Gold, now well into year four of a bear market, continued its familiar pattern on Monday: one step up, two steps back. My long-term correction target remains $810, although I’ll always keep an open mind about trading from the long side, or even initiating a long-term bet, whenever gold is merely creating bullish impulse legs on the hourly chart. For perspective, however, it would take a run-up to 1347, nearly 13% above these levels, to turn the weekly chart unambiguously bullish.
Tag: currency crisis
The first two months of 2015 have seen turmoil in the currency markets extend from Russia and Ukraine to the heart of Europe. “Central Banks Now Open 24/7 Fighting Currency Wars and Deflation,” blared a February 12th Bloomberg headline. Against this backdrop, precious metals have been on the rise in terms of all currencies except the Swiss franc and the U.S dollar.
The key motivation behind the accumulation of gold is undoubtedly linked to secure the country from the increasingly inevitable collapse of the global currency system. As Macleod points out, “this ultimately is the importance of gold for Russia, and the fact she has been acquiring it aggressively suggests Putin knows it. Putin is not like a western politician driven from one trivial crisis to another and wholly reliant on a central bank to handle money matters.”
The race to the bottom continues unabated in the currency wars. And, no matter where you live, if you are stupid enough to believe the rhetoric being spewed out by politicians then you deserve to suffer the consequences. Unfortunately, you have to have a financial insurance policy that will save you from the actions of the current financial and political elite. While there are lots of great options available, owning physical gold and especially silver should be an essential part of this policy.
So far this year the price gold has risen against all major currencies, including the US dollar, with the price above 200-day and 50-day moving averages in bullish formation. To date from its lows gold has risen by up to 13% against the USD, 18% against the pound, 30% against the euro, and 32% against the yen. And, the rise against weaker emerging market currencies has been correspondingly greater. The rising gold price is an early warning of future monetary and currency turmoil. And, as the major central banks around the world continue to print enormous amounts of money, an increase in the demand for physical gold can be expected.
The key take-away of this article is that gold has not lost its luster, contrary to what mainstream media and pundits have been explaining in the last two years. Despite the big decline in the price of gold in the first half of 2013, gold has been holding up very well since then, and is clearly acting as a safe haven of late.
The first one of the QE Central Banks that attempts to exit QE will be flooded with capital inflows with the accompanying strong currency appreciation. Indeed, such currency appreciation will crush the economy via the export sector, whilst it will import price disinflation. This falling inflation will in turn give the central bank the cover to renew again any QE policies. This is the so-called boom and boost inflation-deflation cycle that central bankers create with their bias towards expansionary policies.
With the distortion created by central planners it is unlikely that a long term rise in any asset is able to hold. The global currency war will undoubtedly result in cracks in the monetary system and in several currencies in particular. Do not exclude the landscape to change with a political decision; in a matter of seconds the world could look different. In the same respect, the probability of a monetary event shocking the landscape of currencies is very high. In case gold is remonetized with the aim to alleviate the world’s debt burden, a sudden spike in the price of gold could realistically be expected.
The chart shows how the Hryvnia has been devalued significantly against the USD in 2008, from 0.22 to 0.12. It remained rather stable until this year, when the currency collapsed from 0.12 to 0.08. At the same time, the price of gold in Hryvnia went from 4,000 to 8,000 in 2008. Since the beginning of this year, Hryvnian gold exploded from 10,000 to 17,444 last week.
What matters is the instability of the system. What you need to study is the instability of the system. If you get that right, you will be able to see the collapse coming. The trigger is really irrelevant. A trigger could be the failure of a firm, the failure of an exchange, some kind of panic, a natural disaster, suicide of a prominent person. It really doesn’t matter what it is; what matters is your system is instable and it is going to collapse.
The interesting part for us, gold enthusiasts, is the price of gold in the slaughtered currencies. Gold in Argentine’s Peso is up 30% in the last 30 days; it is trading at all time highs.
Gold in Turkish Lira’s is up 17% in the last 30 days; it is trading just 10% below its all time highs of September 2011.
This article presents a first insight in the sequel to Currency Wars, the best selling book written by Jim Rickards. The new book is titled “The Death of Money, The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System.” The book confirms the predictions made in “Currency Wars” and goes deeper in the matter by explaing how the international monetary system might collapse and how the new monetary system could look like.
In a major US dollar devaluation crisis, which would occur if the US would fail to raise the debt ceiling on Thursday October 17th, there should be a significant impact on the gold price. Jim Rickards wrote about this in his bookin which he envisages a series of ‘black swan’ events that trigger a loss of confidence in the US dollar precipitating a rush to get out of the greenback. In such a scenario, the market would question the Fed’s staying power. A dollar collapse would ensue and gold could double in price overnight.
In this article, author GE Christenson compares the timely character of gold and silver. They have served humanity as a store of value and wealth for over 3,000 years. This is in sharp contrast to the values an habits associated with the (economic and political) establishment. In that respect, think of paper money, unfunded liabilities, pension plans, exponentially increasing debt, massive budget deficits, “too-big-to-fail” banks.