RSSCategory: Articles: Gold Silver Prices

Gold Probing the $1550 Level

Gold Probing the $1550 Level

Gold has continued to see further selling in today’s session with traders once again exiting “RISK” trades in favor of the “Growth Off” or RISK AVERSION trades. Long commodity positions, along with long equities, are getting liquidated with money flows heading towards US Treasuries in general. This can be seen in the CCI, the Continuous Commodity Index, which is moving lower while bonds move higher, taking interest rates down even further as the yield on the Ten Year is now down below the 1.80% level. Remember, there has not been a week yet during which this yield ENDED BELOW that critical level. Gold’s move down towards $1550 has in the […]

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Target reached on the gold price

Target reached on the gold price

The “Measured Rule” target of the “Symmetrical Triangle” has been reached for $7,000 per contract (See daily chart right hand side below). Measured rule takes the distance from the first reaction in the triangle and adds it onto the breakdown point for an initial profit taking target. This seems to be about the distance it takes for traders on the wrong side of the “Open Interest” to unwind their large losing positions that were built up within the pricing pattern AND for the winning short traders to continue piling it on in going for the “jugular” before the profits get taken and the losers get cleaned out. The market at times seems to return back into […]

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Gold Miners, Junior Gold Miners & the Metals and Mining ETF’s

Gold Miners, Junior Gold Miners & the Metals and Mining ETF’s

Since I posted earlier today some commentary on global “Exchange Traded Funds”, I thought it would also be a good time to share analysis on the Gold Miners ETF.  I often get asked questions on mining stocks since I frequently post on the precious metals futures.  This prior blog post of mine on the gold miners ETF is definitely worth a review here. In that post I discussed in detail the current pattern that was developing in GDX “prior” to the breakdown.  What I mentioned then was that GDX formed a “Broadening Top” formation, and in my experience a broadening top could be either a continuation or a reversal pattern.  However, the breakout was likely to be a strong signal. There is no reason from […]

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Silver Chart and Comments of 11 March 2012

Silver Chart and Comments of 11 March 2012

Silver continues to be the poor poster child for the Deflation or Risk Aversion Trade. It’s chart is abysmal at this point as it has steadily retreated since peaking near $50 in what seems a lifetime ago. About the only positive thing that can be said about it is that is had not been below the $26 level for some time now. That level still seems to be bringing in buyers. Unless something changes rather drastically over the next week, it looks like it is going to once again test the resolve of those buyers that have been busy down there. If it holds, fine; if not, it would get […]

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Gold bugs will be vindicated

In recent weeks, while the eurozone has suffered escalating levels of systemic stress in government bond markets and its banking system, the gold price has fallen under $1,600. One would have thought that – but for the occasional fat-finger trade – gold would rise in all this instability, not fall. Putting aside short-term considerations, the simple reason has to be that the investment establishment, which has bought into the bond market bubble, does not believe that gold is any longer an alternative to paper money. We can understand why they think this. Though the Keynesian vs Austrian economic debate is attracting increasing attention, financial services companies recruit economists who have been trained in the […]

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What are the gold price and fundamentals telling us this week?

We had a choppy week in the gold price and silver price. The gold price closed the week at $ 1579 and € 1222. That’s a decline of some 3.5% compared to one week ago. The silver price ended the week under 30 US dollar for the first time since the beginning of 2012, closing at $ 28.89 and € 22.36. That’s some 6% lower than a week earlier. Mainly in the first half of the week, we saw a substantial decrease of  the gold and silver prices; the gold shares have been hit even harder. Let’s try to find a reasonable explanation for this decline. Given the price action, one […]

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Target 1 reached on silver and update on gold

Target 1 reached on silver and update on gold

The initial profit taking target of the “Descending Triangle” pattern of the daily chart (right hand side below) on silver has been reached.  The “Head and Shoulders” pattern on the daily chart is still in play. Getting stopped out in noise or randomness for trailing a stop for no other reason but to protect a gain would have been brutal.  The profit from a swing trade in the descending triangle was good for approximately $11,500 per contract.  I discussed  “Trade Management” in the last post on silver here:http://scottpluschau.blogspot.com/2012/05/trade-management-in-silver.html I don’t take pride in pointing out patterns “after the fact”.  Anyone can do that.  I do it because these patterns have a history of repeating themselves and I believe […]

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Gold Price Forecast: Premium Gold Update

