Tag: cot reports

COT Report Points To A Meaningful Gold And Silver Rally

| March 23, 2015 | Category: Trading
COT Report Points To A Meaningful Gold And Silver Rally

The latest Commitment of Traders Report for futures positions held at the close of trading on Tuesday March 17th 2015 is very encouraging. We can easily conclude, based on the data, that the current setup in futures positions point to a meaningful rally, at least in the short run, in both gold and silver. In other words, the selling in the ongoing cycle seems to be behind us, and a new short to mid term cycle should have started last week. To back up our thesis, we are looking at the rate of change of commercials short positions in the COT report. We have used this time and again, so far each time with success.

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Commitment of Traders Report: JP Morgan Still Short Silver Around 18,500 Contracts

| March 2, 2015 | Category: Trading
Commitment of Traders Report: JP Morgan Still Short Silver Around 18,500 Contracts

This is an excerpt from Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Daily Newsletter, with an overview of the most actual COMEX futures market positions.

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Precious Metals Monthly Bank Participation Report: February 2015

| February 8, 2015 | Category: Trading
Precious Metals Monthly Bank Participation Report: February 2015

As you can tell, with the exception of palladium, the banks of the world—especially the “3 or less” U.S. banks, have been going massively short against all comers since these latest rallies in gold, silver and platinum began at the start of 2015. Along with a couple of Wall Street investment houses, these are “da boyz’—the sellers of last resort.

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Gold: COT Report Flashes Yellow Flag

| January 29, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold: COT Report Flashes Yellow Flag

The change of the commercial shorts relative to the gold price rally of the last couple of weeks has been remarkable. Commercial shorts are at the highest level since February 2013. Their stopping power has become clear in today’s price decline. As we noted earlier today, the price of gold should hold above $1,200 to counterbalance the sell off. If gold were to fall below that level, it would not bode well for the metals in the short and intermediate term.

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Precious Metals Monthly Bank Participation Report: December 2014

Precious Metals Monthly Bank Participation Report: December 2014

Although JPMorgan, HSBC USA and Citigroup are the key U.S. bullion banks that are active in the COMEX futures market in the precious metals, it’s becoming more and more obvious that Scotiabank’s monster short positions in both gold and silver—but particularly silver—may put the bank in jeopardy at some point. That is, of course, unless they’ve got themselves covered in other markets like JPMorgan appears to have done in silver.

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Ted Butler’s Silver Price Outlook – Why This Time Could Be Different

| October 14, 2014 | Category: Price
Ted Butler’s Silver Price Outlook – Why This Time Could Be Different

What do we make out of the current futures positions in gold and silver? One thing is clear, as both Butler and Steer have reiterated, the rate of accumulation in short positions of commercial traders (read: JP Morgan) during the next rally will determine to which extent the rally will run. So far, after the silver price peak in 2011, all rallies have been capped by aggressive shorting by commercials. Is there a reason to believe this time will be different? Although hesitant, COT analyst Ted Butler believes there are reasons to believe that it could be different with the next precious metals rally.

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No Improvement Yet In The Latest Commitment of Traders Report

| September 13, 2014 | Category: Technicals
No Improvement Yet In The Latest Commitment of Traders Report

I must admit that I was more than underwhelmed by yesterday’s Commitment of Traders Report. Although the numbers were headed in the right direction in both silver and gold, they weren’t the big numbers that both Ted and I were expecting. In a word, it was disappointing, considering the fact that we carved new low ticks in both metals every day during the reporting week ending on Tuesday, June 9.

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Monthly Bank Participation Report Of Precious Metals: August 2014

Monthly Bank Participation Report Of Precious Metals: August 2014

The CFTC releases at the end of each month the futures positions in precious metals of the large banks. At the closing of July 2014 there was no big difference in gold and silver compared to the previous month. A detailed analysis was provided by Ed Steer in his latest newsletter. We want to share his analysis because Ed Steer comes to the following factual conclusion: “3 or less” U.S. banks, along with Scotiabank in silver and gold, run the price management scheme.

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Monthly Bank Participation Report Of Precious Metals: April 2014

Monthly Bank Participation Report Of Precious Metals: April 2014

The CFTC releases at the end of each month the futures positions in precious metals of the large banks. At the closing of April 2014 there was no big difference in gold and silver compared to the previous month. Palladium had a notable increase in short positions by US banks. A detailed analysis was provided by Ed Steer in his latest newsletter

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Gold Commitment Of Traders Report: 20 December 2013

| December 20, 2013 | Category: Technicals
Gold Commitment Of Traders Report: 20 December 2013

We have a source of data indicating a STEADY BUYING occurring by the large commercially-oriented players in the gold market so that their short positions are being covered even as they have moved to some LONG POSITIONS in the futures market so as to TAKE DELIVERY. All this is taking place against a backdrop of falling gold prices while the SPECULATIVE COMMUNITY, is selling.

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Is JP Morgan Ending Its Death Grip On The Gold Market?

| December 17, 2013 | Category: Investing
Is JP Morgan Ending Its Death Grip On The Gold Market?

The good news is that the question of how JPMorgan came to dominate gold and silver will be asked more frequently in the future because it has to be asked by anyone with the slightest concern for cause and effect. Then it will be a very short distance to understanding that there is no legitimate answer. This is why I believe that JPMorgan has remained mute in the face of growing allegations of wrongdoing. That’s also why I am sensitive to JPM not buying more gold over the past month because it suggests we may be near the end game where the bank, not able to justify its positions, instead looks to end its death grip on the market.

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Gold Is Not There Yet

| December 16, 2013 | Category: Trading
Gold Is Not There Yet

The following comes from Norcini’s personal blog. He concludes that “gold is not there yet” because ” the bulk of the buying done by speculators this past week was therefore not fresh new longs but rather short covering.”

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Gold & Silver COT Report: A Sentiment Shift By Speculators Is Needed

Gold & Silver COT Report: A Sentiment Shift By Speculators Is Needed

Speculators drive markets, not commercials. The fact that they are still net long overall concerns me in the sense that while bullishness towards gold is certainly on the wane, we have not yet seen a DISGUST with the metal that tends to make capitulation phases. Too many speak of capitulation in gold. How can that be when speculators remain as NET LONGS?

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Gold And Silver Approaching Critical Price Points

| December 2, 2013 | Category: Price
Gold And Silver Approaching Critical Price Points

The short term trend is confirming the longer term downtrend. The daily charts show an almost perfect trendline since November 2012. Apart from the trendline, the daily charts reveal two other important things. First, both gold and silver are about to retest their June lows. Needless to say those price points are of major importance. In case they would hold, it could turn out to be very bullish for the metals. However, if support would fail, the odds favour a break through.

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