RSSCategory: Articles: Experts Talk

Central Planners Freaking Out about Discussion of Gold’s Role

Central Planners Freaking Out about Discussion of Gold’s Role

Growing Support for Sound Money Rankles Fed Apologists Sound money issues make for good politics these days. The leading Republican candidates have all suggested reforms to our monetary system. The topic is popping up in debates as well as interviews. Predictably, Fed worshippers and proponents of central planning everywhere are snickering and trotting out the usual responses. Michael Hiltzik, with the Los Angeles Times, recently published a column titled “The Worst Idea in the Presidential Debate: a Return to the Gold Standard.” He thinks “a return to the gold-standard would be so not right that it’s not even wrong.” It’s another way of saying the idea is so bad it […]

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A Short History of Paper Money

A Short History of Paper Money

It fails! $ $ $ Suppose you had a printing press in your basement along with a supply of perfect paper. You could slip down to your basement and print a batch of perfect $100 notes or 500 euro notes, but only in an emergency. I predict that you would find many emergencies. Suppose the government or central bank had access to that printing press (they do) and suppose they printed (and borrowed) ONLY in circumstances of economic need, political promises, war, necessary deficits, Presidential junkets, Wall Street bailouts, economic stimulus, vote buying, “emergencies,” and “special circumstances.” Sound familiar? What could go wrong? And that is the problem with central […]

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Silver & Gold Stocks Dangerously Close to Breakdown

Silver & Gold Stocks Dangerously Close to Breakdown

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT The fledgling rebound in the precious metals complex suddenly reversed course. Since the intraday peak last Thursday, gold stocks (GDX and GDXJ) declined about 13% while Gold lost $1100/oz and today (Thursday) $1080/oz. Silver, which did not mount much of a rebound to begin with remains mired below $13/oz. Gold is showing increasing relative strength (as we noted last week) and that is a good thing. However, the poor performance from Silver and sudden sharp reversal in the gold miners signals that the sector is on the cusp of making new lows. Let me start with Silver, a market I have not covered in recent missives. The […]

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Strange and Crazy in the Financial World!

Strange and Crazy in the Financial World!

It’s been crazy so long it feels like normal … Several $ Trillion in global debt “pays” negative interest. Loan your capital to an essentially bankrupt government and lose a portion of that capital every year! Strange and crazy! The US government runs deficits – every year – in the $500 Billion to $1 Trillion range. These are the official deficits, not what GAAP accounting would calculate. So what? Just print and borrow more. Strange and crazy! The Fort Knox Bullion Depository is so important that almost no one is allowed inside, even the President. It is so important that the gold has not been (truly) audited during the past […]

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How Precious Metals Investors Can Trump the Establishment

How Precious Metals Investors Can Trump the Establishment

As the presidential primaries quickly approach, the establishment is in panic mode over the prospect of losing control. It’s not just about Donald Trump. The political class, the “mainstream” media, Wall Street, and the central banking cartel are all losing credibility in the eyes of the public. 2016 is shaping up as the year of “We’re not gonna take it anymore” – in more ways than one. It’s an encouraging development for precious metals investors and sound money advocates. Rank-and-file Republican voters are in open rebellion against their own party. They forced John Boehner out of his Speakership last fall. Now the GOP’s voter base is refusing to line up […]

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Gold Deficits and T-Bond Fantasies

Gold Deficits and T-Bond Fantasies

Fantasy #1: My name is John Q. Public. I live a good life, make lots of money (never mind how) and have debts such as a mortgage on a great house – $375,000, a Cessna – $150,000 (my air force), and a sweet little two mast sailing ship – $78,000 (my navy). Also my wife and children (my army) spend a lot of money. My total credit card debt is $97,000. But this was a bad month for revenue collections and there was only one thing to do. I called the customer service agent at my bank – the 3rd State Bank of Chicago, and asked for a credit limit […]

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A Path to Making Gold and Silver the Currency of the 21st Century

A Path to Making Gold and Silver the Currency of the 21st Century

Several Republican presidential candidates are floating the idea of returning to some form of a gold standard in the U.S., although none have gone into any great detail. So, how might a modern gold standard work? It’s a question that requires us to do more than just look to the past with an eye toward “restoring,” “bringing back,” or “returning to” gold-backed money. Sound money advocates need to also think creatively about how to adapt hard money principles to the current and future needs of a dynamic and digital-based economy. Don’t get me wrong, the long history of gold and silver being used as money going back to ancient times […]

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My New Year’s Resolution: Don’t Confuse Debt with Wealth

