Gold Likely To Bottom Within One To Seven Months

In his latest newsletter update, Louis James, Senior Metals Investment Strategist at Casey Research, explains how Doug Casey usually says that it’s a big mistake to make a prediction that includes both an event and a time. Still, sometimes he does exactly that but he adds it is “for entertainment purposes only.”

Recently, Doug Casey has made such a “mistake” by predicting both an event and a time of the precious metals bottom. He said:

I think it will be clear to most investors that the precious metals correction is over and the second half of this record-smashing gold bull market is under way well before the end of 2014.

This prediction is line with the one from Krassimir Petrov. Krassimir is an Austrian School professor of economics from Bulgaria who currently lives in Thailand. The last time Louis James talked to Krassimir, he predicted the timing of the current gold bull cycle more accurately than Doug Casey.

The talk with Krassimir is a quick read with important ideas and insights. The bottom line of Krassimir’s thoughts are summarized in the following quote. Readers who would be interested to read the whole interview here can do so after subscribing at Casey’s website.

Based on cyclical analysis, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and portfolio analysis, Petrov says the bottom for gold could be in already, but most likely will be behind us within one to seven months. That’s early to mid-2014, now rapidly approaching.

Krassimir appears to be convinced that the actual Mania Phase in gold (a period of time characterized by the investing herd throwing itself head-first into the gold market, or a time when your cab driver comes with gold stock tips) is still at least six to eight years away. “While that may be somewhat disappointing to us gold investors waiting for our big rewards, it isn’t bad at all, because we’ll make plenty of money on the ramp up before the Mania Phase, just as we did in the first half of this epic bull market.”

Louis James still believes it’s impossible to predict the exact bottom of a market correction. However, given that cashed-up, high-grade exploration plays and profitable producers are already deeply discounted, now is the time to take positions as the market is still down. Besides, tax-loss selling which prevails in November and December should provide spectacular buying opportunities in the best of the best stock picks in the sector.

Buy what others are selling.

PS: Doug Casey just released his new book Right on the Money in which he shows how to apply the “buy low, sell high” formula.

Receive these articles per e-mail

Subscribe for the free weekly newsletter and receive 3 papers about physical precious metals investing