Gold Price Forecast: Premium Gold Update

Here are a few patterns that might explain the current fall in the gold price, as well as, provide the possible way forward. Below is a graphic (all charts are from fxstreet.com) which compares the current pattern on gold (about July 2011 to current) to a 2007 pattern: On both charts, I have suggested how the patterns might be similar, by marking similar points, from 1 to 6. Based on this comparison, it appears that the gold price is searching for that point 6. The bullish expectation is still very much justified. We would need a turnaround very soon though, to continue the mega bullish expectation. If we do not […]

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The Influence of the General Stock Market and Crude Oil on Gold

The Influence of the General Stock Market and Crude Oil on Gold

We’re getting whiplash from all the political changes in Europe, neo-Nazis in an unstable government in Greece and a changing of the guard in France– “adieu” to Nicolas Sarkozy. We see plenty of reasons for holding on to our long-term gold positions despite the clobbering the yellow metal got on Wednesday down to a four-month low. The euro tumbled this week against the dollar in the worst run since 2008. There is an intense resurgence of political risk in Europe and a couple of months of weak jobs numbers in the U.S. All that has put stimulus back on the table. Another item on the table is the risk of […]

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Demand to Buy Gold Needs Worse Crisis as Price Steadies, Helicopter Cash Drop Urged

Prices to Buy Gold and silver held onto yesterday’s rally in London trade Thursday morning, nudging back above $1590 and $29 per ounce respectively on what dealers called “noticeably lower [trading] volumes.” “Technically, many [precious metals] are now oversold,” says Edward Meir for Intl FC Stone, pointing to chart analysis and noting that Gold Trading volume on the Globex futures platform was on both Tuesday and Wednesday 40% above the last month’s average. “The [price] drop was large and quick, so it’s not surprising to see some buying at these levels,” Bloomberg quotes analyst Xiang Nan at CITICS Futures Co., part of China’s largest brokerage group. “But the Dollar looks to be strong in the […]

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Austerity drive causing new Euro rifts

The market sell-off continued yesterday, with European political uncertainty continuing to dominate headlines. Spain has nationalised the crippled lender Bankia, while Greece is moving closer to fresh elections, as politicians in Athens fail to agree on the formation of a new coalition government. German European Central Bank member Joerg Asmussen has stated bluntly that “Greece must know that there is no alternative to the agreed to restructuring arrangement, if it wants to stay a member of the eurozone”, but the Greek people want it both ways: on the one hand they are strongly in favour of staying in the eurozone, but at the same time, bitterly opposed to Brussels’ austerity drive. Germany […]

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Bearish Gold Bullion Opens Up $1522 as Markets Ponder Contagion Effects of Greek Uncertainty

Dollar Gold Bullion prices dropped to a four month low of $1581 per ounce in Wednesday morning’s London trading – 3.7% down on the week so far – while stocks and commodities also fell and US Treasuries gained, with Greek uncertainty continuing to cast a shadow over markets. A day earlier, gold fell below $1600 for the first time since early January. “Gold seemed to know only one direction today – down,” says Tuesday’s note from Swiss precious metals group MKS. “The bearish close opens up a full retracement to the December low of $1522,” adds the latest technical analysis from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta. Silver Bullion fell to $28.69 per ounce – also a four-month […]

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Market sell-off testing gold bulls

Another tough day for precious metals yesterday, with gold, silver, platinum and palladium hit hard by hedge funds’ flight from equities and commodities. Concerns that Greece is on the verge of being forced out of the euro – combined with a surge in 10-year Spanish bonds back above the 6% “danger” mark – continues to drive traders into the “warm” embrace of US Treasuries. The front-month Comex gold contract settled at $1,604 – its lowest settlement for four months – with a further decline into the $1,580s during Asian trading this morning. The price seems to have stabilised somewhat over the last few hours, and there are surely enough willing […]

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Will A Euro Breakup Boost Gold and Silver Prices?

Greek Politicians are struggling to form a new government.   Concerns are increasing that Greece will drop out of the Euro. Last week we spoke about the upcoming election in France where we saw a changing of the regime over the weekend.  France’s new socialist leader Hollande is much more supportive of the European Central Bank intervening to boost the european economy by taxing the rich and industry.  This is at odds with Angela Merkel who faces a possible ousting herself as it is clear that austerity is not popular. At one point there was a strong partnership between France and Germany but voters are choosing socialist means of taxing the […]

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