Tag: crude oil

Crude Oil Bottoms and Blues

Crude Oil Bottoms and Blues

Crude oil prices have dropped from about $106 in June of 2014 to briefly under $30 in January of 2016 – down about 74% peak to trough. This appears to be an on-going disaster for oil companies, the banks who loaned money to frackers, oil exporting countries, global stock markets and others. Conventional wisdom suggests that crude oil prices will stay low for a long time because of low demand (global recession), huge supply (Iran, fracking, etc.), decline in commodity prices globally, and at least ten more reasons. Maybe! But crude oil prices have crashed before and then rallied. Examine the following chart and the 4 step sequences shown. Note […]

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Gold, Silver And Crude Oil Are Bottoming

| September 1, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold, Silver And Crude Oil Are Bottoming

I’m not convinced that crude oil prices will drop much from here or remain low for many more months. Regardless of the “reasons” listed at the beginning of this article, I think higher crude oil prices are much more likely than lower prices in six months or less.

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Warnings From Exponential Markets vs Gold

Warnings From Exponential Markets vs Gold

Markets go up and down. Debt however, based on over 100 years of central bank and politician foolishness, only goes up – until a great deflationary crash that may not happen. Expect debt to increase, politicians and central banks to spend and “print” and markets to boom and bust and follow exponential trends higher. When markets get overextended in either direction, they reverse, or regress to the mean. The 64 Trillion Dollar questions are which markets and when? Look at the graphs again and ask yourself if you truly expect higher S&P prices along with lower gold prices, OR THE REVERSE.

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The Rise Of The Paper Machines

The Rise Of The Paper Machines

The powers-that-be have done a great job levitating Group One markets and suppressing Group Two markets. They have considerable resources, massive quantities of fiat currency, considerable influence over the media and government statistics, and the power of the banking cartel and “printing press” behind them. They possess the motive, means and opportunity, so there should be no surprise at their success levitating Group One markets.

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Silver Projection From Crude Oil & T-Bonds

Silver Projection From Crude Oil & T-Bonds

T-bonds made a 3 sigma move higher in March based on the monthly data through Friday March 27. The crude to T-bonds ratio hit an 11 year low. Lows for the last 20 years in that ratio have marked important lows in crude oil and also important lows in silver since 2000. Maybe this time will be different, but I doubt it. Expect crude oil and silver to rally substantially in 2015 – 2016.

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Alert: 3 Sigma Extremes in the Bond Market

Alert: 3 Sigma Extremes in the Bond Market

The March 2015 change in T-Bond prices was a (huge) 3.6 standard deviation move – slightly more rare than a golfing “hole-in-one” and slightly more likely than a “perfect” game in professional baseball. The last 3+ standard deviation move in monthly T-Bond prices occurred in November 2008, during the 2008 stock market crash. Caution is warranted. The global financial system is increasingly leveraged, risky, and appears to be a bubble approaching a “Middle-East or European pin.”

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Extremes In The Markets: Expect Consequences (Part II)

Extremes In The Markets: Expect Consequences (Part II)

Debts will increase until a “reset” occurs. Politicians will “extend and pretend” and make MANY promises. The S&P has enjoyed a large rally in the last 6 years. It will correct. Bonds are in a massive bubble, partially created by the low and negative interest rates forced upon the system by central banks. All bubbles eventually burst. Gold and silver and their stocks have been beaten down for four years. They will rally to new highs.

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Coming Boom, Bust And Bottom In Stocks, Crude Oil, Silver

| February 2, 2015 | Category: Economy
Coming Boom, Bust And Bottom In Stocks, Crude Oil, Silver

Exponentially increasing systems cannot last forever. Our problem is that the global financial system is based on exponentially increasing debt, energy usage, population, and exploitation of natural resources. This appears to work nicely, especially for the financial and political elite, in the early years of the exponential increases. However, we are approaching the inevitable end of the exponential increases – perhaps not in a few months – but our systems probably will not last another decade. In the meantime, the plan seems to be “Party On!”

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Crude Oil Collapse 2014 vs Gold Price Crash 2013: Spot The Difference

| December 27, 2014 | Category: Price
Crude Oil Collapse 2014 vs Gold Price Crash 2013: Spot The Difference

As long as we are talking about the resemblance of oil’s late-2014 price slide to that of gold back in early 2013, it is also appropriate to once again make the comparison of gold’s current price pattern to what we saw before in the SP500. I showed this previously back on June 26, 2013. Since then, gold has roughly followed the pattern laid down by the SP500, although the correlation has been imperfect. My sense is that if the Fed had not started QE to boost stock prices, we would have seen a better correlation. Still, the recent bottoming action in gold prices in 2014 matches the bottoming action of the SP500 in 2010, in the months following the May 2010 Flash Crash.

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Gold And Silver Price, Crude Oil and S&P Ending Large Wedge Patterns

| November 17, 2014 | Category: Price
Gold And Silver Price, Crude Oil and S&P Ending Large Wedge Patterns

Gold and silver look like they have bottomed – again. Perhaps this time it will be a real bottom instead of another fake-out like December 2013 and June 2014. Crude oil has crashed by about 30% in the last five months. The charts show what could be an important bottom. One would think that increasing conflicts in Iraq and the Ukraine would support oil prices. The S&P 500 Index has powered higher for 5 years with only minor corrections. The “Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen Put” has levitated the market to a very high level. It looks like a danger zone to me.

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