Events Impacting The Gold And Silver Price In The Week Of November 17th

In this article, we summarize the key events of the running week that could have an impact on the price of gold and silver price because of trading in COMEX futures.

Over the last week, between November 10th and 15th, both gold and silver started the week steeply lower before rallying very sharply on Friday 15th. The same scenario we described last week applies again: it seems to be a V-bottom in the making. We can’t help but believe that a huge bottom is in the making. We also believe there is a big chance that a final spike lower is in the making after which the metals start recovering from a 3-year bear market. We consider at least a 50% probability that this scenario will occur.

The last three weeks are characterized by high volatility in the metals and miners. The large rallies of the last two weeks were not driven by “logic” drivers. For instance, last Friday’s spike higher was supposedly triggered by the worse than expected U.S. retail sales figures. This does not make sense in our opinion. It is our belief that a fight between bulls and bears over sentiment is taking place, with a tendency of bulls to start gaining control. This fits the scenario of a bottom in the making amid sellers exhaustion. The unknown would be whether this would be an intermediate bottom or the final bottom before the bull market continues.

It should be noted that last week’s European inflation data came in in line with expectations. Germany’s 0.8% CPI does not suggest inflation so the inflationary argument for gold is weak in the current context.

For the week commencing November 17th, there are some key central bank announcements, coming from the U.S., Japan and the European Union. Below is a more detailed calendar of economic data in key markets, but, more importantly, formal central bank announcements. They are not necessarily driving gold and silver prices, but could cause price volatility. As evidenced by the calendar, the second half of the week could be very volatile.



Note: The primary focus of our website is to report on the different aspects of the gold market: fundamentals, economic and monetary analysis, basic technical analysis. Our view on the real price setting in the gold and silver market differs from the mainstream view. Price changes happen to coincide with events or announcements; mainstream media are used to report a relationship between both. However, we believe that the real price setting for the time being is taking place in the COMEX futures market. Market expert Ted Butler does an outstanding job analyzing the weekly evolution in the COMEX market and how it affects price setting.

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