zone Economies. Which do you trust? The Twilight Zone of paper promises, politicians, central bankers, and massive, unbelievable, unpayable debt where some investments “pay” negative interest; or gold and silver?
For those who understand the tremendous financial and geopolitical forces that today are vying not so much for supremacy as they were previously, but for survival; gold remains as it always has been—a store of value in times of monetary chaos and economic distress. In March 2007, I predicted that an economic crisis would happen. It did. That crisis has yet to run its course to make way for the better world to come. In my Dollars & Sense youtube video, . I make another forecast. These are interesting times. Get used to it.
Investors started off 2015 with a slow global economy, low oil prices, a strong Dollar, and a deflationary Europe with great uncertainties on the progress of the US economy and the recent launch of Europe’s quantitative easing. The question is, what opportunities lie ahead? This article highlights the main topics covered in an interview between Mr. Frank Suess with the globally renowned Swiss fund manager, Mr. Felix Zulauf.
If you do not own it now, you are playing a game of [irresponsible]risk. For those who already own precious metals, even for prices at the highs, accept it and be glad you own either or both. The insane banker’s world in which we live will come to an end, and likely a disastrous one. Keep on stacking, keep on staking. On a relative scale, price should be your least concern.
What I find extremely annoying is the fact that while these banks commit just about every financial crime imaginable, the regulatory bodies refuse to prosecute any banker and continue to harass hard working individuals instead. And, many of these individuals have merely taken precautionary measures to protect their wealth against corrupt governments as well as bad monetary policies.
The US government has consistently increased its expenses from 1980 as shown and since 1913, not shown. SNAP (food stamp) program costs increased erratically and inevitably. This program alone consumes the entire official US gold hoard every four years. Really? Gold prices have increased erratically and exponentially since 1971. Given the exponentially increasing government debt and ongoing military adventures, gold prices will inevitably reflect the declining value of fiat currencies and rally much higher.
Liberty is a fundamental human right and the cornerstone of our existence. But in our current world, liberty is being attacked from all directions, whether through higher state control or individuals themselves. Liberty is in search for its protector. Those that value and actively promote the ideals of freedom and liberty are few in such an enclosing environment. In the following article, Claudio Grass, Managing Director at Global Gold Switzerland, ventures into a discussion with one of the vanguards of liberty, former President of the Czech Republic, Prof. Ing. Václav Klaus.
The race to the bottom continues unabated in the currency wars. And, no matter where you live, if you are stupid enough to believe the rhetoric being spewed out by politicians then you deserve to suffer the consequences. Unfortunately, you have to have a financial insurance policy that will save you from the actions of the current financial and political elite. While there are lots of great options available, owning physical gold and especially silver should be an essential part of this policy.
For the week commencing February 9th, there is a very limited number of economic data coming out. No central bank announcements are planned. If gold and silver will be moving, it will not be because of economic or monetary data. As the table below indicates, retail sales will be released in the U.S. on Thursday, while Germany will publish their GDP growth on Friday. The precious metals are vulerable lately. That is, in our opinion, not because of economic data, but because of futures positions in the COMEX market. As we have shown a week ago, commercials have accumulated short positions at an astonishing rate. That is the real reason why gold’s rally is “capped.”
We do not know what the future entails when our existing monetary and financial systems break down, but we are convinced that gold and silver will offer security (at least) in the transition period. If we look at the gold purchases by the East, it also reveals how emerging markets have set their minds on gold. This further supports our conviction that a form of gold standard might regain a prominent status and take over once again. However, the prevailing monetary experiment called “fiat currency” is likely to persist for some time to come.
Jakobsen argues that in the current economic environment that what a metals trader needs to focus on is deflation. When deflation bottoms out, which is something likely to happen during Q1 of 2015, it will be the biggest buy signal for metals. Jakobsen’s base scenario is that Q1 and Q2 will become the worst part of the business cycle with the lowest inflation expectation, the lowest growth, the lowest ability to do anything and increasing volatility at the same time. But he believes that as this low energy, as these low interest rates and as the terms of trade for Europe improve, we will see a better second half than we’ll see a first half.