Jakobsen argues that in the current economic environment that what a metals trader needs to focus on is deflation. When deflation bottoms out, which is something likely to happen during Q1 of 2015, it will be the biggest buy signal for metals. Jakobsen’s base scenario is that Q1 and Q2 will become the worst part of the business cycle with the lowest inflation expectation, the lowest growth, the lowest ability to do anything and increasing volatility at the same time. But he believes that as this low energy, as these low interest rates and as the terms of trade for Europe improve, we will see a better second half than we’ll see a first half.
Given the data points discussed in this article, it is fair to say that Japan is on track for a devastating bust at some point in the future. The unknown factor is timing. When the inevitable will take place is anyone’s guess. The fate of countries like Japan is really in the hands of central bankers. However, central planners are not able to manipulate markets infinitely. At a certain point, something has to give. That is when the markets will give up and disbelief will replace trust. Readers should remember that in such a bust scenario, people flee down the Golden Pyramid of asset classes to their safe haven, being gold.
When growth slows in capital markets, the bankers’ daisy-chain of credit and debt breaks down; setting in motion defaulting debt which ends in recession, deflation or, in extreme cases, a deflationary depression. A deflationary depression is a fatal monetary phenomena where the velocity of money—circulating credit and debt—falls so low capital markets are no longer self-sustaining. This happens after the collapse of massive speculative bubbles such as the collapse of the 1929 US stock market bubble which resulted in the world’s first deflationary depression, the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Under today’s paper monetary system, debts and other financial obligations are never extinguished. They are merely passed from one person to another and eventually become an obligation of the government or its central bank. In the U.S. all debts become obligations of the U.S. government as federal reserve notes are by law obligations of the U.S. government. Since the Bank of England is a department of the British government, its bank notes are obligations of the British government. Nevertheless, these debts will eventually be extinguished.
The official US National Debt is about $18,000,000,000,000, or 57 times the current market price of the US gold SUPPOSEDLY stored at Fort Knox, the NY Fed, and elsewhere. With so much paper in the system it is easy to see why the Fed publicly denigrates gold. In the single year from Sept. 30, 2013 to Sept. 30, 2014, the US official national debt increased by over three times the value of all the gold that the US supposedly owns. The total debt and the increase in that debt is clearly “a problem.”
If some of the strongest known fundamental demand for gold and silver has had no effect on price, the question has to be, why not? The simple and only answer is the elite’s protecting its Ponzi fiat scheme, for they can never allow gold and silver to be considered as an alternative to their fiat paper issue. All they can do is what they have been doing for over 100 years, manipulate gold and silver, crushing them as viable alternatives to the “dollar” [more accurately, Federal Reserve Note], and the Euro dollar.
Ron Paul says in an interview with Global Gold: If people don’t trust us or our money anymore, we will have to tighten our belts. Once the trust is lost, the more money you print, the less the trust is going to be. Right now, they have no other place to go. They could go and beg Europe to print Euros, but they trust the dollar more. As long as they keep doing that, these insane policies will continue. I think that governments need to fold, they need to be blamed for what they are doing. Central banks need to be able to defend hard asset money, gold and silver, because it works. And yet, right now, there’s just a few of us who believe that, but I think the day will come where people will realize the truth. We have been through similar situations before.
The damage being done to the world economy has no precedent. The extent to which the world is being manipulated has no precedent. The degree of endless “wars” engaged in and provoked by the United States in has no precedent. The amount of worthless “currency” being used by the moneychangers to fleece the world of its wealth does have a precedent in the Rothschild formula, but the degree to which it has been utilized has no precedent. One day, and it is a certainty, the value of gold and silver will double, triple, or some unknown multiple of current suppressed values, and those who have been bemoaning the current prices will be equally rewarded as those who have kept the faith and knew that it was just a matter of time.
It’s hard to argue that high debt levels are deflationary. And with the current expansion based largely on debt, we can’t expect sustainably higher economic activity to be generated. So what happens if deflation wins? Even if we eventually get inflation, what happens to our gold investments if we first go through a deflationary bust?
This microdocumentary video examines in detail 4 major booms in the last 100 years and explains how monetary policy and interest rate manipulation has led to the inevitable bust.
Wars will continue but may not be decisively won or lost. Debt and currency in circulation will rise exponentially. Consumer prices will continue increasing.
Gold, silver, crude oil, gasoline and food will become much more expensive. Voters will continue voting for politicians and wars even though both cause prices to rise. The number of Americans on food stamps (SNAP) will continue rising. Unemployment statistics will fall in election years but the actual number of Americans working full-time jobs will decline.
The gold vs S&P500 ratio at the gold peak in 1980 was about 8. The ratio was trending downward from 1980 to about 2001. Subsequent to the stock market crash of 2000, 9-11, and the massive increase in spending and debt, the ratio now trends upward.
Gold prices are still low compared to debt as shown by the gold to population adjusted national debt ratio from the past 44 years. National debt is increasing rapidly, population is increasing slowly, and the gold to population adjusted national debt ratio seems likely to increase substantially from here. Hence gold prices will rally much higher, thanks to massive increases in debt, more currency in circulation, “money printing,” investor demand, higher energy prices, various worries and wars, and Asian demand.