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Are Gold Traders Too Complacent?

Are Gold Traders Too Complacent?

While geopolitical events continue to create market anxiety, gold prices are unlikely to surge higher according to the options market.  In fact, gold options volatility, reflected by the CBOE’s gold implied volatility index GVZ, is nearing a 7-year low, which was last hit, in mid-March.  Current levels reflect market complacency. While it appears that gold prices are sliding sideways waiting for the next impetus to drive them higher or lower, the decline in implied volatility ahead of the French and British elections in May and June respectively reflect that gold option traders believe the status quo is the likely outcome. Just as a refresher, implied volatility is the markets estimate […]

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Investing In Gold With Spread Betting

Investing In Gold With Spread Betting

Many investors turn to gold when the world economy shows signs of weakening. Gold is an asset that preserves its value and when the price of stocks, currencies, and even real estate falls, gold still retains its financial strength. Why is Gold Becoming Attractive for Investors? Data from the U.S. economy hasn’t been positive in 2016. Companies have been hit by weak earnings reports and jobs created have fallen short of expectations in recent months. China has also shown signs of slowing its growth while it’s immersing itself in more and more debt as time goes by. The euro-zone doesn’t have a healthy outlook either. Thus, investing in gold isn’t […]

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Still Waiting for a Precious Metals “Correction”? Get Off the Dime and Buy Some Silver Ones…

Still Waiting for a Precious Metals “Correction”? Get Off the Dime and Buy Some Silver Ones…

Over time, charts for a bull market tend to print higher highs and higher lows on the way to the primary top. Two steps forward, one step back, creating a visual stair-step effect. This chart “picture” has been in evidence for gold, silver, and the miners since January. So far, waiting hasn’t been a good strategy. Yes, there were a couple of times in April, and a month later in late May where you might have been able to buy and save some money. But things can get in the way of that plan. And for a number of people I’ve talked to, things apparently did. The first obstacle is […]

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COT Data For Gold At Topworthy Level

| October 31, 2015 | Category: Trading
COT Data For Gold At Topworthy Level

Last week we noted that the level of commercial net short positions was high enough to get ready for a trend change. That’s a cue to be extra attentive to indications of trend change. That trend change was brought about by the FOMC’s Oct. 28 announcement, which hinted at a probable rate hike in December 2015. How did the commercials know that was the way that the ball was going to bounce? They do seem to have that talent a lot of the time, which I suppose is how they got to be the big money.

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Silver Hedgers Hold Largest Short Positions Since 2010

| October 28, 2015 | Category: Trading
Silver Hedgers Hold Largest Short Positions Since 2010

The latest Commitments of Traders report showed an eagerness to sell the metals, in particular gold and silver. Both are at levels that coincided with peaks in the metals over the past three years. In silver, hedges now have their largest short position since 2010. As noted last week, this is a huge test for metals and silver in particular. If it can continue to rally in the face of heavy pressure from hedgers, it will be an excellent sign that the bear market is likely over.

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Two Short-Term Plays in Gold

| September 10, 2015 | Category: Trading
Two Short-Term Plays in Gold

What would it take to turn this picture short-term bullish? Answer: a pop today or tomorrow exceeding the 1126.00 high that I’ve labeled. Whatever the case, 1094.50 can be bottom-fished with a tight stop — more aggressively if you’ve been short for the ride to it.

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Ted Butler: Turning $1 Billion into $5 Billion

| August 21, 2015 | Category: Trading
Ted Butler: Turning $1 Billion into $5 Billion

Today, I will attempt to make the case for how one might go about turning one billion dollars into five billion dollars by buying silver. At first, some of my specific points might seem to be at odds with my long held argument that fully paid for positions in the actual metal at current price levels are as close to a sure thing as it gets in the investment world. But it is still my conviction that owning unencumbered and unleveraged metal is the best way to go; what’s different about this article is that it is directed to any entity that can plunk down a cool billion dollars or more in buying silver.

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Bullish Gold Trade Off to a Perfect Start

| May 28, 2015 | Category: Trading
Bullish Gold Trade Off to a Perfect Start

The 1183.40 downside target given here yesterday allowed subscribers to get long four ticks off the intraday low. Since I received reports of actual fills in the chat room, I’m establishing a tracking position: long two contracts with a cost basis of 1180.90.

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Busted Metals Traders Distract from Larger Manipulation Problem

| May 27, 2015 | Category: Trading
Busted Metals Traders Distract from Larger Manipulation Problem

There’s been a HUGE negative price bias when Western markets have been open – particularly during the hours in which the CME has been operating. Since 1975, the bias has remained consistent regardless of the price of gold or price trends. This suggests that the CFTC has allowed tremendous collusion to suppress the price of gold during the CME’s hours of operation. Conversely, precious metals prices soar in Asia when Western markets are closed.

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Ted Butler: Silver’s COT Report Turns Bullish

Ted Butler: Silver’s COT Report Turns Bullish

The big, but very welcomed surprise was that the silver short position in the managed money category grew by a sharp 5,441 contracts to 37,724 contracts despite the price close above the 50-day moving average into the Tuesday cutoff.

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Gold Getting a Double Boost to its 1238.90 Target

| April 13, 2015 | Category: Trading
Gold Getting a Double Boost to its 1238.90 Target

Two robust, ABC uptrends of different degree are driving this rally, auguring a successful voyage to the1238.90 target we’ve been using to stay abreast of the move. It has been relatively easy to trade, since the swing highs and lows have come more or less where expected, at Hidden Pivot supports and resistances.

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Ted Butler: An Unavoidable Comparison With Silver Manipulation

Ted Butler: An Unavoidable Comparison With Silver Manipulation

A rare event occurred this past week; the CFTC charged a major food company, Kraft, Inc., with price manipulation in the wheat market. You can count on one or two hands the number of times the federal commodities regulator has charged anyone with price manipulation in its 40 year history.

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COT Report Points To A Meaningful Gold And Silver Rally

| March 23, 2015 | Category: Trading
COT Report Points To A Meaningful Gold And Silver Rally

The latest Commitment of Traders Report for futures positions held at the close of trading on Tuesday March 17th 2015 is very encouraging. We can easily conclude, based on the data, that the current setup in futures positions point to a meaningful rally, at least in the short run, in both gold and silver. In other words, the selling in the ongoing cycle seems to be behind us, and a new short to mid term cycle should have started last week. To back up our thesis, we are looking at the rate of change of commercials short positions in the COT report. We have used this time and again, so far each time with success.

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Ted Butler: More Evidence Of JP Morgan’s Manipulation Scheme In COMEX Silver

Ted Butler: More Evidence Of JP Morgan’s Manipulation Scheme In COMEX Silver

Ted Butler has written extensively about silver manipulation. He has been the first analyst in this area to explain in great detail the mechanics of silver manipulation, but also to provide hard evidence on numerous occasions. In his latest update to his premium subscribers, he explains how JP Morgan is applying manipulative tricks in the March 2015 futures contract on COMEX silver.

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