Author Archive: Rick Ackerman
Yesterday’s rally was the most promising we’ve seen on the hourly chart in weeks. It surpassed no fewer than four prior peaks without taking a breather; moreover, the pullback has been shallow so far. We’ve been short this vehicle with an 1176 basis, but the current stop-loss at 1093.70 should be closely minded, since even moderate strength on Friday could trigger it. If so, it would give us a theoretical gain of $9300 on the position upon exit. If the rally is for real, bulls should be able to move the futures easily past1086.50 Thursday night.
For if the futures cannot bounce at least $30 after piercing 1073.70, I’d infer they are on their way down to 1044.50 at least; and thence to an obligatory test of $1000, where they haven’t been for six years. Below this watershed sit two more targets, either of which could mark the end of the bear market begun in August 2011: 971.35 (see inset) or, my worst case, 817.50.
Monday’s moderate weakness looks innocuous in the context of the bullishness of the 240-minute chart shown. Notice that the presumptive C-D phase of the rally begun from 1081.40 in early August stalled precisely at the 1141.90 midpoint pivot. This confirms the authority and reliability of the pattern itself, while also shortening the odds that a decisive push past p would go at least to p2=1164.00, or to D=1186.10 if any higher.
What would it take to turn this picture short-term bullish? Answer: a pop today or tomorrow exceeding the 1126.00 high that I’ve labeled. Whatever the case, 1094.50 can be bottom-fished with a tight stop — more aggressively if you’ve been short for the ride to it.
So with all due respect to those of you who see gold as just another imminent general commodity liquidation away from $850 or lower, I think that is not exactly the way it is going to play out. We may see more sell-off coming as current conditions develop; yes, I may still be a little early; but gold still represents the ultimate store of value for liquid capital.
Gold’s punk price action this week has turned me mildly skeptical, but I’ll follow the bullish lead of a chat room denizen who saw encouraging signs on Thursday. He posted as follows: “Just to let you guys know, [something happened that] I haven’t seen in a very, very long time: NUGT is up 16%, many of the miners I follow…are up quite a bit, and Gold is not down. This is a telltale sign that Gold…is ready for a launch.”
December Gold appears to be consolidating for a push above 1200 in the weeks ahead. Notice that although the futures gave back most of yesterday’s modest rally by day’s end, the intraday high poked slightly above an ‘external’ peak at 1169.00 recorded back in early July. This generated a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, implying that the pullback from Monday’s high is likely to produce a follow-through rally leg. Were it to equal the rally off mid-August’s 1108.50 low, the futures could trade as high as 1206.00 by month’s end or early September.
I’ve been bearish on gold for so long that my successively lower targets have become almost perfunctory. Lately, I’ve focused on a ‘Hidden Pivot’ target at $817, the attainment of which would presumably wash out the last of the die-hard bulls, clearing the way for a resumption of the long-term bull market. Now, however, I am obliged to consider an alternative possibility — i.e., an explosive move without the washout. Although I lack the imagination to envision such world-shaking news as might cause this to happen, I credit a relatively recent Rick’s Picks subscriber, Michael Gibbons, with jarring me awake.
The bearish target at 1059.70 (see chart) seems clear and compelling to me — so much so as to beg the question of why the futures have been thrashing around for the last two weeks just above it. Is this a bullish consolidation? A bearish distribution? Regardless, it is happening in an odd place relative to some clear Hidden Pivot support and resistance levels
Friday’s rebound looked ever-so-slightly promising, since it followed a moderate selloff that did not quite achieve its ‘D’ target, 1064.00. Now, if bulls can push this erstwhile cinder block above the two peaks shown, it would generate an impulse leg with enough vigor, perhaps, to power a rally into week’s end. The burden of proof will remain on bulls nonetheless, and it should be noted that the last such impulse leg, in mid-June, sputtered out almost immediately, giving way to a $125 decline.
Sellers effortlessly demolished the sturdy-looking Hidden Pivot support at 1135.00 that we’d been using as a minimum downside target. This augurs more weakness over the near term, presumably to the 1125.20 target shown. A tradable bounce is very likely, since, as you may recall, it coincides with a very major Hidden Pivot support that comes from the monthly chart. I’ve drum-rolled this target before, since its decisive breach would portend more slippage to a least 917.30, and possibly to 817.50, the number I’ve been using as a worst-case low for the bear market begun in the fall of 2011.
I’ve been using an $817 target for Comex Gold since September 2013. If the futures were to fall to that price, it would represent a 32% decline from current levels of around $1193 and a 57% decline from the all-time high of $1920 achieved in September 2011. A fall to $817 is by no means a done deal, however.
The 1183.40 downside target given here yesterday allowed subscribers to get long four ticks off the intraday low. Since I received reports of actual fills in the chat room, I’m establishing a tracking position: long two contracts with a cost basis of 1180.90.
So far, the low of the 43-month-old bear market is 1134.10, leaving about $13 of room before we have reason for deep concern. And just to be sure, I’ll stipulate that the June contract close beneath 1120.50 for two consecutive months before we assume the 808.50 target is in play. Meanwhile, that midpoint support should be regarded not only as a minimum downside objective for now, but as a potential spot to try bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss.