Tag: cot analysis

Could Silver Test Its Lows?

| November 4, 2015 | Category: Price
Could Silver Test Its Lows?

This does not bode well for the short and medium term. We anticipate at least a test of the recent lows; even a lower low is in the cards. However, the good news is that it could become the final (washout) bottom, setting up for a huge buying opportunity!

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COT Data For Gold At Topworthy Level

| October 31, 2015 | Category: Trading
COT Data For Gold At Topworthy Level

Last week we noted that the level of commercial net short positions was high enough to get ready for a trend change. That’s a cue to be extra attentive to indications of trend change. That trend change was brought about by the FOMC’s Oct. 28 announcement, which hinted at a probable rate hike in December 2015. How did the commercials know that was the way that the ball was going to bounce? They do seem to have that talent a lot of the time, which I suppose is how they got to be the big money.

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Gold Price Outlook After Yesterday’s Rally

| September 25, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold Price Outlook After Yesterday’s Rally

Gold rallied strongly yesterday on a safe haven bid amid stock market turmoil. As the stock market was sinking lower, moving closer to its August lows, gold and silver in USD moved more than 2% higher. More interestingly, gold miners rallied more than 5% on the day. The million dollar question is where we go from here. Let’s look at two charts to get an idea of gold’s and the miners’ outlook.

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The Case for an Explosive Surprise in The Price Of Gold

| July 31, 2015 | Category: Price
The Case for an Explosive Surprise in The Price Of Gold

I’ve been bearish on gold for so long that my successively lower targets have become almost perfunctory. Lately, I’ve focused on a ‘Hidden Pivot’ target at $817, the attainment of which would presumably wash out the last of the die-hard bulls, clearing the way for a resumption of the long-term bull market. Now, however, I am obliged to consider an alternative possibility — i.e., an explosive move without the washout. Although I lack the imagination to envision such world-shaking news as might cause this to happen, I credit a relatively recent Rick’s Picks subscriber, Michael Gibbons, with jarring me awake.

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Gold Nearing A Key Pivot Point In 7 Charts

| May 10, 2015 | Category: Investing
Gold Nearing A Key Pivot Point In 7 Charts

In this article, we show gold’s developing story in 7 amazing charts. As usual, we look at gold from different angles. If anything, it becomes clear that the precious metals market is nearing a pivot point. We cannot be sure in which direction this will resolve, we can only keep on monitoring the developments in the weeks and months ahead until we see a trend. Based on our analysis, we are quite convinced that a new trend in precious metals will arise in the next few months.

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Ted Butler: Silver’s COT Report Turns Bullish

Ted Butler: Silver’s COT Report Turns Bullish

The big, but very welcomed surprise was that the silver short position in the managed money category grew by a sharp 5,441 contracts to 37,724 contracts despite the price close above the 50-day moving average into the Tuesday cutoff.

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COT Report Points To A Meaningful Gold And Silver Rally

| March 23, 2015 | Category: Trading
COT Report Points To A Meaningful Gold And Silver Rally

The latest Commitment of Traders Report for futures positions held at the close of trading on Tuesday March 17th 2015 is very encouraging. We can easily conclude, based on the data, that the current setup in futures positions point to a meaningful rally, at least in the short run, in both gold and silver. In other words, the selling in the ongoing cycle seems to be behind us, and a new short to mid term cycle should have started last week. To back up our thesis, we are looking at the rate of change of commercials short positions in the COT report. We have used this time and again, so far each time with success.

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Potential Breakdown In Gold And Silver Prices Towards Bear Market Lows

| March 11, 2015 | Category: Price
Potential Breakdown In Gold And Silver Prices Towards Bear Market Lows

Now, we are witnessing a potential breakdown in prices towards new 52 week lows and bear market lows, while majority of the hedge funds have still not been shaken out. In my humble opinion, a major bottom in Gold will still occur around $1,000 per ounce, as discussed many times. More importantly, until we see hedge funds (COT Managed Money) get towards net short positions in both Gold and Silver, we most likely won’t be near a meaningful bottom.

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Gold: COT Report Flashes Yellow Flag

| January 29, 2015 | Category: Price
Gold: COT Report Flashes Yellow Flag

The change of the commercial shorts relative to the gold price rally of the last couple of weeks has been remarkable. Commercial shorts are at the highest level since February 2013. Their stopping power has become clear in today’s price decline. As we noted earlier today, the price of gold should hold above $1,200 to counterbalance the sell off. If gold were to fall below that level, it would not bode well for the metals in the short and intermediate term.

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Ted Butler’s Comments On The Latest COT Report

| December 2, 2014 | Category: Trading
Ted Butler’s Comments On The Latest COT Report

In the Managed Money category, the traders there covered 6,776 short contracts at a huge profit. This short covering by the Managed Money traders was all rocket fuel that Ted Butler says won’t be there on the next rally, which may be underway. The ‘non-blinking’ non-technical funds in the Managed Money category blinked a bit, as they sold 1,652 contracts of their long position.

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Silver: Anomaly In Open Interest

| December 1, 2014 | Category: Trading
Silver: Anomaly In Open Interest

Open interest is roughly 175,000 contracts, which is about 875,000,000 ounces of paper silver. At market price that is about $13 Billion, or only about 15% of what the Fed created each month during QE3. It would take very little digital currency, relatively speaking, to buy all the open interest, or to crush prices via naked sales of paper contracts. Stacks of physical silver are much safer and far more “real.”

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What COT Analysis Tells About Silver’s Outlook

| November 24, 2014 | Category: Price
What COT Analysis Tells About Silver’s Outlook

The chart over the past 7 years is messy so focus on the lows in silver prices and the lows in the COT net longs as I defined above. Note the few times in the last 7 years when the net longs were less than 30,000. Each instance was followed by a bounce in the silver price, some huge and some short lived. Note also that the lows in silver prices during 2011 and 2012 were lower lows consistent with the lower lows in the net-long COT data. However, the lower lows in silver prices for 2013 – 2014 were unlike the higher lows in the net-long COT data. Important? Possibly, but it does support my view that silver just put in a major low.

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Precious Metals Monthly Bank Participation Report: October 2014

Precious Metals Monthly Bank Participation Report: October 2014

The CFTC releases at the end of each month the futures positions in precious metals of the large banks. A detailed analysis was provided by Ed Steer in his latest newsletter. We want to share his analysis because Ed Steer comes to the following factual conclusion: once again, it’s Citigroup, HSBC USA, Scotiabank, along with the ring leader JPMorgan Chase, that run the show in all four precious metals.

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COT Report Shows JP Morgan Holds Lowest Silver Short Position Since 2008

| September 28, 2014 | Category: Investing
COT Report Shows JP Morgan Holds Lowest Silver Short Position Since 2008

Based on the latest COT report, Ted Butler calculates that JPMorgan’s short position in silver is now down to about 11,500 contracts, their lowest short-side corner in the Comex futures market since taking over the silver short position of Bear Stearns in 2008. And not to be forgotten in all of this, is the equally extreme short-side corner in the Comex silver market held by Canada’s Scotiabank.

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