For the week commencing March 2nd, there are some important economic data and central bank announcements, as seen in the table below. The interest rate decision of the European central bank on Thursday is undoubtedly the key announcement this week. Friday is an important day because of the unemployment report and nonfarm payrolls for the month of February. Our expectation is that the events on Thursday and Friday have the potential to create volatility in COMEX gold and silver, hence influence the gold and silver price. The PMI report in the U.S. and Europe, CPI in Europe, and Yellen’s speech at Citizens Budget Commission’s Annual Awards Dinner are not likely to cause volatility in the metals market.
Tag: debt crisis
The timing for any collapse of the banking system and the mistaken belief it will foster a new gold-backed system keeps getting pushed back for as long as smaller governments like Greece, actually all the PIIGS, can be kept subservient to the 1%’s bidding, for as long as the US war machine can keep all the other smaller countries in fear while the US mounts a false flag attack on Russia via the US-induced coup in Ukraine, gold and silver will remain as pawns in these dirty wars. One thing is certain, having physical gold and silver will provide a store of value for those who hold either or both.
The results of the Greek elections and the ECB’s monetary bazooka are all symptoms of the same underlying problem. Debt is not only destroying the value of a currency, but is also destroying values of a population. Governments have not been “managing” the effects when they acquired the loans, but one way or another they feel the need to “manage” the destructive effects when it becomes payback time. And what is the answer? Simple, creating even more debts and devaluing currencies even further. When one country does this in some sort of hypothecial vaccuum, it could theoretically work. But it does not work at all when all regions worldwide are implementing the same policies, simultaneously. The middle and lower class of society are the ultimate victims.
The key take-away of this article is that gold has not lost its luster, contrary to what mainstream media and pundits have been explaining in the last two years. Despite the big decline in the price of gold in the first half of 2013, gold has been holding up very well since then, and is clearly acting as a safe haven of late.
Jakobsen argues that in the current economic environment that what a metals trader needs to focus on is deflation. When deflation bottoms out, which is something likely to happen during Q1 of 2015, it will be the biggest buy signal for metals. Jakobsen’s base scenario is that Q1 and Q2 will become the worst part of the business cycle with the lowest inflation expectation, the lowest growth, the lowest ability to do anything and increasing volatility at the same time. But he believes that as this low energy, as these low interest rates and as the terms of trade for Europe improve, we will see a better second half than we’ll see a first half.
If we review the events of 2014, it seems the situation has intensified: governments are still overwhelmed with debt, our fiat money system is unsupported, our central banks insist on accumulating debt and making money valueless. It doesn’t look all too good. Or does it? Will someone realize we have to pull the plug? And when we do, because it will happen whether we want it or not, how can we support ourselves from the damage that we will all have to endure? I am a strong advocate of physical gold and can’t stress enough the importance of owning physical precious metals stored outside the banking system.
The essential trust in fiat currencies is beginning to fade. People look aghast at the “debt clock” in Times Square now surpassing $18 trillion. Their minds are boggled at the trillions of new dollars created by the Fed via extraordinary maneuvers such as Quantitative Easing. Today, there are real questions about the solvency of the U.S. government, and the value of the scrip issued on its behalf.
Given the data points discussed in this article, it is fair to say that Japan is on track for a devastating bust at some point in the future. The unknown factor is timing. When the inevitable will take place is anyone’s guess. The fate of countries like Japan is really in the hands of central bankers. However, central planners are not able to manipulate markets infinitely. At a certain point, something has to give. That is when the markets will give up and disbelief will replace trust. Readers should remember that in such a bust scenario, people flee down the Golden Pyramid of asset classes to their safe haven, being gold.
Crude oil and silver prices have crashed before, and they will again. But the one constant in our financial universe that seems inevitable, for the foreseeable future, is increasing debt. Crude oil and silver prices will follow increasing debt.
When growth slows in capital markets, the bankers’ daisy-chain of credit and debt breaks down; setting in motion defaulting debt which ends in recession, deflation or, in extreme cases, a deflationary depression. A deflationary depression is a fatal monetary phenomena where the velocity of money—circulating credit and debt—falls so low capital markets are no longer self-sustaining. This happens after the collapse of massive speculative bubbles such as the collapse of the 1929 US stock market bubble which resulted in the world’s first deflationary depression, the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Under today’s paper monetary system, debts and other financial obligations are never extinguished. They are merely passed from one person to another and eventually become an obligation of the government or its central bank. In the U.S. all debts become obligations of the U.S. government as federal reserve notes are by law obligations of the U.S. government. Since the Bank of England is a department of the British government, its bank notes are obligations of the British government. Nevertheless, these debts will eventually be extinguished.
The official US National Debt is about $18,000,000,000,000, or 57 times the current market price of the US gold SUPPOSEDLY stored at Fort Knox, the NY Fed, and elsewhere. With so much paper in the system it is easy to see why the Fed publicly denigrates gold. In the single year from Sept. 30, 2013 to Sept. 30, 2014, the US official national debt increased by over three times the value of all the gold that the US supposedly owns. The total debt and the increase in that debt is clearly “a problem.”
The gold vs S&P500 ratio at the gold peak in 1980 was about 8. The ratio was trending downward from 1980 to about 2001. Subsequent to the stock market crash of 2000, 9-11, and the massive increase in spending and debt, the ratio now trends upward.