My New Year’s Resolution: Don’t Confuse Debt with Wealth

If you don’t have a magical crystal ball to see the future, then a good history book will do the job. Understanding the past offers a full color panorama to the dangers and opportunities facing you in 2016. Unpayable debt is becoming the Big Story of the 21st Century across the globe. Life-altering disruptions will be the norm, with little that mankind has not seen before. In early November, Congress recklessly increased American spending and debt by another $1.14 trillion. Lawmakers long ago erased all limits to printing money and creating debt backed by nothing. The total world debt is unknown and uncountable. Pick any figure in the hundreds of […]

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Gold in 2016

Gold in 2016

We all know that gold prices in US dollars have been in a downtrend for about 4.5 years. We all know that gold prices rise, on average, as the underlying currency declines in value. Gold in the US was priced under $21 per ounce when the Federal Reserve was established. Since then the dollar has been devalued and gold has increased in price by a factor of about 50. It is the same story around the world, whether you evaluate in terms of British pounds, euros, rubles, yen, or any other debt based fiat paper currency. So what are gold prices today and what will they be in the next […]

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Betting on Deflation May Be a Huge Mistake. Here’s Why…

Betting on Deflation May Be a Huge Mistake. Here’s Why…

Precious metals investors heading into 2016 worry the dollar will continue marching ahead, right over the top of gold and silver prices. The Fed is telegraphing additional rate hikes throughout the year, and commodity prices – led by crude oil – are falling. There have been tremors in the biggest beneficiary markets of all when it comes to the Fed’s QE largesse – U.S. equities and real estate. And the possibility of a recession is growing, both in the U.S. and around the world. There are plenty of reasons we might see even lower official inflation numbers and a stronger dollar in 2016. But don’t think for a second that […]

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Silver, Silliness, Gold, and Risk

Silver, Silliness, Gold, and Risk

The movie “The Big Short” features Michael Burry. His statement from Zerohedge: “It seems the world is headed toward negative real interest rates on a global scale. This is toxic. Interest rates are used to price risk, and so in the current environment, the risk pricing mechanism is broken.” Repeat: “THE RISK PRICING MECHANISM IS BROKEN.” What risks could be mispriced? A few come to mind. The world is saturated in debt – over $200 Trillion. Does anyone expect that debt to be repaid? What are the risks when over $200 Trillion in debt can be counted as an asset ONLY if that massive and increasing debt can be rolled […]

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NEW: Money Metals Issues 2016 Gold/Silver Forecast

NEW: Money Metals Issues 2016 Gold/Silver Forecast

NEW: Money Metals Issues 2016 Gold/Silver Forecast Looking Ahead to 2016 Forecasting today’s volatile, high-frequency machine driven and manipulated futures markets using fundamental analysis is futile, as a great many precious metals bulls will attest. To complicate matters, an obsession with Fed policy dominates all markets. Officials at the Federal Reserve are often less than forthcoming and are just as bumbling as the Soviet bureaucrats when it comes to centrally planning our economy. Nevertheless, beneath all of the artificial influences and all of the leveraged paper, the gears of the physical market for gold and silver still turn. We can be sure prices will reflect actual supply and demand for physical metals at […]

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Silver and S&P Similarities – Tops and Bottoms

Silver and S&P Similarities – Tops and Bottoms

Examine the 30 year log scale chart of the S&P 500. What I see:   Tops occurred about every seven years. Tops were usually rounded, followed by intense drops. Tops were approximately Aug. 1987, Jan. 1994, March 2000, Oct. 2007, and May 2015. Once the S&P broke below the red up-trending support lines in 2000, 2007, and (probably) in 2015, the rally was over and large corrections occurred. The next large move in the S&P looks like it should be, based on history, a substantial correction to the 600 – 1,400 range. Other Considerations: Federal Reserve easy money has helped create the last six years of S&P rally. The Fed […]

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Silver Rides a Runaway Expense Train

Silver Rides a Runaway Expense Train

The US government will spend nearly $4 Trillion this fiscal year – starting last October 1. Of course it projects a massive deficit, increasing national debt, uses “funny” accounting, and does not address unfunded liabilities. Business as usual… Examine the last 100 years of US government expenditures and national debt – on a log scale in $ millions. Note that official government expenses have increased from about $750 million to about $4 Trillion, an increase by a factor of over 5,000. National Debt (official – not including unfunded liabilities) has increased from about $3 billion to nearly $19 Trillion in 100 years, an increase by a factor of about 6,000. […]

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