US Dollar Looks Strong

The rally in the US Dollar continues not out of any particular set of strong fundamentals in the US but rather out of a general aversion to the Euro and by consequence, to the European currencies.

While the Fed seems to be basically standing pat for the immediate moment, the Bank of England has announced another round of its bond buying program while the ECB has lowered rates. Given that backdrop and the lingering fears and uncertainty over the bailout mechanism put in place by the European finance ministers and political leaders, traders continue to bid up the Dollar. This buying is a reflection of the unease among traders over current market conditions. People are confused to say the least and when they are, moves tend to be exaggerated as liquidity is falling off with some either lightening up or simply moving to the sidelines altogether.

That being said, this buying has pushed the Dollar right smack dab to an important technical resistance level on its longer term chart. If you note, it has already bested both the 50% and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the entire decline from back in 2010 to 2011. It remains above this latter level this week. If it can push through that overhead resistance line, there does not appear to be a whole lot between it and the 2010 peak. That means it would have the potential to make a run towards the 89 level.

While that seems difficult to envision for some Dollar bears, given the pathetic condition of the US economy and it fiscal woes, one has to keep in mind that compared to the Euro, it looks good! (that is not saying much but the USDX is weighted against the “value” of other major currencies). We will have to wait and see should the Dollar indeed manage to move higher as we could normally expect to see pressure across the commodity sector in general.

I would imagine that conditions in the Eurozone would have to begin deteriorating more rapidly to see the Dollar accomplish this feat. If that were the case, traders would most assuredly work those “slowing global growth” trades once again. That would bring some further pressure on the silver market. It would also however ramp up pressure on the US Fed to move forward with their next round of bond buying, a factor which, if traders are convinced is coming, would see the grey metal shrug off that selling pressure and move higher in anticipation of the next wave of liquidation injections.

 

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