Author Archive: Dan Norcini

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Gold Probing the $1550 Level

Gold Probing the $1550 Level

Gold has continued to see further selling in today’s session with traders once again exiting “RISK” trades in favor of the “Growth Off” or RISK AVERSION trades. Long commodity positions, along with long equities, are getting liquidated with money flows heading towards US Treasuries in general. This can be seen in the CCI, the Continuous Commodity Index, which is moving lower while bonds move higher, taking interest rates down even further as the yield on the Ten Year is now down below the 1.80% level. Remember, there has not been a week yet during which this yield ENDED BELOW that critical level. Gold’s move down towards $1550 has in the […]

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Silver Chart and Comments of 11 March 2012

Silver Chart and Comments of 11 March 2012

Silver continues to be the poor poster child for the Deflation or Risk Aversion Trade. It’s chart is abysmal at this point as it has steadily retreated since peaking near $50 in what seems a lifetime ago. About the only positive thing that can be said about it is that is had not been below the $26 level for some time now. That level still seems to be bringing in buyers. Unless something changes rather drastically over the next week, it looks like it is going to once again test the resolve of those buyers that have been busy down there. If it holds, fine; if not, it would get […]

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HUI Gold Stock index: chart and comments on 8 May 2012

HUI Gold Stock index: chart and comments on 8 May 2012

The HUI is reeling once again as it continues losing value against the price of an ounce of gold bullion. The index has fallen below chart support at the round number of 400 and is currently near the lows of the day as I write this. As you can see from the following chart, it is approaching what I consider to be one of the most significant levels of chart support from a technical analysis perspective, and that is the critical 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The mining shares as a whole, have now retraced exactly HALF of all their gains from the bottom that was produced back in late 2008 […]

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Gold Chart and Comments – May 4th

Gold Chart and Comments – May 4th

Today’s payrolls number was just as rotten, if not more so, than most traders and analysts had been expecting. The numbers coming out of the private firms were indicating this and they were very accurate. The problem is that the jobs number was even worse than nearly anyone had anticipated so we did get a very strong reaction in the equity markets with bulls running to the hills sending up smoke signals (this one is for that famous native American running for the Senate in Mass.)  for Mr. Bernanke and company to come and save them. Alas, Mr. Bernanke must have been over sipping some latte at Starbucks as he was no where to be […]

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Takedown in Gold Price today Rejected

Takedown in Gold Price today Rejected

Take a look at the following 5 minute chart and note especially the volume readings posted below each individual price bar. Look just past the 5:00 AM Pacific time hour and you will see the enormous volume spike accompanying the sharp downdraft that occured in the gold price dropping it $15 in the course of minutes. Analysts are still grasping for an explanation. The most common is that it was another one of those “fat fingered trades”. Have you ever noticed how many fat fingered human beings apparently camp out in the trading community. Last time I checked a skinny finger could hit an “enter” key just as easily as […]

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Gold seeing some strength

Gold seeing some strength

Gold appears to be catching some decent buying in today’s session – buying that has been strong enough to take it out of the range within it has been trading for approximately the last ten days or so. Note the resistance levels shown on the chart and you can see the progress. It still has a big hurdle to clear if it is going to get any fireworks going and that hurdle remains the same as it has been for some time now, namely the region up near $1680. It seems that Central Bank buying below the market has shored up support on the chart. One gets the impression that […]

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RISK OFF Trades hitting the Commodity Sector

RISK OFF Trades hitting the Commodity Sector

Investors/traders are growing increasingly concerned about an overall global economic slowdown. This morning’s Retail Sales number had temporarily cheered them with higher equities coming in on that news but then the fall of the NAHB housing market index (the first in seven months I might add) soured them rather quickly and led to increased selling pressure being seen in the broader equity markets as well as the commodity complex. Even gasoline has thus far not been immune to the pressure. The result of this has seen the CCI moving back towards the critical low made late last year. You might recall that as the year 2011 wound down, many speculators […]

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Pre-Easter Weekend Comments

Pre-Easter Weekend Comments

Today’s Payrolls number for the month of March came in at 120K, far less than the market was expecting. The response of those futures markets which were still open for trading was swift and immediate – Emini S&P 500 futures dropped sharply while th…

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Weekly Gold Chart 5 April 2012

Weekly Gold Chart 5 April 2012

Gold did not have a good week falling below chart support at the 50 week moving average for only the second time since the bottom made way back in late 2008/early 2009. As you can see, since then it had only violated this important chart level onc…

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Swiss National Bank intervenes to undercut Franc Strength

Swiss National Bank intervenes to undercut Franc Strength

While the Swiss Franc is lower today against the Dollar (as is the case with all of the European  majors), it has been gaining against the Euro as nervous investors in Europe weigh further escalation in the region’s ongoing sovereign debt crisis.N…

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Food Inflation back in the News

Food Inflation back in the News

Reuters is carrying an article discussing the rising cost of food ( By the way, the US monetary authorities all tell us that is not true as their parrots have trained them to repeat the words. “there is no inflation; inflation is subdued”) in an articl…

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Today’s comments 5 April 2012

Today’s comments 5 April 2012

The mining shares continue being pummelled to the point where one wonders who is left in the sector to sell them at these levels.Take a look at the following chart and marvel:How many of us who were trading the shares can forget what happened to them b…

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The FOMC Strikes Again

The FOMC Strikes Again

All one needs to know about how the Fed is attempting to knock down the price of commodities in general was demonstrated in today’s FOMC minutes.The idea that I believe it wants to keep uppermost in the mind of traders is that the US economy is recover…

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Gold Chart 3 April 2012

Gold Chart 3 April 2012

Gold managed to claw its way back above important technical resistance near the $1680 level in today’s trade and is thus far holding above that number, albeit just barely. The market needs to push away from $1680 with some conviction and demonstrate th…

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