RSSCategory: Category: Technicals

Gold Cycles: Is It Different This Time?

| February 5, 2015 | Category: Technicals
Gold Cycles: Is It Different This Time?

At some point, it will be “different this time”, and we will see a change in Gold’s character that is reflected in a new bull trend. At that point, recent Investor Cycle history will no longer be relevant. Similar to a satellite in orbit that needs an event to alter its course, Gold will need some catalyst to escape the pull of the bear market. Until then, we can only be guided by history. The last 7 Investor Cycles show that once speculative positions have reached current levels (as seen in the COT report), the Investor Cycle has peaked.

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Gold On Its Way To $2347 Or $810?

Gold On Its Way To $2347 Or $810?

Two months ago, we explained to readers that it was “make or break time” for gold. Based on the Hidden Pivot Analysis methodology by Rick Ackerman, it would appear that gold should go either to $2347 or $810. Gold should explode to $2347 on the condition that the recent lows will not be breached; on the other hand, if gold breaks decisively below the recent lows, then the price of the yellow metal is heading to $810. Let’s see where gold stands actually. The ongoing price development favors the bullish scenario, but the jury is still out. As long as the November lows will hold, the bulls have the benefit of the doubt.

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Place Your Bets in April Gold

Place Your Bets in April Gold

The bounce from yesterday’s lows stalled at the 1280.20 midpoint pivot shown, but the rally target at1293.80 remains intact. Now, a fall below 1266.50, the point ‘C’ low of the rally pattern, would negate the target, but if the initial move on Tuesday pushes the futures above the red line for a second time, it would raise the odds of a follow-through to 1293.80 to 50-50. Alternatively, an enticing bottom-fishing bet would gel if the futures were to fall to1262.20, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a downtrend begun from A=1298.60.

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Timing Is The Most Important Element

| January 24, 2015 | Category: Technicals
Timing Is The Most Important Element

Has a bottom been confirmed? Not by our standard of confirmation, although January has made an impact in viewing the lows of November 2014 as a potential bottom. There has been a decided change in market behavior not seen since the decline off the 2011 highs.

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Gold Breaks Above Its 6 Month Downtrend Line

Gold Breaks Above Its 6 Month Downtrend Line

The Gold Tracking ETF GLD finally broke above a downtrend line today. The chart shows that gold broke above the 6 month downtrend line. However, it is still trying to break above the red trend line which would mark a breakout above a basing area for GLD.

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Gold And Silver Get Short Term Oversold Bounce

Gold And Silver Get Short Term Oversold Bounce

The Gold SPDR got a big bounce on the 26th, but remains in a downtrend overall. The upper line of the Raff Regression Channel marks the first resistance area in the 115.2 area. I will leave key resistance in the 116-116.5 area for now. The Silver ETF has resistance in the 15.5-15.7 area.

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Technical Gold Price Target For 2015

Technical Gold Price Target For 2015

The monthly gold chart shows its second descending triangle from the last three years. Gold is testing support right now. The important take away from this chart is that a break of this descending triangle would result in a price target into the 950-1000 area. Resistance is set at 1260; a breakout above 1260 would negate this target.

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Silver’s Technical Outlook Shows A Potential Bullish Setup

Silver’s Technical Outlook Shows A Potential Bullish Setup

If silver does manage to bounce back from any of these support levels, it could go on to break the bearish trend line before embarking on a rally towards $18.80 level – this being the meeting point of the 200-day moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the last downswing.

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Gold Asset Markets Showing Signs Of Fatigue

Gold Asset Markets Showing Signs Of Fatigue

Gold has had a chance to rally but some of the components of the gold asset markets are now starting to show some signs of fatigue. The price itself , as represented by the Gold Trust ETF, the GLD, looks as though it is trying to form an inverse head and shoulders. In order for this bullish pattern to be completed we would need to see a break above the $120. The hesitating KST in the lower panel throws some doubt on the possibility of the pattern being completed.

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Gold Will Either Go To $2347 Or $810

Gold Will Either Go To $2347 Or $810

Is it make or break time for gold. Based on the Hidden Pivot Analysis Method by Rick Ackerman, gold will either explode to $2347 on the condition that the recent lows will not be breached. If gold breaks decisively below the recent lows, then the price of the yellow metal is heading to $810.

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Technical View On Gold’s Recent Breakout

Technical View On Gold’s Recent Breakout

It is unclear how long this rally in gold will last, but our indicators are confirming positive momentum. The Trend Model will not move from its intermediate- and long-term SELL signals until the 20-EMA has a positive crossover the 50-EMA. That would generate an intermediate-term Trend Model BUY signal. The long-term Trend Model will not change from a SELL signal until the 50-EMA crosses above the 200-EMA. That will require an extended gold rally in order to get those long-term EMAs to cross over.

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Wedge Breakout In Gold

Wedge Breakout In Gold

The long-term trend remains down for the Gold SPDR (GLD), but the ETF got a wedge breakout over the last two days and surged to the upper trend line of a rising channel. I would not call this resistance, but it does represent a sort of short-term overbought area. The wedge low marks key support at 114. The indicator window shows the Silver ETF (SLV) also getting a breakout with the surge above 16.

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U.S. Jobs Report Hits Euro, Bonds And Gold

U.S. Jobs Report Hits Euro, Bonds And Gold

Non-farm payrolls for November surged to 321,000, which was the biggest monthly gain since January 2012. This positive news on the labor market weighed on the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF, the Euro ETF and the Gold SPDR. Bonds were down because this puts more pressure on the Fed to raise rates in the middle of 2015. The Euro was down because US economy is growing much faster than the European economy and demand for Dollars is outpacing demand for Euros. Gold was down because the Dollar was up and there is less demand for a safe haven.

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Rising Gold And US Dollar. Will The Impossible Continue?

Rising Gold And US Dollar. Will The Impossible Continue?

In the last two weeks, we are seeing the impossible–a rise in the gold price and the US dollar. This isn’t as impossible as it seems–we’ve seen this before, from late 2009 to about mid-2010. It was a good time to be invested in gold equities. Notice that during the impossible trend in the past, gold and USDX never rose together for more than two consecutive weeks. The move was seemed to be a series of cycles and countercycles, over which both parameters increased. As I’ve argued previously, rising gold and US dollar is the most economically favourable environment for gold equities–particularly those with production. If the number of dollars you receive per unit of gold increases, and at the same time the value of those dollars increases, your revenue increase will reflect both inputs.

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