The chart shows that silver has already broken out from a major 3-year declining trendline. Silver has a track record to lead the precious metals complex. Is silver’s early break signalling a trend change? Or is this simply another false breakout, as we have witnessed quite some over the last years? Given the above conditions, we believe there is a fair chance that this breakout is for real.
First, the U.S. dollar is taking quite some time consolidating. With a U.S. Fed kicking the can down the road when it comes to hiking interest rates, the market has clearly understood that the dollar cannot rally, at least not in the short to mid term. The strongly declining volume on the chart suggests interest in the dollar is waning. Second, gold is attempting to make a huge breakout, as evidenced on the following chart. The number of touchpoints on the resistance line is 5. The area between support and resistance line is minimal. If gold will succeed in breaking out, it will be THE long anticipated trend change.
For the first time since the precious metals topped in 2011, both the Silver and Gold charts are constructing possible bottom configurations. The monthly Gold chart displays the bear trend that began with the completion of a major descending triangle in April 2013. As shown on the weekly graph, the decline in Silver from the 2011 high has been one for the textbooks. The decline has complied with the principles of classical charting as well as any other market in recent years.
Gold prices will rise because of war, increasing debt to pay for those wars, and the inevitable destruction of purchasing power of fiat currencies. Because insolvent, hopelessly indebted countries owe far more than can ever be repaid in CURRENT dollars, euros, pounds and yen – and therefore central banks will “print” and devalue. Because, regardless of the story promoted by politicians and bankers, it is unlikely that interest rates can be maintained at multi-generational lows for several more decades. Because the inevitable derivative disaster will make the 2008 crisis look like a summer rain compared to the financial hurricane that approaches.
The weekly silver chart now shows an interesting wedge pattern developing. Silver prices briefly touched the bottom of the wedge last week before closing near the top. A solid weekly close above $15.50 would represent a bullish upside breakout, while a decisive break below $14.50 would carry bearish near-term implications.
As we look to the charts, they continue to support suppression prevailing over-supply and demand. The average person uses daily and intra day charts to assess what is going on. This is somewhat akin to “looking at the trees instead of the forest.” The larger time frames are the equivalent of the forest for they depict a truer picture, and smart money references them without regard to the lower time frames used by most everyone else.
Gold and gold miners benefit from falling bond yields today. Gold is a non-yielding asset. As a result, its appeal increases when bond yields fall. That’s especially true if the dollar is dropping as well (more on that shortly). Gold may also be benefiting from increased tensions in the Mideast. The daily bars on the first chart show the Gold SPDR (GLD) jumping the equivalent of $23 dollars today (+2.2%). Gold is recovering from a five-year low, and has a long way to go to reverse its major downtrend. The same is true of gold miners.
It seems that the precious metals complex is stabilizing. Given the growing disbelief in the interest rate hike, even precious metals bears are leaving the arena. Recent price action is becoming more and more constructive with Gold, Silver and Junior Gold Miners all pushing against their downtrend lines.
It is getting very exciting in the gold market! We have shown several bullish gold indicators in the last couple of weeks. Here is the thing: the number of bullish indicators keeps on growing. At these low price levels, the number of bullish indicators keeps on growing, and that points to a trend change.
Bloomberg reports today an extremely interesting insight from the options market. Based on data compiled for SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) by Bloomberg, the put-to-call ratio, or the number of bearish options trading compared with bullish ones, is at the lowest since 2012. “The open interest on puts fell to the lowest since mid-July on Sept. 21, signaling bears may be losing their stranglehold on the market.” These data show that gold bears are finally showing signs of fatigue, if options trading is any indication.
Gold rallied strongly yesterday on a safe haven bid amid stock market turmoil. As the stock market was sinking lower, moving closer to its August lows, gold and silver in USD moved more than 2% higher. More interestingly, gold miners rallied more than 5% on the day. The million dollar question is where we go from here. Let’s look at two charts to get an idea of gold’s and the miners’ outlook.
While Demand for physical gold and silver in August and September has been exceptionally strong as investors seek a safe-haven from market turmoil, the traditional months of strong demand from Asia are now ahead of us which will add even greater demand for gold in the coming weeks. In India, gold demand will reach its peak later than usual this year as Diwali falls in the second week of November.
If silver had slowly risen from under $10 in 2008 to $15 today, nobody would be excited, but the pervading negative sentiment would probably be absent. The too far, too fast rally and subsequent crash succeeded in crushing sentiment. Not coincidentally since 2011, the dollar and bonds have rallied, and the S&P reached all-time highs. Real assets down, paper assets up! There is method to this madness.
Gold prices began this week on a slightly negative note as prices drifted back towards their lowest levels since mid-August after US payrolls data failed to provide clarity on the timing of a US Federal Reserve rate hike, and as the dollar steadied against other majors. Despite concerns about the Fed tightening, gold recorded its best month this year, gaining around, gaining about 3.4% for August for its first advance since May.