RSSCategory: Category: Technicals

Gold’s Upswing In November Amid A Lower Trend Line

Gold’s Upswing In November Amid A Lower Trend Line

There is clearly an upswing present since early November, but defining this upswing is a challenge so a broad in the Raff Regression Channel. It does a pretty good job of defining direction and accounting for volatility, which we are seeing now. The lower trend line ends around 112 and I will mark support here. The long-term trend for gold is still down and GLD has a big resistance zone in the 115-116.50 area.

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Gold And Silver Jump On Bullish Price Action

Gold And Silver Jump On Bullish Price Action

What dominates the GLD chart is a bearish reverse flag formation. However, rather than executing with a breakdown below the flag, it broke out above the flag. When you see a bullish outcome to a bearish technical pattern it is a sign of positive momentum. This is confirmed by the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) which bottomed. A PMO bottom in oversold territory is generally a good set up.

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GLD and SLV Technical Picture for November 2014

GLD and SLV Technical Picture for November 2014

The GLD surged almost 3% on Friday, plunged over 2% on Monday and advanced 1.43% on Tuesday. There may be some support in the 110 area and the ETF is still quite oversold, but the bigger trend is down and this is the dominant force. I will leave first resistance in the 115 area

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Gold Is Extending Its October Run

Gold Is Extending Its October Run

The correction in the Dollar helped gold as the Gold SPDR GLD advanced over 5% from its early October low. The first chart shows GLD breaking the August trend line and moving back above the support break. In an interesting twist, gold is ignoring weakness in the Euro today and moving higher. While I am not sure if this will last, I would mark first support at 118 and stay positive on gold as long as this level holds. All bets are off if the Dollar breaks out to the upside.

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5 Reasons Why The Gold Price Could Have Bottomed at $1,180

5 Reasons Why The Gold Price Could Have Bottomed at $1,180

The yellow metal has fallen nearly 40% from its 2011 high above 1900 to trade below 1200 at the start of this week, mirroring Columbus’s own fall from grace as more of his transgressions have been brought to light. We wante to highlight five reasons that gold may not be irreparably damaged.

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Silver Breaks to the Downside in a Big Way – Technical Picture

Silver Breaks to the Downside in a Big Way – Technical Picture

The SILVER tracking ETF has penetrated major support and may well be leading the way lower for other precious metals. At the moment both the short-and intermediate KSTs are bearish and this is likely to put more downside pressure on the metal, notwithstanding any reflex rallies that might develop. The long-term series is flat but still above its moving average. However, the recent drop below support by the price itself is likely to place downward pressure on it.

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Technical Analysis: All Metals Weak, Gold Bull Market Over For Now

| September 29, 2014 | Category: Technicals
Technical Analysis: All Metals Weak, Gold Bull Market Over For Now

Additionally, we present again our major observation from last year that Gold structural bull markets appear (in the small sample available) to end with or near structural interest rate cycle reversals, whether with inflationary (rising rates) or deflationary (falling rates) environments. Given that we believe the falling interest rate cycle from 1980-1981 is in the process of reversing (transitions to rising interest rate cycles take from 2 to 14 years historically), it follows that the structural bull market for Gold is over.

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Insights From The 10 Year Gold, Silver And Dollar Chart

| September 25, 2014 | Category: Technicals
Insights From The 10 Year Gold, Silver And Dollar Chart

Buy fish line patterns, sell rhino horn patterns, and trust that politicians and bankers will continue to borrow and spend money that must be “printed” in ever-increasing quantities. Example: Official national debt increased by $1,013,588,000,000 in the one year from Sept. 23, 2013 to Sept. 22, 2014.
US Dollar: My expectation is that many more dollars must be created and consequently they will lose value against food, energy, and the commodities we need for daily living. Gold: My expectation is that gold can’t be printed into existence and that it will retain or increase its purchasing power over time. Silver: My expectation is that silver will become both more scarce and yet more essential to our economy, and that it will rally substantially from here.

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Is This A Triple Bottom In Gold?

| September 24, 2014 | Category: Technicals
Is This A Triple Bottom In Gold?

We do not intend these observations to imply a recommendation to buy gold, but as chartists we wait and watch for promising setups. In this case we can see something developing that may prove to be relief for long-suffering gold bulls. Those with interest in the yellow metal should watch it closely over the next few weeks.

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Elliott Wave Projection For Gold Price And US Dollar

| September 18, 2014 | Category: Technicals
Elliott Wave Projection For Gold Price And US Dollar

In this excellent market analysis, Trader MC points out that the current gold price, between $1192 and $1240, is trading at key levels. Patterns change with the psychology of the market and it is important to adjust in real time. He concludes that “the gold market structure should reveal itself very soon, we just have to be patient and let the market come to us.”

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Cycle Analysis Supports Both Bearish and Bullish Views On Gold and Silver

| September 16, 2014 | Category: Technicals
Cycle Analysis Supports Both Bearish and Bullish Views On Gold and Silver

As bearish as this sounds, there is a “rest of the story” in support of my view that we’re still at a major decision point for Gold. If June 2013 was the final capitulation low that ended the bear market, and I still believe that it was, it was followed by a retest in Dec 2013. Each cycle since has attracted fewer Short speculators and far less hedging…and that’s not bear market behavior. Such apathy and disinterest is often observed at – or after – bear market lows.

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Is The Fed About To Write the Next Chapter For Silver?

| September 16, 2014 | Category: Technicals
Is The Fed About To Write the Next Chapter For Silver?

Another $10B taper of the QE program is all-but-inevitable, so the key variable will be whether the central bank tweaks its statement to suggest that it may raise interest rates sooner. We’ll have a full Fed preview out later today, but if the Fed statement suggests earlier rate hikes are possible, the dollar may rally and silver could fall back into 18.25-50 support. On the other hand, a status-quo statement and press conference would disappoint dollar bulls, likely leading silver to break out of its bearish channel and target $19 in the short-term and potentially the $20 level in time.

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No Improvement Yet In The Latest Commitment of Traders Report

| September 13, 2014 | Category: Technicals
No Improvement Yet In The Latest Commitment of Traders Report

I must admit that I was more than underwhelmed by yesterday’s Commitment of Traders Report. Although the numbers were headed in the right direction in both silver and gold, they weren’t the big numbers that both Ted and I were expecting. In a word, it was disappointing, considering the fact that we carved new low ticks in both metals every day during the reporting week ending on Tuesday, June 9.

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Rising Dollar Weighing On Gold And Silver Price, But Short Term Reversal Possible

Rising Dollar Weighing On Gold And Silver Price, But Short Term Reversal Possible

A strong Dollar is also weighing on gold because the Gold SPDR is down around 6% from its early July high. Gold may be short-term oversold and the Dollar may be short-term overbought, but the trends are clear. The chart shows GLD within a falling channel the last two months. The lower trend line extends to the 120 area later this month. The upper trend line and a small buffer mark key resistance in the 125-125.5 area.

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