RSSCategory: Articles: Insights

The real cost of not owning gold

The real cost of not owning gold

Bloomberg recently published an illustrative slideshow titled “The Real Cost of Owning Gold”. As usual when dealing with precious metals, in an attitude that is widespread among the mainstream financial press, the tone is dismissive, disdainful and almost mocking of those that advocate ownership of hard assets – and especially gold. The reasons for this hostility are fairly obvious. First, ignorance: precious metals have been out of fashion for over 30 years, and financial analysts (average age 35) know little about them. Most would have came of age, professionally and intellectually speaking, during the early part of the last decade – at a time when gold investors were the crazy-old uncles of […]

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Is the Table Set for a Mania in Precious Metals?

Is the Table Set for a Mania in Precious Metals?

By Jeff Clark, Casey Research It may feel like I’m out of touch with the precious metals markets to broach the subject of a mania today, but I think the table is being set now for a huge move into gold and silver. There are, however, very valid reasons to reasonably expect a mania in our sector. For one thing, manias have occurred many times before, but the main issue is that a mania in gold and gold stocks is the likely result of the absolute balloon in government debt, deficit spending, and money printing. Saying all that profligacy will go away without inflationary consequences seems naïve or foolish. Inflation […]

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Intermarket Analysis Applied to Gold, Gold Stocks and Bonds

Intermarket Analysis Applied to Gold, Gold Stocks and Bonds

Longtime readers know that we are a huge fan of intermarket analysis which is a rather new field within technical analysis. I believe John Murphy developed this field, thanks to his book. Intermarket analysis is the analysis of the relationships between the major asset classes: stocks, bonds and commodities. Furthermore, evaluating and comparing the different sectors within those asset classes also counts as intermarket analysis. Essentially, it is comparing one market to another. Intermarket analysis is essential when analyzing the precious metals complex because it is always affected by or has some relationship to other markets. For example, strength in government bonds or strength in the US dollar is usually a […]

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Myths and Realities of Returning to a Gold Standard

Myths and Realities of Returning to a Gold Standard

By Terry Coxon, Casey Research The gold standard, under which any holder of paper dollars could redeem them for gold at the US Treasury, is now within the living memory of just a few million Americans, nearly all of whom would be dangerous behind the wheel. But thanks to the money printing and the federal deficits that have grown to astounding scales since 2008, and thanks also to the clashing pronouncements of Ron Paul and Ben Bernanke, the idea of a gold standard has resurfaced in the public’s consciousness. I’m happy to see the concept enjoying a revival. Reading about it in the mainstream press and hearing it mentioned on […]

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Gold reserves as collateral

| May 31, 2012 | Articles: Insights

Yesterday’s big news as far as gold was concerned was a Telegraph report stating that Germany could be about to get into the “cash for gold” business in a big way. Angela Merkel is said to be increasingly favourable to the idea of countries pooling a portion of their sovereign debt into a redemption fund, with the eurozone then taking on a collective obligation to honour this debt. Member states would be obliged to pledge gold and currency reserves as collateral in case they are unable to make good on their obligations. This so-called “European Redemption Pact” gets around German courts’ constitutional objections to “Eurobonds”. It would also allow PIIGS governments to […]

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Gold’s Contrarian Moment

Gold’s Contrarian Moment

By David Galland, Casey Research Glancing at the news most days, it’s hard not to feel like Bill Murray’s character in Groundhog Day. In the event you are unfamiliar with the movie, in it Murray’s character becomes trapped in the same day… day after day. In the current circular condition, we have the powers-that-be assuring us that the next high-level meeting will finally produce a permanent fix to the broken economy, essentially solving the sovereign debt crisis. Then, in no more than a few days, or at most a couple of weeks, the fix is revealed to be flawed and the crisis again sparks into flames… followed shortly thereafter by […]

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Paper gold pitfalls

| May 29, 2012 | Articles: Insights

Last year’s disastrous collapse of MF Global has impacted financial markets around the world in many ways. Given that it was one of the largest brokers of leveraged products, it is no surprise that this area has felt the full force of MF Global’s collapse. For example, futures trading volume on US exchanges has dropped noticeably, mainly for two reasons. First, MF Global customers who are still waiting for their money to be returned are not trading. Second, customers of other brokers have understandably become worried about the safety of their money and withdrawn funds from those firms, which has reduced their capacity to trade. Gold has not been spared […]

