David Morgan believes that the paper market will still dominate the price through 2014. Right now, there are big differentials between the retail price and commercial bar prices. As long as commercial bars will be delivered in a somehow timely manner the paper market will have some basic credibility. Once that breaks down, it will signal the tipping point.
You have to realize how crazy-anomalous 2013 has been. Melting-up stock markets breeding euphoria are very rare, only seen at the ends of major bull markets. Stock euphoria diverting capital away from all other asset classes is equally as rare. But if you’d told me how 2013 would play out in the stock markets, GLD, and gold, but said SLV would ignore the carnage, I would have thought that was utterly impossible.