Author Archive: Dan Norcini

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Goldman Sachs issues “Buy” on Gold; Gold drops lower

Interesting recommendation by Goldman and even more interesting to see the market reaction in gold today. Can you say that someone is particularly overjoyed by the opportunity to take that recommendation? By the way, Goldman is echoing the remarks from Chairman Bernanke the other day and repeating what my interpretation of those remarks were in this week’s comments entitled, “Pass the Juice Please”. Goldman’s views in summary can be translated as follows: Gold market weakness has been tied to the fact that the markets were expecting “REAL INTEREST RATES” to rise in light of the recent economic data showing improvement in the US economy. However, the economic recovery is not […]

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Pass the Juice Please

| March 26, 2012 | Articles: Insights

In news this morning that most of the gold community was completely expecting I might add , Chairman ‘Easy Money Ben’ Bernanke announced this morning that he was concerned whether economic recovery was strong enough to sustain itself without supportive and accomodative monetary policy. Translation – near zero interest rates will remain as far as the eye can see. Talk about messing with the heads of the Fed Funds Futures traders – they are getting beat to death by this Fed. Every single time they start anticipating a rise in the short term interest rates based on economic data releases, some one or more of the Fed governors comes down from his or her […]

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HUI – deeply oversold and nearing support

HUI – deeply oversold and nearing support

The mining shares have been absolutely obliterated over the course of the last couple of months as their longsuffering owners can all too sadly attest.The carnage however has dropped the index deeply into oversold territory on the weekly price chart. I…

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Slowing Global Growth was the Theme Today

Slowing Global Growth was the Theme Today

Overnight news out of China and out of Europe detailing slower than expected growth was the catalyst that served to upset the apple cart of the equity market bulls in today’s trading session. It also led to further hedge fund selling of commodities in …

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UP and UP she goes – where she stops nobody knows

| March 17, 2012 | Articles: Insights
UP and UP she goes – where she stops nobody knows

I am becoming more and more convinced that the US Monetary Authorities have engaged in a process which is resulting in the formation of another bubble, this time once again in the US equity markets. Think back over the last decade+ and what w…

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Bond Collapse Continues

| March 15, 2012 | Articles: Insights
Bond Collapse Continues

Much to the chagrin of the Federal Reserve, bond traders are taking that FOMC statement from yesterday and taking no prisoners as they literally hammer the long bond into submission. I find it a bit ironic (to be honest I am gleeful about it) that the …

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Comments on the Gold Chart – 2nd March 2012

Comments on the Gold Chart – 2nd March 2012

The Daily Chart is pretty clear as to the larger resistance and support levels. Those remain the same as they had been previous to the strong upside moves on Monday and Tuesday of this week. The sell off was contained on the downside by the same level support that has held for over a month now. Value buyers continue to surface near and just below the $1700 level. Reports of very strong increases in physical offtake are surfacing out of Asia on such dips in price. This buying is not of the nature that it chases prices higher; that requires the momentum crowd (hedge funds in particular) many of which […]

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S&P 500 keeps marching higher – shrugs off downside reversal

S&P 500 keeps marching higher – shrugs off downside reversal

Yesterday the S&P 500 give a hint that it might be forming a sort of interim top as it shot to a brand new 52 week high only to move steadily lower throughout the rest of the session closing below the preivous day’s low. That constitutes a downside reversal day on the price chart, normally a powerful bearish signal.Once again, as has often been the case in this market, once the liquidity spigots are wide open, no downside followthrough was seen. Early in the overnight session there was some light selling but nothing heavy. Today, this market is once again working on testing yet another new 52 week high. The […]

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Gold holds at support near $1700

Gold holds at support near $1700

Gold thus far is holding quite well on the technical price charts as the $100 break in price has apparently revived the huge physical market buyers who are seeing value in the metal near the $1700 level.A closing push through $1725 would be constructive and would set the market up for another test of the resistance barrier near the $1750 level, which held the market in check prior to last week’s breakout.Considering the spanking that this market received yesterday, it is showing very good resilience. Author: Trader Dan

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Silver back to knocking on the door of chart resistance again

Silver back to knocking on the door of chart resistance again

This is a rather remarkable price chart and what can only be called remarkable price action on display. As you all know by now, silver was absolutely obliterated yesterday resulting in the total erasure of the huge breakout rally from Tuesday. Such occurrences are very uncommon from a purely technical analysis perspective. More often than not, such a breakout will see some initial profit taking followed by another burst of buying as momentum based buying kicks into high gear. To witness a market completely undo such a breakout on massive volume  and then to experience only minor additional downside pressure is also something that one rarely sees. We are getting a […]

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Silver Chart Analysis – 29th February 2012

Silver Chart Analysis – 29th February 2012

Following is an 8 hour chart of the front month silver contract (that will be changing to May from March) detailing the technical action. All of the readers know by now that the commodity complex was being targetted by the Fed in today’s comments coming from Chairman Bernanke. Prior to his testimony in front of the House Committee, silver was trading higher recovering from some mild profit taking late in yesterday’s session and into early Asian trading in the evening. This is normal in a market especially after having put in a strong upside breakout on heavy volume from a recent consolidation pattern. Dip buyers came back in taking the […]

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Bernanke tries talking down commodities

Today was Fed Chairman Bernanke’s chance to testisfy before the Congress’ Financial Services Committee. Here is a quick synopsis of his comments as I see them. “The economy is getting better based on what we can see of the employment numbers but it is not growing at a fast enough clip to justify any immediate change in our accomodative monetary policy. The uptick in hiring has been helped by this policy and any change to it at the present time is not warranted. Real Estate is still a concern. Us fiscal condition is dire and faces a serious challenge at the end of this year. Inflation is not a concern […]

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Gold Stock Index HUI still stuck below resistance

Gold Stock Index HUI still stuck below resistance

Gold and silver mining shares are moving higher today, especially silver shares, but the HUI is still lagging from a technical analysis perspective. It just cannot seem to clear this stubborn level near the 555-560 region. If you note on the chart, this band of horizontal resistance also corresponds exactly with the downside gap that opened up in early December of last year. This gap is currently serving as a barrier for further upside progress. We will have to watch to see whether bulls in mining shares are feeling confident enough to try to mark these things up agains the hedge fund ratio spread traders. One would have expected a […]

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The Gold-Silver Ratio is strongly favoring Silver

The Gold-Silver Ratio is strongly favoring Silver

See the following chart and the comments therein. Author: Trader Dan  

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