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Currency collapse dynamics

| May 20, 2012 | Articles: Insights

The reason we accept paper money as a store of value is habit. This habit has its origins in history, when banks took our gold as deposit and issued paper receipts for it. The gold has gone, but the paper with its habitual value remains, and we accept it without question. The only backing is a vague government promise. There is no sound theoretical basis for why unbacked government-issued money should retain a store of value: it depends for its value on a market-based acceptance of financial credibility. So it follows that if a government loses all financial credibility in markets, its paper becomes worthless. This is confirmed by experience […]

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The truth about gold : it can not lie

The past years have characterized the financial markets as volatile, leveraged but also intransparent. Complex financial instruments have flooded the markets. At the same time, the impression we get from governments is they are doing their utter best to “hide” some facts, surely if it comes to economic related matters. This is our perception, as observers of markets. Let’s review some recent examples where service providers or governements mastered intransparency but where they failed to hide the truth. First and most recent, JP Morgan announced initially 2 billion losses on some “trades”. Only a week after their first announcement, it appears their loss increased already to 5 billion. Well, that’s more than their […]

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Precious Metals Market Manipulation?

By Doug Casey, Casey Research For many years now, a meme has been floating around that the prices of gold and silver are being manipulated, which is to say suppressed, by various powers of darkness. This is not an unreasonable assertion. After all, the last thing the monetary powers-that-be want is to see is the price of gold skyrocketing. That would serve as an alarm bell, possibly panicking people all over the world, telling them to get out of the dollar. It’s assumed, by those who believe in the theory, that the US Treasury is behind the suppression scheme, in complicity with a half-dozen or so large bullion banks that […]

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The All-Important Question

By David Galland, Casey Research For pretty much everyone, no matter where they are located in the economic strata, few if any questions are more germane to making plans for the future than whether the US and other major global economies are in recovery. Getting the answer to that question right is of special importance to investors and businesses. Stating the obvious, if the broader economy really is in recovery, then investors would be well served by investing in the equities of solid companies positioned to take advantage. Similarly, those very same solid companies would be rewarded by increasing their productive capacity through investments in the plants and people necessary […]

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Gold Investment Demand in Asia

| May 14, 2012 | Articles: Insights

Contrary to many Western views, emerging-world demand for gold ‘jewelry’ sits on the border of decoration and investment, writes Julian Phillips at the GoldForecaster. We prefer to look at it as Gold Investment demand, and to relegate Western jewelry demand – the source of the confusion – to one that is reactive to the state of the developed world’s economic states. Emerging world demand in these nations where economic growth is such a powerhouse that it is enriching their entire societies. Consequently, the number of middle class members in those societies has rocketed. Eventually the middle class of China’s population of 1.3 billion people will reach 400 million or so. This equals the population […]

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How does a Gold Bull Climax look like

How does a Gold Bull Climax look like

Gold has had a rough time lately, grinding relentlessly lower. Such technical weakness has naturally spawned increasingly bearish psychology. This has led to a fringe view growing in popularity that gold’s mighty secular bull has already given up its ghost. If these new-bear arguments are correct, gold’s secular bull had to peak last August. But was that latest topping gold-bull-climax worthy? Not even close. As the word describes, “secular” bull markets last a long time. In the stock markets, secular bulls and bears tend to run for an incredible 17 years each! Gold’s latest bull was born way back in April 2001, over a decade before its alleged climax in […]

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The Great Crash of 2012?

| May 12, 2012 | Articles: Insights

Deflation fears are once again becoming the dominant emotion in the minds of traders, with banking difficulties on both sides of the Atlantic and continuing weakness in precious metals and commodities. News that the China Investment Corporation – China’s biggest sovereign wealth fund – no longer wants to buy European sovereign debt has only added to the sense of unease. The euro continued losing ground against the dollar yesterday, and though it has rallied this morning, looks like it could test the $1.29 mark sooner rather than later. Corn, copper and Brent crude also sustained further losses, with news of a boost in OPEC production adding to the downward pressure […]

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