Author Archive: Dan Norcini

rss feed

Author's Website

Gold Still Stuck near $1785 – $1800

| September 29, 2012 | Articles: Gold Silver Prices
Gold Still Stuck near $1785 – $1800

Over the last two weeks, gold has had some difficulty clearing the stubborn resistance level beginning near $1785 and extending towards $1800, round number psychological resistance. It has poked its head into this zone but cannot breach it as of yet. When examining the chart it is not difficult to understand the significance of this region. Note that there have been two occasions in the last year, one back towards October 2011 and the other earlier this year in Jan/Feb, when gold either punched through this level or came extremely near to it, but failed to close ABOVE it.   Look carefully at what happened the following week after the […]

Continue Reading

Gold Firm but Unable to Continue through Upside Resistance

| September 25, 2012 | Articles: Gold Silver Prices
Gold Firm but Unable to Continue through Upside Resistance

Gold is trading firmly today as risk appetite is back on after a bit of a hiccup yesterday. Many investors/traders are growing a bit more sanguine about the impact of any QE program and are still concerned about slowing global economic growth in spite of Central Bank actions to stimulate borrowing and spending. That is leading to more two-sided trade in gold, and in silver I might add, as traders sort out clues to see which direction the economy might be taking. Frankly, I think it is pathetic that we have reached a point in our nation’s history that the actions of the Fed have so discombobulated common sense. No […]

Continue Reading

Gold And Silver Fail to hold Resistance Levels

| September 23, 2012 | Articles: Gold Silver Prices
Gold And Silver Fail to hold Resistance Levels

Both of the precious metals had mustered enough energy to finally best those respective chart resistance levels earlier in today’s session but were repelled around midmorning and unable to keep their footing above important chart resistance. It sure seems to be, based on the price action, that there was extremely heavy capping action occuring. It seems to me that the noteworthy strength in the mining sector as evidenced by the robust performance of the HUI has given the bulls a great deal of confidence in stepping up to buy the dips in both metals. Gold has now entered firmly into a zone in which we can expect opposition all the way to […]

Continue Reading

HUI looks strong – Following S&P 500 Higher

| September 19, 2012 | Articles: Gold Silver Stocks
HUI looks strong – Following S&P 500 Higher

The mining shares are seeing some very good inflows of speculative money. The result has been an advance for 8 out of the last 9 weeks. The chart shows the index blowing through resistance levels with relative ease with the next Fibonacci retracement level within striking distance. As the trend is higher, we would expect dips in price to be bought. Initial support for the index is down near the 50% retracement level that comes in near the 505 region. AT some point longs will decide to take some money off the table after a run of this nature but as to where and when this will occur, we will […]

Continue Reading

Hedge Fund Silver Positions

| September 17, 2012 | Articles: Gold Silver Prices
Hedge Fund Silver Positions

Here is the latest breakdown of the hedge fund positions in the Silver market at the Comex based on Friday’s COT data. Speculative money flows continue into Silver as hedge fund managers position themselves further on the long side of the market and continue reducing their short side exposure.   Author: Dan Norcini  

Continue Reading

HUI Technical Chart

| September 15, 2012 | Articles: Gold Silver Stocks
HUI Technical Chart

The HUI is closing in on a KEY technical resistance level on its weekly chart at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of its last year summer high and this years trough. That level is basically right at the high made in today’s session as it comes in beginning at the 504 level. If the HUI closes the week through this level on a good strong note, look for the index to move towards the 540 level. Note that all of the major moving averages, whether the shorter term 10 and 20 week or the 50 week moving average are either turning higher or flattening out and beginning to turn.

