Tag: debt crisis
A reset in the financial system seems inevitable. We survived other resets, such as the depression of the 1930s, WWII, 1971 separation of the dollar from gold, 1970s inflation, year 2000 stock crashes, and the 2008 financial crash. The world will survive the next reset. Excess debt, fiat currencies, and “printing currency” are the center of global economic problems. Those problems will not be resolved with more debt and “printing currency.” If central banks and politicians choose hyperinflation, all bets are off regarding how high gold and silver will climb, and how crazy our Twilight Zone world will become.
When debt is rolled over and never repaid, how much is the debt truly worth? Would you lend money to someone who assured you he could only repay the debt by borrowing a larger amount from another person? Clearly not, but this is normal in modern “twilight zone” finance. Gold and silver are real. All paper currencies and fiat debt are less real, less solid, and less reliable. Worse, these are becomes increasingly less real and more unreliable every year as governments devalue their currencies.
Systems will reset and change when exponential growth at current or reduced rates becomes impossible. The transition is likely to be difficult, dangerous, and the ensuing trauma will not fade quietly into the night. Exponentially increasing debt supported by nothing more than exponentially increasing promises will end in national and/or global disaster. When the reset comes, and it may be years away, would you rather hold assets that are based on debt, trust in a possibly insolvent counter-party, and denominated in the currency of an increasingly insolvent government and central bank . . . . or physical gold and silver?
The timing for any collapse of the banking system and the mistaken belief it will foster a new gold-backed system keeps getting pushed back for as long as smaller governments like Greece, actually all the PIIGS, can be kept subservient to the 1%’s bidding, for as long as the US war machine can keep all the other smaller countries in fear while the US mounts a false flag attack on Russia via the US-induced coup in Ukraine, gold and silver will remain as pawns in these dirty wars. One thing is certain, having physical gold and silver will provide a store of value for those who hold either or both.
The results of the Greek elections and the ECB’s monetary bazooka are all symptoms of the same underlying problem. Debt is not only destroying the value of a currency, but is also destroying values of a population. Governments have not been “managing” the effects when they acquired the loans, but one way or another they feel the need to “manage” the destructive effects when it becomes payback time. And what is the answer? Simple, creating even more debts and devaluing currencies even further. When one country does this in some sort of hypothecial vaccuum, it could theoretically work. But it does not work at all when all regions worldwide are implementing the same policies, simultaneously. The middle and lower class of society are the ultimate victims.
The key take-away of this article is that gold has not lost its luster, contrary to what mainstream media and pundits have been explaining in the last two years. Despite the big decline in the price of gold in the first half of 2013, gold has been holding up very well since then, and is clearly acting as a safe haven of late.
Jakobsen argues that in the current economic environment that what a metals trader needs to focus on is deflation. When deflation bottoms out, which is something likely to happen during Q1 of 2015, it will be the biggest buy signal for metals. Jakobsen’s base scenario is that Q1 and Q2 will become the worst part of the business cycle with the lowest inflation expectation, the lowest growth, the lowest ability to do anything and increasing volatility at the same time. But he believes that as this low energy, as these low interest rates and as the terms of trade for Europe improve, we will see a better second half than we’ll see a first half.
If we review the events of 2014, it seems the situation has intensified: governments are still overwhelmed with debt, our fiat money system is unsupported, our central banks insist on accumulating debt and making money valueless. It doesn’t look all too good. Or does it? Will someone realize we have to pull the plug? And when we do, because it will happen whether we want it or not, how can we support ourselves from the damage that we will all have to endure? I am a strong advocate of physical gold and can’t stress enough the importance of owning physical precious metals stored outside the banking system.
The essential trust in fiat currencies is beginning to fade. People look aghast at the “debt clock” in Times Square now surpassing $18 trillion. Their minds are boggled at the trillions of new dollars created by the Fed via extraordinary maneuvers such as Quantitative Easing. Today, there are real questions about the solvency of the U.S. government, and the value of the scrip issued on its behalf.
Given the data points discussed in this article, it is fair to say that Japan is on track for a devastating bust at some point in the future. The unknown factor is timing. When the inevitable will take place is anyone’s guess. The fate of countries like Japan is really in the hands of central bankers. However, central planners are not able to manipulate markets infinitely. At a certain point, something has to give. That is when the markets will give up and disbelief will replace trust. Readers should remember that in such a bust scenario, people flee down the Golden Pyramid of asset classes to their safe haven, being gold.
Crude oil and silver prices have crashed before, and they will again. But the one constant in our financial universe that seems inevitable, for the foreseeable future, is increasing debt. Crude oil and silver prices will follow increasing debt.