Tag: cot analysis

Cycle Analysis Supports Both Bearish and Bullish Views On Gold and Silver

| September 16, 2014 | Category: Technicals
Cycle Analysis Supports Both Bearish and Bullish Views On Gold and Silver

As bearish as this sounds, there is a “rest of the story” in support of my view that we’re still at a major decision point for Gold. If June 2013 was the final capitulation low that ended the bear market, and I still believe that it was, it was followed by a retest in Dec 2013. Each cycle since has attracted fewer Short speculators and far less hedging…and that’s not bear market behavior. Such apathy and disinterest is often observed at – or after – bear market lows.

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Huge Buying Ongoing In Precious Metals Futures Market

Huge Buying Ongoing In Precious Metals Futures Market

The new precious metals futures long buying didn’t start until Yellen, and it was massive too with speculators growing their long-side bets on silver by 1/6th in just two weeks. This continued the strong uptrend in silver-futures spec long buying we’ve seen since last September. Speculators haven’t been this bullish, had higher total longs, since back in February 2011 way before last year’s anomaly. And that proved a wise bet.

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COT June 2014 – New Longs And Lots Of Short Covering

COT June 2014 – New Longs And Lots Of Short Covering

The accompanying charts show that, while the majority of the recent changes in the commitment of traders report have come from short covering, especially in Silver, there has also been some buying interest as well. Technically speaking, the precious metals sector still remains in a downtrend and has to overcome quite a few resistance levels before a bull market is to return.

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A Silver Short Squeeze Could Ignite A Major Rally

| January 3, 2014 | Category: Trading
A Silver Short Squeeze Could Ignite A Major Rally

Despite silver’s miserable 2013, its ages-old allure certainly wasn’t stamped out. Great latent interest in silver remains among investors and speculators alike. Ao as silver starts rallying again initially on short covering, it will ignite widespread buying from all quarters. This will feed on itself too. The more capital that returns to silver, the faster its price will rise. And the quicker it rallies, the more investors it will attract in. The gains in silver this year ought to be enormous, well over 50% as I explained a couple weeks ago. But the silver-stock gains will dwarf those.

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2013 – The Year of JPMorgan

| January 3, 2014 | Category: Investing
2013 – The Year of JPMorgan

As was the case in 2013 and every year since 2008, the next year in gold and silver will be determined by JPMorgan. But considering that JPMorgan now holds a long market corner in COMEX gold for the first time in history, it is hard to see how 2014 doesn’t shape up to be the exact opposite of 2013. Throw in JPM’s sharply reduced short position in COMEX silver and the massive quantities of physical gold and silver acquired by the bank and the start of 2014 couldn’t be more different than the set up of a year ago.

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Gold Commitment Of Traders Report: 20 December 2013

| December 20, 2013 | Category: Technicals
Gold Commitment Of Traders Report: 20 December 2013

We have a source of data indicating a STEADY BUYING occurring by the large commercially-oriented players in the gold market so that their short positions are being covered even as they have moved to some LONG POSITIONS in the futures market so as to TAKE DELIVERY. All this is taking place against a backdrop of falling gold prices while the SPECULATIVE COMMUNITY, is selling.

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Is JP Morgan Ending Its Death Grip On The Gold Market?

| December 17, 2013 | Category: Investing
Is JP Morgan Ending Its Death Grip On The Gold Market?

The good news is that the question of how JPMorgan came to dominate gold and silver will be asked more frequently in the future because it has to be asked by anyone with the slightest concern for cause and effect. Then it will be a very short distance to understanding that there is no legitimate answer. This is why I believe that JPMorgan has remained mute in the face of growing allegations of wrongdoing. That’s also why I am sensitive to JPM not buying more gold over the past month because it suggests we may be near the end game where the bank, not able to justify its positions, instead looks to end its death grip on the market.

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Gold Is Not There Yet

| December 16, 2013 | Category: Trading
Gold Is Not There Yet

The following comes from Norcini’s personal blog. He concludes that “gold is not there yet” because ” the bulk of the buying done by speculators this past week was therefore not fresh new longs but rather short covering.”

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Gold & Silver COT Report: A Sentiment Shift By Speculators Is Needed

Gold & Silver COT Report: A Sentiment Shift By Speculators Is Needed

Speculators drive markets, not commercials. The fact that they are still net long overall concerns me in the sense that while bullishness towards gold is certainly on the wane, we have not yet seen a DISGUST with the metal that tends to make capitulation phases. Too many speak of capitulation in gold. How can that be when speculators remain as NET LONGS?

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Gold-Futures Buying Returns

| November 8, 2013 | Category: Trading
Gold-Futures Buying Returns

Today per the latest CoT this 2013 deviation is back down to 116.3k contracts. Futures speculators still have to buy back the equivalent of 11.6m ozs of gold merely to mean revert to their 2009-to-2012 average levels of total longs and shorts with no overshooting. This remainder is 1.7x larger than the big chunk of shorts the traders initially covered in July and August which catapulted gold sharply higher! It is very bullish.

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Is Leverage In Gold And Repo Markets Reaching Its Limits?

Is Leverage In Gold And Repo Markets Reaching Its Limits?

Stability in both the repo and the gold markets is a pre-requisite for maintaining confidence in the financial system and keeping the credit/asset bubble inflated. The significance of these markets is not lost on governments, central banks and regulators, although the definition of “stability” in each of them is slightly different. It appears currently that both markets are quiet, but under the hood the data show a totally different picture.

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Silver – Light at the End of the Tunnel?

| July 10, 2013 | Category: Investing
Silver – Light at the End of the Tunnel?

The most common interpretation of the recent shift is that the large bank (presumably, but not directly confirmed as JP Morgan) has closed out its silver short positions (at a nice profit, no doubt), and is now positioning itself for a bullish silver reversal. This is certainly what the bank appears to be doing in the futures market, although its participation through “paper” products based on silver’s spot price, rather than on the underlying metal itself, makes it difficult to know for sure

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Why Commercials Are Long Gold – A Reasonable Explanation

| July 1, 2013 | Category: Investing
Why Commercials Are Long Gold – A Reasonable Explanation

Welcome back to the world of risk management and HEDGING for the mining industry. That is what I believe transpired this past week. Many mining companies began to re-examine their swearing off of hedging or forward selling and moved to take steps that would guarantee their survival even if it meant leaving some potential profits on the table.

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JPMorgan Now Long Gold. A Game Changer?

JPMorgan Now Long Gold. A Game Changer?

JP Morgan was able to maneuver itself to the long side of the gold market while speculators (which by nature are long during the bull market) have been pushed to the short side. Does it mean that the gold price will move up right away? No, although it could. Timing a price move is not what COT is about. But with the largest holder of gold futures contract on the long side of the market things could seem less bearish as the picture that has been painted lately.

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