Gold Investors Weekly Review – October 10th

In his weekly market review, Frank Holmes of the USFunds.com summarizes this week’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the gold market for gold investors. Gold closed the week at $1,223.09, up $31.74 per ounce (+2.66%). Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, rose 0.24%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index fell 0.90% for the week.

Gold Market Strengths

Gold futures rose this week as many anticipate the Chinese will take advantage of lower gold prices. Indeed, gold seemed to withstand recent decreases in oil prices as well as increases in the dollar, implying that many investors are taking advantage of the bargain prices. On Friday, the Bank Credit Analyst highlighted that gold prices are unlikely to break down after successfully bouncing off support at $1,200 and are poised to stage a relief rally into the end of the year.

Gold Market Weaknesses

Deutsche Bank recommended shorting gold due to the strong dollar environment.

A continuation of the prevailing socialist model in South America, Chile’s Supreme Court granted a petition by the Diaguita communities to overturn a resolution to develop the El Morro gold-copper project joint venture (JV) in Chile. This is the third time Goldcorp’s El Morro project has been suspended in three years.

 

Gold Market Opportunities

Switzerland has decided to hold a vote on the initiative, which would force the central bank to hold at least 20 percent of its assets in gold. The initiative, scheduled for a November 30 vote, would forbid the sale of any holdings and require them to be held in Switzerland. If passed, the Swiss National Bank would have to buy roughly 1,500 tonnes of gold over five years to meet the 20-percent requirement. Since 1993, the Bank has reduced its gold holdings by 1,550 tonnes, the largest liquidation by any central bank. Changing from the largest seller to a rapid buyer should create serious tailwinds for gold.

gold_central_bank_reserves_1993_2014

The initiative put forth in Switzerland is part of a larger theme relating to increased gold purchases by central banks. Global central bank reserve holdings had been declining without interruption since 1989 until the financial crisis. Since 2008, there has been a steady rise in central bank gold holdings. With the possibility of substantial purchases from the Swiss National Bank, this rise should continue.

 

Gold Market Threats

The World Gold Council is calling on India to mobilize and monetize its household savings imbedded in physical gold stocks. If the Indian government decides to use the idle gold from households and temples, it would reduce the need for future imports, which would be negative for global gold demand.

 

BMO Capital Markets, Morgan Stanley and ANZ all reinforced their negative outlook for gold prices. While this consensus is negative, such wide consensus agreement usually coincides with a reversal in the going trend.

 

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