Events Impacting Gold And Silver In The Week Of February 16th

In this article, we summarize which events in the week ahead could impact the gold price and silver price. At the bottom of the article we explain that these events are generaly no fundamental drivers, but mostly the result of trading in COMEX futures.

Over the last week, between February 6th and 13th, both gold and silver moved slightly lower especially on Wednesday. The better than expected retail sales report in the U.S. produced a sharp decline in the metals prices. In a matter of minutes, gold fell from $1238 to $1222, a decline of 1.4%. Although we prefer to remain objective in this matter, it seems quite unlikely that the U.S. retail sales are directly impacting precious metals. As per our fundamental belief, the COMEX futures market was responsible for this decline.

The precious metals are vulerable lately. That is, in our opinion, not because of economic data, but because of futures positions in the COMEX market. As we have shown two weeks ago in Gold Gets Safe Haven Bids But COMEX Has Stopping Power, commercials have accumulated short positions at an astonishing rate. The gold futures market structure has improved slightly since then, but the metals remain somehow vulerable going forward. Do not expect a trend reveral in the short run.

For the week commencing February 16th, there are quite some economic data coming out. Three central bank announcements are planned: a press conference of the Bank of Japan, the meeting minutes of the Bank of England as well as the release of the meeting minutes of the U.S. Fed meeting of two weeks ago. Some wild gyrations in markets and metals are possible on Wednesday.


Note: The primary focus of our website is to report on the different aspects of the gold market: fundamentals, economic and monetary analysis, basic technical analysis. Our view on the real price setting in the gold and silver market differs from the mainstream view. Price changes “happen to coincide” with events, and mainstream media got used to report some sort of relationship between the two. However, we believe that the real price setting is taking place in the COMEX futures market. Market expert Ted Butler does an outstanding job analyzing the weekly evolution in the COMEX market and how it affects price setting

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