The lower house of Switzerland’s parliament voted against adopting a plan for banks to step around the Alpine nation’s banking secrecy laws and hand information about their dealings with suspected American tax evaders to U.S. authorities in an attempt to reach a sweeping resolution.
1. The Expansion of Quantitative Easing in the Developed World. 2. Currency Wars. 3. Precious Metals On Sale.
How much physical gold do you have? How much do you want when you contemplate nearly $17,000,000,000,000 in official US government debt, another $100 – $200 Trillion in unfunded liabilities, and nothing backing that unbelievable amount of debt except the “full faith and credit” of what is clearly a government that won’t balance a budget and must resort to printing dollars to pay its bills?
The only limits on this process of money creation are the banker’s instinctive fear of making a bad loan that will lead to a loss, and the fraction of deposits held as liquidity against the possibility that depositors suddenly want their money back – hence the term “fractional reserve banking”. It is at this stage of the credit cycle that the process of money creation goes violently into reverse.
Argentina is a prime example of currency depreciation and capital controls. Casey Research reported this week how Argentines are doing everything they can to circumvent a new dollar clamp which is imposed by the Uruguayan government. They take risks traveling to Uruguay to extract US dollars from their peso-based Argentine credit cards.
In this article, John Mauldin looks in a critical way to the positive economic forecasts of mainstream economists. He points to the very low statistical probability that we will not have a recession in the US for the rest of the decade. Presumably, we all agree with that. Yet not one budget projection assumes a slowdown, let alone a recession, which would absolutely devastate any budget as far as deficits are concerned. His research shows how bad economists really are at forecasting.
On January 29, 2013 I wrote in the protected premium area: “While my assessment for the precious metals sector has deteriorated a lot the past months, my outlook now suggests the ultimate nightmare… The ‘trapdoor to hell’ is open & $500-$1,000 is not just realistic but likely… Maybe I am now one of the biggest gold bears on the planet, which is a huge caesura.“ This unprecedented warning was issued just in time, as the plunge started in February.
As the latest and greatest scandal, act of tyranny, unfolds before the United States citizenry, we have to look back and ask why. Why would the government need to collect every stroke of the keyboard, every phone call made and every website visited? If the government isn’t out of control and attempting something that’s very sinister in nature, then why would this information be necessary? What is the point of collecting all this information on each and every citizen?
We can assert the trend is down because of lower lows and lower highs. What can be seen, at this point, is a very small range, so far, following a small range in May that closed poorly. What we know for certain is that the downtrend has not yet changed, so lower prices can be expected. We may hold an opinion that gold will ultimately be considerably higher in value, but there is no confirmation that price has begun to rally.
The extreme contrarian appeal of gold stocks today is readily evident both technically and fundamentally. Gold stocks as a sector have only been this oversold one other time in their decade-plus secular bull, and that was during 2008’s crazy stock panic. When prices move too far too fast in either direction, sentiment gets unsustainably excessive. And then a mean reversion soon reverses the trend.
The point is very simple: US Silver Eagles are in very high demand, whether looking at yearly of half yearly sales figures, or comparing it with the Gold Eagle sales. The most plausible explanation for this trend is that people (retail investors) realize the dangers and severity of this crisis, and seek some form of “safety”. Silver being “poor man’s gold” is more affordable to the retail public.
Although difficult to spot trends in this uncertain and volatile climate, there is one crystal clear trend appearing. Bank bail-ins became “mainstream” in Cyprus in March of this year. The Europeans fell in love with the model right away. Only two months later the phenomenon is going global. Japan officially announced they will adopt the model when it would be required.
What is this all about anyway? Is America in such bad shape that it needs to criminalize its citizens and its supposed Swiss friends? Is complete citizen transparency and so-called “tax justice” really important enough to throw our long-time values and principles of freedom overboard?
The Casey Research Metals and Mining team has received a number of worried emails about gold’s recent rollercoaster ride. I’d like to respond to them. This predicament isn’t fun, and there are a limited number of options. However, instead of responding emotionally, let’s look at some facts and consider their implications. The bottom line is that you’ve got to hang in there and let the big-picture forces guide your gold investing.
Gold And Silver – Greater Certainty Is Found In Charts
We can assert the trend is down because of lower lows and lower highs. What can be seen, at this point, is a very small range, so far, following a small range in May that closed poorly. What we know for certain is that the downtrend has not yet changed, so lower prices can be expected. We may hold an opinion that gold will ultimately be considerably higher in value, but there is no confirmation that price has begun to rally.
JPMorgan Now Long Gold. A Game Changer?
JP Morgan was able to maneuver itself to the long side of the gold market while speculators (which by nature are long during the bull market) have been pushed to the short side. Does it mean that the gold price will move up right away? No, although it could. Timing a price move is not what COT is about. But with the largest holder of gold futures contract on the long side of the market things could seem less bearish as the picture that has been painted lately.
Time Cycle Model for Silver Price
This simple model, which uses only four cycles and an exponential increase, indicates that a low in the silver price was expected approximately February – July 2013, and that the next high is expected approximately March – October 2014 in the $50 – $60 range. Further, the model suggests that a silver price of $90 – $110 is possible in the September 2015 – March 2016 time period. Do not depend solely on a model such as this; it is one of many tools.
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Are the Gold Bugs Wrong?
Today’s ongoing economic and fiscal crises cannot end smoothly or without unpleasant consequences. Since none of the excesses that precipitated the 2008 financial crisis have been fixed, another round of crisis is baked in the cake and will likely inflict even greater damage. When that happens, gold will again be seen as the refuge it is, regardless of current popular opinion.
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