Author Archive: Jordan Roy-Byrne

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Are Junior Gold Stocks Following 2008-2009 Recovery?

Are Junior Gold Stocks Following 2008-2009 Recovery?

Are Junior Gold Stocks Following 2008-2009 Recovery? Weeks ago precious metals began a correction amid overbought conditions (in the miners) and very bullish sentiment in the metals. The recent Fed minutes helped accelerate the weakness but it lost steam in recent days. A real stinker of a jobs report completely reversed the thought that the Fed would hike rates in the summer and it sent precious metals surging. As a result, the gold stocks and junior gold stocks especially could be back on the path to making new highs before autumn. Below we show our junior gold index bull analog chart. It is a custom index of 18 stocks with […]

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Can Gold Climb to $1400/oz?

Can Gold Climb to $1400/oz?

At the start of 2016, renowned fund manager and bond king Jeff Gundlach predicted Gold would surge to $1400/oz. That was quite the call considering Gold was still in a bear market. He reiterated his target a few days ago in a webcast. Gold closed the week below $1260/oz after reaching as high as $1287/oz following the ECB decision. Corrections in both Gold and gold stocks have been limited to swift declines lasting no more than two days. While we cannot predict the future, we think there is some chance that Gold could reach Gundlach’s target before a sustained correction. Below is the Gold recovery analog chart or bull analog […]

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Gold Stocks Reverse at Resistance Targets

Gold Stocks Reverse at Resistance Targets

Two weeks ago, regarding the miners we wrote: If it (GDXJ) surpasses its 80-week moving average then its next target is $27-$28. Meanwhile, GDX is holding above previous resistance at $18. Its next strong resistance targets are $21 and $22. Earlier today GDX and GDXJ came within pennies of $21 and $29 respectively while Gold touched $1280 before reversing. While Gold and gold stocks could continue a bit higher, their rebound may have ended Friday morning. A weekly candle chart of GDXJ and GDX is below. The miners over the past six weeks have formed six white candles and taken out their 80-week moving averages, which contained the strongest rallies […]

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US Dollar Rebound Increases Near-Term Risk

US Dollar Rebound Increases Near-Term Risk

Last week we noted that the odds favored more upside in precious metals before a larger correction would begin. While that view remains on track, we want to note the renewed strength in the US Dollar which could provide immediate resistance to higher levels in Gold and gold stocks. The chart below plots the weekly candles for the US$ index and the net speculative position in the US$ index. The US$ index closed back above its 200-day moving average (97) and remains well above its 400-day (or 80-week moving average). The larger consolidation appears to be an ascending triangle which is a bullish continuation pattern. Upon breakout through 100, the […]

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When Will Gold and Gold Stocks Correct?

When Will Gold and Gold Stocks Correct?

by Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT Wednesday evening we raised a question in a subscriber update. We wrote: The current question for Gold and gold stocks is if they will push to higher targets before or a correction or if a correction has already started. We should know the answer in the next day or two. The gold stocks exploded higher on Thursday. GDX gained 6% while GDXJ surged 7.4%. Meanwhile, Gold solidified its support at $1200/oz. Markets that become overbought within strong trends can become extremely overbought before they correct. Recent price action in the precious metals complex argues that the path of least resistance in the short term continues to […]

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New Bull Market in Gold on Track

New Bull Market in Gold on Track

Last week we focused on the gold stocks. There was more initial evidence of a new bull market there than in Gold. However, Thursday Gold erased some doubts as it rocketed above $1200/oz and to as high as $1264/oz before settling a bit lower. That move puts Gold’s recovery on par with those following past major lows and offers greater confirmation that a new bull market is underway. The chart below plots the recoveries from 1976 and 2008 and puts them on the same scale as the current rebound. Note how those recoveries surged well above $1200/oz within three months. Moreover, note how $1200/oz served as a pivot point for […]

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Something Has Changed in Gold Stocks

Something Has Changed in Gold Stocks

In our missive last week we noted that: While good things are happening under the surface for Gold, its lack of a strong rebound in recent months argues that such a rebound is in the future but not imminent. Gold’s steady downtrend could resume in the next week or two. As we know, the precious metals complex enjoyed another very strong week. Gains in the metals were somewhat muted in comparison to the gains in the miners. GDX and GDXJ surged nearly 16% and 11% respectively. Last week we said nothing has changed. This week figures to be the week something did change and definitely so for the miners. The […]

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Gold Could Lose Safe-Haven Bid as Equities Rebound

Gold Could Lose Safe-Haven Bid as Equities Rebound

Gold and Silver have held up well during the recent selloff in equities. From December 28 through Wednesday the broad NYSE lost 10.4% while the S&P 500 lost 9.6%. Precious Metals gained strength during that period. Gold advanced 3.0% while Silver gained 1.7%. Gold relative to the NYSE broke its downtrend and touched an 11-month high. Gold relative to global equities (excluding the US market) reached a 2-year high. Precious metals have clearly benefitted from the equity selloff but therefore figure to lose strength as the equity market begins a relief rally. Equities have become very oversold and are forming a bullish reversal. The weekly candle chart of the S&P […]

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Silver & Gold Stocks Dangerously Close to Breakdown

Silver & Gold Stocks Dangerously Close to Breakdown

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT The fledgling rebound in the precious metals complex suddenly reversed course. Since the intraday peak last Thursday, gold stocks (GDX and GDXJ) declined about 13% while Gold lost $1100/oz and today (Thursday) $1080/oz. Silver, which did not mount much of a rebound to begin with remains mired below $13/oz. Gold is showing increasing relative strength (as we noted last week) and that is a good thing. However, the poor performance from Silver and sudden sharp reversal in the gold miners signals that the sector is on the cusp of making new lows. Let me start with Silver, a market I have not covered in recent missives. The […]

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2016 Outlook for Precious Metals

| December 31, 2015 | Articles: Insights
2016 Outlook for Precious Metals

by Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT The precious metals sector will close 2015 entrenched in a seemingly forever bear market. Most of the sector has been in a bear market for over four and a half years. Gold’s bear market will reach four and a half years in a few months. Meanwhile the US Dollar’s bull market remains strong and is likely to continue. In this article we discuss our 2016 big picture outlook for the US Dollar, Gold and gold stocks. The US Dollar index will be a major focus of 2016. The greenback is currently consolidating and correcting below important resistance at 100. A strong break above 100 could trigger […]

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