Fundamentals give the reasons for taking a particular action, but they do not provide the timing. The most important piece of market information always starts with the trend. Gold is now beginning to show signs of a potential bottom. It is too soon to know for certain, at least on the monthly, [not shown], and weekly charts.
The weak prices for silver and gold during the past three years are a correction to the massive run-up in prices from October 2008 – mid 2011. During that time silver increased from a low of $8.53 to a high of nearly $50.00. Gold increased from a low under $700 to a high over $1,900. They have been correcting since then. The correction is, I expect, over.
Gold was pummelled overnight in Asia when a very large sell trade just after the market opened led to further selling throughout the session and this weakness continued in London this morning. Gold is now at its lowest level in 3 years. Somewhat positive U.S. economic data has again lifted stock markets and speculation that the Fed may decrease its QE over the next few months may be pressuring gold. However, these factors do not justify the scale of gold’s fall.
Argentina is a prime example of currency depreciation and capital controls. Casey Research reported this week how Argentines are doing everything they can to circumvent a new dollar clamp which is imposed by the Uruguayan government. They take risks traveling to Uruguay to extract US dollars from their peso-based Argentine credit cards.
Short covering, triggered by rumours of a potential US downgrade from Moody’s, are sending gold and silver prices vertical. The move higher comes after a very suspicious spike this night in which the silver price was pushed 10% lower within the first hour of Asian trading (with a bank holiday in Europe). The charts show the price action in today’s trading sessions. In our own words: folly of the highest degree, or the metals being subject to greediness of traders.
The silver price has recovered most of its losses of Asian trading. For now, we believe that the downward pressure on the metals prices has reached a point where a bounce (at least a temporary one) is imminent. Too many technical traders are in the bearish camp. Meantime, the commercials have positioned themselves increasingly long. It seems that they are ready to extend their profits on a rally, after their gigantic profits during the crash mid-April. The ferocity of a potential short covering should be the main theme at the desk of the commercials right now.
Gold and silver are in long term bull markets. One of the objects of a bull market is to arrive at the peak with very few long term participants. The “bull” wants to buck you off periodically. It usually happens. Basic human nature – fear and greed – makes it difficult to ride the bull most of the way up and exit at the proper time. Fortunately for gold and silver bulls, there are many more years of deficit spending and increasing debt that will push metals prices much higher.
At the time of writing, it is midnight GMT (London) / 7 PM EST (New York) / 8 AM in Tokyo. The Asian market opened less than an hour ago. Large parts of Europe have a bank holiday today. So that means very thin trading. What happens? Really seconds after opening of Asian trading silver falls down from $22.3 to $20.8 in a matter of minutes.
As there is no significant yield elsewhere, equities and US dollar could have a long way to go before they correct. Hence, gold and silver could see a long way down, before they reverse. Gold and silver investors should think about the reasons why they are holding the metal. If it is for monetary protection, then they should be able to ignore short to mid-term price action, even if the price will go lower. There are too many contradictory signals out there right now. Participants in the ongoing uptrend should be careful.
If you choose to stay in the banking system, expect to take losses on anything held in a bank. Read that sentence as many times as it takes to have it sink in. What have the bankers been hell-bent on destroying and discrediting? Gold and silver.
The good news is that with the culmination of this Daily Cycle we should be starting a new Investor and Yearly Cycle and it should be good for at least a $200-$300 move. Even if the bear market still has a hold on gold, we should expect violent counter-trend rallies. We know there is no way of knowing whether this will end up being the start of a major new bull trend. But in the least, this is shaping up to be a powerful and bullish setup.
We are in the merry month of ‘sell in May and go away’ so we could experience a sell-off in the general stock market which in turn would take the mining stocks lower. We also need to be aware that the summer doldrums are upon us and gold tends drift lower until August.
Notably gold and silver are behaving in a very counterintuitive way. Somehow it is not surprising as there are opposing forces in the markets out there. On the one hand, gold and silver are under pressure because of declining commodity prices, a rising stock market, and a relatively strengthening US dollar. On the other hand, easy monetary policies should support precious metals.
Unfortunately, there is not, that I can see, a simple pattern that predicts the next low in the price of silver. Markets seldom make it that easy. However, there are patterns that provide valuable information to help illuminate the “big picture” perspective of where the current price of silver lies in the up-down-up-down cycle of prices.