So with all due respect to those of you who see gold as just another imminent general commodity liquidation away from $850 or lower, I think that is not exactly the way it is going to play out. We may see more sell-off coming as current conditions develop; yes, I may still be a little early; but gold still represents the ultimate store of value for liquid capital.
If the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike cycles were indeed gold’s arch-nemesis, this zero-yielding sterile asset should have been hammered in the great majority of them. Instead gold actually rallied through 6 of the 11 modern Fed-rate-hike cycles! And at average gains seen within these exact rate-hike-cycle spans of a staggering +61.0%, gold did amazingly well. Gold often didn’t just weather rate hikes, but thrived in them!
Gold’s most recent advance ended last week when price failed to break through the sturdy resistance level around $1170. As a reminder, $1170 is where several technical indicators converged, including a bearish trend line, the 100-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of this year’s range. The fact that the rally has stalled at the relatively shallow 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level bodes ill for gold bugs as it suggests the bears are still clearly in the driving seat, which means that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) published its monetary policy statement, with the central bank leaving its main refinancing rate at 0.05%, its deposit rate at 0.20%. Euro gold is testing its major support at €1000 /oz. This is a make-or-break level for euro gold, with a high importance for gold in other major currencies. If euro gold will stay above €1000, the market would anticipate more monetary easing in Europe, with a positive impact on the price of gold.
Gold in U.S. dollar closed the trading session 0.5% lower today. Reuters noted today that the gold price was down “as a rebound in stocks and the dollar arrested a four-day rise, with uncertainty over the timing of a looming U.S. rate hike limiting price moves ahead of key U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday.”
The most interesting trend on the longer term gold chart is the deceleration of gold’s decline. Although the trend remains down, with a clear formation of lower lows, the decline is slowing. Also note that the lows have occurred in an orderly manner, not comparable to the aggressive declines of April and June of 2013. This indicates selling pressure is fading and that gold is bottoming.
I’m not convinced that crude oil prices will drop much from here or remain low for many more months. Regardless of the “reasons” listed at the beginning of this article, I think higher crude oil prices are much more likely than lower prices in six months or less.
Gold Spot price has rallied minimally following the break to a new low, thus far halted at the declining 200-day MA. Interestingly, one might have expected Gold to rally more forcefully in face of major U.S. index declines last week. Resistance remains above at 1,200 and 1,250 but the trends remain down even at these levels and well under the 2005 uptrend. Weekly and monthly momentum models remain negative and flat. The downside target at 1,000, the support from 2008-2009, remains in place.
The price of the yellow metal gained more than 4% last week amid a global sell-off of equities and commodities. The upward momentum in gold prices began the previous week when China devalued its currency, the yuan. And, last week the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting left market watchers unsure about an interest rate rise in the US in September, adding to uncertainty caused by China’s devaluation of the yuan. This in turn, as well as a number of other factors, including falling prices of other commodities, have led investors to turn to gold.
December Gold appears to be consolidating for a push above 1200 in the weeks ahead. Notice that although the futures gave back most of yesterday’s modest rally by day’s end, the intraday high poked slightly above an ‘external’ peak at 1169.00 recorded back in early July. This generated a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, implying that the pullback from Monday’s high is likely to produce a follow-through rally leg. Were it to equal the rally off mid-August’s 1108.50 low, the futures could trade as high as 1206.00 by month’s end or early September.
If gold bulls are able to break through the barrier at 1140, then a more substantial rally toward 1160 or 1180 is possible in the near-term. That said, the longer-term series of lower lows and lower highs would remain intact all the way up to 1200, so bulls should be cautious about getting too excited as long as the metal trades with an “11” handle.
Gold rose instantly right after the FOMC Minutes appeared, as the U.S. dollar sold off. The price of gold broke through resistance at $1,130 /oz, pushing towards its critical technical level of $1,135 /oz. Gold traders are clearly reliefed that the Fed stays focused on its 2% inflation target, and that inflation remains an important condition before rising interest rates.
Yes, economic and financial conditions probably will deteriorate, central banks will print, and gold prices will rise. The next 8 year gold cycle low is due in 2017 – it might be a short and sharp drop leading into several more years of rally toward the 8 year cycle high around 2019. However cycles may become less important as a consequence of overwhelming economic and financial stress. We shall see much higher gold prices, regardless of cycle influences.
Believe whatever hype you will about gold and silver primed for a major turnaround, and we are in the camp wanting to see higher prices, but we remain pragmatic in putting far greater belief into what the market is saying, via developing market activity, a much more reliable indicator of the character of the trend, and both trends for gold and silver are decidedly down.