Effects of the U.S. Pulling out on the Iran Nuclear deal on Oil and Precious Metals

The Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, offered Tehran billions of dollars in sanctions relief in exchange for agreeing to stop its nuclear program. The deal laid out a lengthy process spanning over 15-25 years that would be supervised by an eight-member committee, including Iran, the United States of America, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and the European Union. The agreed-upon nuclear deal aimed at limiting Iran’s ability to produce a nuclear weapon, in exchange for the removal of various sanctions imposed on it internationally.

This agreement signed in Geneva states that the P5+1 namely China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States; plus Germany will not impose new sanctions on Iran and will remove existing sanctions on oil, precious metals, auto parts and petrochemical products. And therefore, President Donald Trump’s decision of leaving the deal will have adverse effects on the current markets as sanction will be reimposed.

Oil

Iran is one of the largest Oil exporters in the world. Before signing the deal, Iran was prohibited from exporting oil to the rest of the world, but now since the US has already pulled out on the Nuclear deal, The sanctions have been returned therefore causing oil prices to spike as approximately 500K barrels a day of Iranian oil will come off the market since Iran and the US can no longer do business together because of this decision. And with oil prices spiking, a lot of commodities will also be compelled to increase.

Gold

Gold prices also dropped after it was decided that Iran could once again export the precious metal. The decline in tension in the area reduces the risks of investing money in this region and supports global market stability. But because of the US pulling out of the deal, most experts predict an increase on the prices of Gold while others still await further information on how the Gold market will react to such a decision. But most likely Gold prices will surely rise as Iran will no longer be trading on precious metals with the US.

One factor that will likely influence Gold to increase is the rise of inflation due to the oil price hike. This will likely cause a cost-push inflation where the dollar loses value due to the fact that companies have to pay more for things (oil) so they pass those costs onto consumers, thus making products more expensive. Gold and other commodities that are priced internationally in US dollars automatically cost more because you’ll need more of the newly-devalued dollars to purchase the same amount of gold.

Silver

Historically, oil prices have moved in tandem with silver prices. A surge in oil prices will likely drive silver prices even higher in the near future. The news that the Israeli’s provided helped boost silver implied volatility slightly higher. This level of implied volatility means that traders believe prices will move 18% from the current levels over the next 12-months. So it’s a good deal for silver as its price will surely rise in the coming months after president trump’s decision of leaving the deal.

Conclusion

Gold and Silver will most likely increase as the US pulls out of the Iran nuclear deal while oil prices will also hike up as 500k barrels of oil a day will no longer be delivered to the US as a result of president trump’s decision of leaving the deal.

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