Continue Reading

Bonds Might Have Topped Out, for Good

| September 15, 2012 | Articles: Gold Silver Prices
Bonds Might Have Topped Out, for Good

Today’s price action in the long bond is highly suggesting that the multi-decade bull market in US bonds is over. The inflationary impact off three successive experiments in Quantitative Easing has seemed to have finally gotten the attention of that endangered species once known as the bond vigilante. Remember, this latest round of QE is not targetting US Treasuries but rather agency debt. That removes a major source of demand. With the US Dollar falling apart thanks to a deliberate attempt by the Fed to debauch it, buyers, particularly foreign buyers, are going to demand higher rates to compensate them for the currency risk. Either way, today is shaping up […]

Continue Reading

The Fed and the ECB determine to Destroy the Middle Class

| September 13, 2012 | Articles: Gold Silver Prices
The Fed and the ECB determine to Destroy the Middle Class

While Wall Street cheers the actions by the Fed to further enlarge its already bloated Balance Sheet, those of us who live on Main Street should get accustomed to further increases in our food and energy costs. What I find rather perverse, is the statement by the FOMC that “longer term inflation expectations remain stable”. Yeah, maybe on the salaries and wages front but sure as hell not on the raw materials front. Take a look at where hedge fund money is now flowing – right back into the hard or tangible assets category again. Get used to higher gasoline and heating oil prices and brace yourself for the food […]

Continue Reading

Are Commodities coming Back in Vogue?

| September 10, 2012 | Articles: Gold Silver Prices
Are Commodities coming Back in Vogue?

The following chart of the Continuous Commodity Index ( CCI ) shows a sector that apparently is catching the attention of the hedge fund community once again as risk trades come back into favor courtesy of what seems to be another wave of money printing/bond buying about to launch. Notice that the price rally from the late spring low down near 503 first cleared the 25% Fibonacci Retracement level off the drop from the 2011 peak near 692. Instead of falling back through that level and making another fresh leg lower, the market bounced right off that same 25% retracement level and then spiked higher taking out the 38.2% retracement […]

Continue Reading

Gold Hits $ 1700 and Eases off a Bit

Gold Hits $ 1700 and Eases off a Bit

Gold bulls managed to push the yellow metal to the psychologically significant $1700 for the first time in months. As can be expected, it could not hold ABOVE the level as selling from both fresh short sellers and some profit taking from longs, surfaced on the first approach to this round number. Gold has a history of pausing around these even or round numbers, retreating, consolidating a bit, and then pushing through and moving to the next resistance level on the charts. It looks to me like the weakness in the gold mining stocks in today’s session, which are feeling spillover from the generally lower stock market, is enabling the […]

Continue Reading

Silver Breaks its Downtrend

Silver Breaks its Downtrend

For nearly the last year and a half, silver has been in a sustained downtrend in price although it has managed to find a floor of support near the $26 level. This week it has finally broken that downtrend. If this metal is going to begin a sustained rally, any setback in price should find buying emerge near the downsloping blue line shown on the chart. Failure to hold this level and particularly now the $30 level, will see the metal fall back into that triangle formation with support then coming in down closer to $28. Note that the metal is now trading above the 50 week moving average while […]

Continue Reading

Bernanke Jawboning the Markets

| September 1, 2012 | Articles: Insights

The long awaited speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at the Jackson Hole Summit has come and gone without any definitive action being announced. However, the Helicopter Man let it be known that he believes the first two rounds of QE were a rousing success. Once again he promised that the Fed stands ready to act if the economic conditions or data warrant it. As usual, the markets, hungry for more of the spiked punch bowl, wasted no time in casting off their initial disappointment with a huge round of indiscriminate buying directed at the risk asset categories. Gold blew through tough overhead resistance at $1680 and looks like it […]

Continue Reading

Hedge Fund Silver Shorts getting Squeezed Out

Hedge Fund Silver Shorts getting Squeezed Out

Take a look at the following charts of the positions of the hedge fund community in the silver market and notice what has happened to them as a result of the break of overhead resistance levels on the technical price charts. Shorts are being forced out as fresh longs invade the market. You should also note that this data does not include today’s HUGE move higher which no doubt caught a large number of fresh top pickers off guard. Author: Dan Norcini  

Continue Reading

Euro Gold closing in on its All Time High

Euro Gold closing in on its All Time High

The following chart reveals the strength of gold when priced in terms of the Euro Currency. Notice that it has been steadily working higher and is within striking distance of an overhead resistance level coming in just shy of 1350. If can push through this level, it should be able to match or exceed its all time high. It has been in a consolidation pattern since late last year but with a definite higher bias as can be seen from the series of higher lows riding along the lower red support line. Notice that mini-trend higher has accelerated since April of this year.

Continue Reading