How To Know When Gold’s Bull Market Has Resumed?

One of the questions we often receive is “when do I know for sure that the bull market has returned”, which is, by the way, a great question.

Our answer could be a surprise for some, as it is definitely (!) not related gold coin demand, China or Hong Kong gold imports, the gold to silver ratio, the gold to stocks ratio, or anything related to all that.

To us, the ultimate confirmation comes from … gold’s 90 week moving average.

Gold’s 90 week moving average (WMA) has proven to be a very reliable indicator, as evidenced by gold’s long term price chart. Note a couple of key interesting things on the chart, in particular as the 90 WMA was breached to the upside and the downside. First, in 1999, the price of gold broke 3 times above its 90 WMA, which was a clear warning sign that the tide was turning (bear market transitioning into a bull market). Second, in 2008, with Lehman Brothers going bust, gold broke just once below its 90 WMA, and recovered very fast, indicating the bull market was still intact. However, in 2012, gold broke big time below its 90 WMA, a signal that the bear market had started.

Note as well how an attempt to break out in January of this year was stopped exactly (!) at the 90 WMA. Very precise, very striking.


We are closely watching gold’s 90 week moving average (WMA), which was broken in December 2012, and, by doing so, confirmed the start of gold’s bear market. The 90 WMA comes in at $1226.96 /oz, and it will be a critical test for the precious metals complex. At least 3 weekly closes above its 90 WMA will prove to be a confirmation of gold moving out of its bear market.

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